Hello, My name is Andrew Rdesinski, and my twitter handle is @phillyboy415. I am honored to be apart of the Colonial Downs group of analysts making our selections throughout the meet. I will be handicapping the Thursday cards, each week. Let’s print money!
Last Week was a lot better than opening week, but I didn’t have the best percentage of top pick winners. Yet I did have my best bet and first best bet of the meet, win at 2/1(Zip Drive in the 7th)
My top picks for the first two weeks went – 16 Top picks – 2-3-3-1
Win ROI ($2 base) – Wagered – $32 Return- $16
Top picks so far have me at -$16 on $2 Win wagers
Let’s bounce back today!
RACE 1- 1M 1/16th Turf – Maiden $10k
TOP PICK- #6 Barrel of Stout- Trevor McCarthy/Kevin Boniface
- The Main pacesetter is this field is to the inside of him but that horse is a jumper that is moving to a much shorter distance and flat races, which I usually stay away from. However, that early speed can help set up a dead pace down the stretch and allow this gelding to run them down. Trevor rode this horse two back and ran 2nd with his 2nd highest beyer of 47 at Maiden 16K. I think he can be more forwardly placed today and Trevor can pounce on the leaders.
UNDERNEATH- #1 Optical Illusion- Forest Boyce/Alexandra White
- This horse was flying late in his last start at Colonial Downs last week. The turn right back 6 days later is usually an iffy sign for me, but the way the horse ran and now another shot over the same course in a weak field is actually a green flag rather than a red flag this time.
I also like the 7 and 11 in this race as key horses underneath (6-1-7-11)
RACE 2- 5 ½ F Dirt Maiden 20K
TOP PICK- #10 Emo – Mychel Sanchez/ Michael Pino
- Connections from Parx yet a horse that has only run at Delaware usually means either the 5F sprints or 5 ½ F sprints didn’t fill at Parx or they wanted to face weaker at DEL. However this filly, has still yet to get the job done. I like the early speed from her and the addition of blinkers. Pino knows where to put his horses and I like this spot.
UNDERNEATH- #5 Queen Bess- Dean Sarvis/Dane Koblskie
- These exact same connections won by 11 lengths last week with a first timer, and could do the same today. I’m not a big fan of Dean Sarvis mainly because I’m not that familiar with him as a rider, but he has been riding impressively this meet so I can’t leave him out. Must use.
- #4 Verrabella- Sheldon Russell/ Susan Cooney
- Another first timer in this field is even more interesting to me. This Filly, has a workout over the dirt course in which she worked pretty solid. Sneaky breeding and a jockey that is a groomed vet. Could be a price or could be a favorite, watch the tote board for more information.
- #6 Quality H Two O- Victor Carrasco/ Teresa Connelly
- Has yet to run a solid race. Yet, 2nd off the layoff, returning to dirt, and truly dropping into the right spot in my opinion. Could go to the lead I just don’t really know. WILDCARD
RACE 3- 1m 1/16TH Turf OC62K
TOP PICK- #3 Frippery- Daniel Centeno/Arnauld Delacour(BEST BET)
- This is my best bet of the day. Hopefully she can sit a nice trip and be 2nd or 3rd all the way around until the stretch. If Centeno puts her in the right spot, I think she runs right by and wins in hand. The distance might be a problem, but I think if timed right, no one will catch her.
UNDERNEATH- #7 Madame X.- Forest Boyce/Susan Connelly
- This filly ran 3 straight solid efforts coming into this race. She could of won all 3 in my opinion but has had to settle for one win and two in the money finishes. She is in top form right now and 8/1 ML for me looks like a gift that we most likely won’t see. IF she is above 5/1 bet her, if not use her in horizontals.
I also like #1 and #2 as underneath horses- (3-7-2-1)
RACE 4- 1MILE TURF MAIDEN 20K
TOP PICK- #7 War of the North- Feargal Lynch/ Brendan Walsh
- My longshot of the day. This 2yo GELDING, let me emphasis that because its race you see a horse gelded so early. He is getting blinkers and is dropping into an easy field. I expect a much better effort today and most likely an even more focused effort. Might not win but I like the odds and changes to the horse.
UNDERNEATH- #6 Just Chill Out- Daniel Centeno/Ferris Allen III
- Debuted 2 Fridays ago at Colonial and ran an average 5th. However, with that experience over this course, and a change of jockey which is interesting, I can see him having an advantage on the field.
- I like the #3 and #4 as underneath plays but I do like all 4 horses for horizontals. (7-6-3-4)
RACE 5- 7 Furlongs Dirt- OC25K
TOP PICK- #6 He’s No Bull- CC Lopez/Thomas Vance
- CC should be on the controlling speed here in this dirt sprint. We all know Opening day at Colonial the early speed did not hold up whatsoever which led to this horse to fold up and run 4th. He drops in class today and cuts back with a sneaky aggressive rider on speed horses. I expect nothing but a top 2 finish from this horse today.
UNDERNEATH- #4 Carte Blanche- Miguel Mena/Wesley Hawley
- Mena ships in to ride this one, which is intriguing. However, this horse seems to struggle when it comes to getting the job done down the lane. He is always right there but can not get by. Seems like a hanger, so I will use underneath.
- #3 Irish Colonel – Trevor McCarthy/Jamie Ness
- I know this horse pretty well, since he runs at parx often. His DEL race last time out can win in this field especially if the speed doesn’t hold again. If he is in the right position he can strike and win at the last jump.
RACE 6- 5 ½ F Turf Claiming $10K
TOP PICK- #11 Thump – Trevor McCarthy/Eli Betancourt JR.
- This is the 1st time, an above average rider has ridden her in a while if not ever. This horse is a cheap dirt horse from parx that just recently turned to turf. Has ran 3 solid races over the turf at MTH and DEL, but ships in here and gets a stronger rider. I like the post and I like the jockey change.
UNDERNEATH- #5 Lady Greatness- Victor Carrasco/Gerald Brooks
- Another horse for Woodland Farms at Colonial, which is usually a horse I would take a second look at. Shipping in from Gulfstream is usually a good sign, especially since it’s not huge connections. I was playing an NHC tournament at the Meadowlands when Woodland claimed this horse back in April. She has yet to win since then but I think this is a legitimate spot for her.
I also like the #9 and #10 underneath. Both have 1 start over the turf so I couldn’t really use them on top, but if you want to spread the connections from parx on both are sneaky and could make for an upset.
RACE 7- 1Mile turf Claiming $25,000N2L
TOP PICK- #7 Noble Lion- Feargal Lynch/ George Weaver
- This gelding just broke his maiden at MTH for $30K. A little cut back in distance and an even better turf jockey are two plusses for me. I think he is turning into form at the right time and could win easy here.
UNDERNEATH- #5 Hillsdown- Mychel Sanchez/ Michael Pino
- I used this horse underneath last week, but he scratched. I like him for all the same reasons, I think today might be easier than last week and that is why the connections pointed here instead.
- #3 Wetumka- Dean Sarvis/Dane Koblskie
- Should be a pacesetter and is cutting back in distance by a lot. Could get loose on the lead and go gate to wire.
RACE 8- 1Mile Turf- MSW
TOP PICK- #6 Secure Connection- Boyce/McGaughey III
- Just missed last time out at Laurel, and stretches out today. I think the added distance will only help this horse win. 2yos usually don’t go this long yet, but this horse looks ready.
UNDERNEATH- #8 Three Sided Story- Lynch/Proctor
- She ran 5th to the #6 horse last time out and now comes back for her second start in which she is also stretching out. She is bred for the distance I just don’t know if this early on in her career she can go the distance.
- #7 Princess Cadey – Toledo/Potts
- Has ran at the distance, and is also running 2nd time on turf at this distance. Ran 2nd in two turn turf debut and running 2nd on the dirt. I think she prefers turf, and the experience at the distance should be beneficial.
RACE 9- 5 ½ Maiden 16K Turf
TOP PICK- #7 Uncommon Factor- CC Lopez/ Lilli Kurtinecz
- I always include CC Lopez in the finale, because he brings his horses home strong. Not just that the finale is usually won by a price. This horse has both. Should be on the lead or close to it. If this filly does stay close to the lead she can pounce and possibly win. Good chance in my eyes.
UNDERNEATH- #9 Data Princess- McCarthy/Allen III
- A Candian shipper, that hasn’t run since November of 2018. I don’t know what happened to this filly, but the barn change from Casse to Allen III, and the layoff are all question marks for me, but I think this field is weak enough where she can benefit.