Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! Last week was brutal for us the track was sloppy, the picks were worse. This is 2 weeks in a row, that I have publicly struggled to put the readers on the winners. My selections won 5 out of 9 races, so the capping is there, just a few bobs and weaves away from a great day. Last week I had PARADE FIELD in the 5th who paid $20 to win, but I let the jockey change sway my opinions so much, I was negative. I usually will let a jockey downgrade affect me more than an upgrade, because I feel like we see more bad rides from mediocre jocks than great rides from good ones. Perhaps a fault, but one I can admit. With that said, we have 6 weeks to get green, and only a horse or two away from being there already. Good luck everyone!
Last Week ago: 9-1-2-10 11% (4/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $9 returned net -9.00) $1.00 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 72-14-12-7 19.4% (33/72 ITM) ($144 wagered, $94.20 returned) net -$49.80) $1.30 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
4 CANDY CARLOS- This card opens with a short horse as my top pick. Comes back to claiming ranks after in the money finishes in two low level allowance races. Third start from the layoff, after 2 respectable finishes, should be able to get the job done today. Most consistent horse in this field by far.
1 SECRET TOUCH- Gelding did not like the first trip in Arkansas but has steadily improved in the mornings until last week. I would expect this Eurton entry to be sharper than we saw in February, as I question the horses conditioning in that start. Adds blinkers today, which is a very profitable move for this barn.
5 ATTENTIVE- 4-year-old colt has some Remington Park back class, to the point I am very curious. Gets some relief from that last outing and will benefit from it. Might need this start to be ready to fire a win, but worth watching and adding to the stable if this horse improves from that March 1 effort.
Race 2
Do we have to bet this race? If not, then I respectfully skip this race. If we cannot then, I stay very narrow and hope for the best. The 2 ML favorites are not worth the price they are at, and do not have 9/5 chance of winning in my opinion.
3 DRAMATIC EXPERIENCE- 3rd career start and adds blinkers today for the Martin barn. De La Cruz is aboard who has not been riding well, but a logical improvement for this horse from the last start could put her in the mix.
8 MILLIE’S AN ANGEL- Also on the 3rd career start and looked to understand things better in the 2nd outing. Stays in the same class level, but at a 9/5 ML I just cannot buy in here. Not for Al Cates with Kelsi Harr aboard. No offense to either, but both have had tough meets, and this filly does not scream bet me. Does get a weight allowance here, so could benefit.
Race 3
3 FIFTHATNARRAGANSET- What a name, and I hope Vic has to say it a lot today. Comes down in class ever so slightly but fits on pace figures for this race I believe. Ingrid Mason is having a respectable meet and Thompson is riding at a clip higher than in 2019. Could be a good combination here. After the efforts this winter, class spot here makes a lot of sense- 3rd from the layoff, get the horse into the winner’s circle and some confidence.
8 PUNISH- This Ron Moqueet filly looks to be a solid 4-year-old despite the win loss record. This spot makes a lot of sense, and if she can get out of the gate nice and quick should figure to be involved today. Cannon with a good ride could win, although I would prefer to see a higher percentage jock here. Could end up being a bit too short for a win bet.
7 MANDY- Horse has been all over looking for wins, in mixed company spots, but Peter Miller gets horses to respond, and looking at the running lines here, with some good workouts, I wonder what happened last out to finish 30 lengths back. Was that a paid workout to see how the horse was feeling? Doesn’t make that much sense to me to finish so poorly and then come back 6 days later.
5 TRUE CASTLE- Huge drop-in class, and it concerns me ever so slightly. Tried good allowance company this year and then a great morning workout. Carries 5 extra lbs, which is also a negative here. At the 2-1 ML I cannot recommend, and if this horse beats me, I am ok with it.
Race 4
11 EMPTY NESTR- Tries to break maiden in 6th start and could look good here today. Nice step forward last outing despite tiring. With no posted workouts since Feb 19th, conditioning could have been an issue. I expect similar effort from last out, if not slightly better and could bring us 3-1 or so.
1 GUMWRAPPER- Liked this horse two weeks ago and returns here. Faltered last out after a fast-early pace and couldn’t finish strong. Slight weight allowance here, big class relief, if Talamo can control or get an easy lead, maybe horse can finish at a decent price.
13 MAYAN GHOST- As an AE may not run, but looking through the lines here, if the track is fast, this horse could be interesting. Should be right behind the leaders and if they manage to outrun themselves and fall apart as we have seen, could be a benefactor at a good price.
Race 5
8 DOC CURLIN- Ships in from Turf Paradise and clearly is in form. No works reported, but there haven’t been any since October when the running lines came back. Diodoro- we know how he operates, and this horse will be ready. Huge price on this horse for this level, connections expect wins.
7 POCKET PERSONALITY- Interesting gelding here coming from the layoff, and I am not quite sure how I feel about him. Fits on speed figures alone if that is what you want to go by, but I am a little afraid that they find traffic trouble or start to make a run and tire at a short price after minimal workouts.
11 VIRGA- A lot of history for this horse, even in December of 19, running well at Woodbine. Has not matched those efforts since coming to Oaklawn, and John Cox winning 1/15 does not help build confidence either. At a 15-1 ML though, I am willing to make a 3rd choice in this field, on the off chance, the horse gets out front, gets bold and Rocco Jr, doesn’t look back.
Race 6
3 BLINKERS- Appropriately named horse faced winners for the first time at Churchill last fall and finished a good 3rd to a pretty good field that produced 5 out of 7 winners in the money next out. John Ortiz has been decent this meet, but not fire from the layoff which should lead to some value for us here. Workouts have been regular minus a week or two there. Should be out front and clear of any traffic trouble for Hill to navigate.
9 MOORAC- This filly has been against the pace in last 2 starts facing soft times which does not help a horse from off the pace. BLINKERS AND CHERISHED will keep the pace honest here and should give Martin Garcia something to run at today. Probably 2nd from the layoff for this horse, but at 15-1, why not. I should note I think the drop-in class is interesting, and either the connections are hoping to lose her, or they need a payday. Let’s hope it’s the latter and we can get paid!
2 CHERISHED- Asmussen filly here with a big price tag on her has yet to really produce what connections would like I’m guessing. Looked good in allowance company at Houston and should be running along side BLINKERS early on. If these two can withstand a pace duel and tire each other out, should be there at the finish.
Race 7
This race feels like it could be wide open for the company here, keep that in mind as tote action will tell a huge story for this large field of maidens.
10 HUNGRY N SCRAPPY- Nice effort over a muddy surface in debut at the next level up from here. Horse doesn’t have a great mud pedigree so no worries on my end for that today. Should be a fast track, which could suit her well. Brad Cox adds blinkers for this 2nd outing and if can run a touch better than debut, could be breaking maiden today.
1 LADY MCKENZIE- Perhaps this filly figured out how to run over the winter, with a good showing earlier this month for William Fires. Her best speed figure in that performance, but clearly, she was comfortable doing it, as she was near her best from 2019. Fires is not hitting well this meet with only 1 win, so I am hesitant to take this filly on the rail for an ice-cold trainer. If the odds float up perhaps its something to look at.
6 BIG LUCK- So every card there is a price horse I like that I do not make my top big. Here is the one for this week. Unraced as a 2-year-old, has been steadily improving in both of her starts so far. It is not out of the question that this filly can take another advancement to win. Both starts thus far have been slow early, which today should figure to be quicker. If this race is indeed quicker, she could come running late at a price. I will probably include underneath in exotics.
Race 8
5 SUNNY DALE- Hollendorfer entry looked good in the fall/winter and won 2 races at Oaklawn, both good company outings. Martin Garcia has been hitting a great clip to start and no reason to think this filly won’t be game today. It’s possible she gets loose and WHOLEHEARTED runs out of ground trying to catch. If the price is right, could be worth a shot, especially if you look at the workout from 4 days ago that was a great little breeze over a muddy surface.
9 WHOLEHEARTED- This horse will be short price, but considering how she ran in February, in what has proven to be a tough field, that has produced 4 out of 5 next out in the money finishes with 2 winners, tells a good story. Diodoro entry with Cohen has been a good combination, and if she takes a similar effort as last out, could win by lengths.
8 A.P. PRINCESS- Something changed with this filly in February as ran career best speed figures by a huge margin. Not sure what Cipriano Contreras found here or were the figures from TURFWAY park inflated that much? She has won on dirt before so will be curious to watch this one today. I don’t plan on betting it, just because there are more questions than answers surrounding her, but worth a quick paragraph to spur discussions.
Race 9
A lot of good priced first-time starters here to weed through, and I am going to try and find one that is worth a shot for the price. I expect the 2 DIGITAL STAR to be very short, so let’s have some fun in this finale!
11 BUBBA CABALLO- I just like this name and can’t wait for the call from Vic. Twirling Candy sires about 17% debut winners and was well placed in stakes company. Workouts are not crazy fast, but no surprise for Moquett there. Joe Talamo aboard knows how to ride a debut horse, so worth a shot at this price. Do yourself a favor, watch the paddock and pre-race video, see how this gelding is acting, kidney sweat, head throws take note, and let the tote dictate your risk here.
5 TAPSOLUTION-Hey look a City Zip foal making a debut. Workouts are nice for an Asmussen horse, and City Zip puts out debut winners at 14%. 9-2 ML I wish was a little higher, but with Baze aboard, maybe it sticks around that point. Again, DIGITAL STAR should take huge money leaving some value for us on these debut types today.
1 HANEY BOYS- Is part of the entry with SOUTHSIDE SWIG. I will talk about both briefly since they are coupled. First SOUTHSIDE SWIG needs to take a huge step forward from that debut effort to win today I think, and with a low percentage trainer, I would need a lot more than 5-1 if this was not coupled. HANEY BOYS is a product from a low percentage trainer as well but looked decent in previous 2 outings. Depending how these first timers run, should be the leader at the ½. I think conditioning was an issue for this colt in the race earlier this month and may need another to have stamina ready to go the full 6 Furlongs.