Gulfstream Park 5.23.20
By Michael Jordan, @mhjpicks
Thanks for checking out today’s analysis. As with all of my picks/analysis, I give who I think the most likely winners are for each race based off of relevant statistics and angles. I like beating favorites and finding longshots as much as the next horseplayer, but keep in mind my selections are based off of most likely winners, not necessarily odds/value. Aside from this weekly article I offer daily free full card picks for Gulfstream Park as well as spot plays from other tracks. Be sure to give me a Twitter follow on @mhjpicks. Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card offers a 11 puzzles to solve. Let’s get some winners!
Race 1
Looking to start things off with a bang in this 25K Maiden Claimer going 1 1/16 on the turf with the underachieving #1 Oxburger who is 12-1 on the ML. This horse did his best running during his three year old season on the turf and gets back to the grass today. Oxburger is a son of Tapit who went for 900k but finds himself in a 25k claimer, but hoping that a return to the turf and some seasoning (which generally helps Tapit colts) will do the trick today. #5 Limetini had a solid effort at this level last out and adds blinkers which could help him stay focused on the pace. A solid third contender is #2 Cardiac Kid who has the pedigree to win at this level and has two close calls. This might be one to go four deep in as there is potential for some breakdown for a closer. If that’s the case #9 Officer Country could be the one to make a late run while trying a route for the first time.
1-5-2-9
Race 2
The horses running in this one fit the bill for a 10k claimer going a mile on the dirt. Some of these are poised to improve in new barns, to include my top choice #10 Voicesinthedarknez (6/1). He couldn’t last but had a game effort setting the pace last out. Lynch is 23% with MCL and against this weak field, could see a boost in that stat. #6 Consilium didn’t run too far back, but has been a consistent one who should have better conditions today to make a run at it. #2 Macho d’Oro is second off for a relatively unknown trainer, Cadahia, who is 18% so far this meet and got this one to improve last out. A repeat of that effort would likely be a winning one today.
10-6-2
Race 3
In this 25k claimer going 6F on the dirt we have a beatable 7/5 ML favorite, but the odds on my top choice will not be much better. #6 Let’s Be Honest (9/5) performs better in sprints and should have the lasting power over the other speed horses in this one. #4 Smitten for Smitty runs for Luis Ramirez who is 3/7 this meet. This filly could run back to her maiden effort after taking on winners for the first time last out. #5Well Brush Mytooth can’t be ignored on the big class drop, however the last work wasn’t what I would have liked to see for a horse coming off the layoff.
6-4-5
Race 4
This 10k MCL going 1 mile on the dirt looks like it will go through #10 Witch Hunter (6/5). Barboza is 55% off the claim and this one’s speed figures are significantly higher than the rest of the field. This one ran second at 1/5 last out and may have similar odds today. #1 Crystalina will try to steal this one on the front end but will need a lone speed set up, which is possible. Berrios is an aggressive jocket and this one has ran second twice with front running tactics. #3 Dakota Beach has shown the fastest speeds other than the #10, and should be a nice price to play in exotics.
10-1-3
Race 5
Another likely chalky winner in the fifth with #8 Projected (9/5). He is swimming in a shallower pool than ever at the 12.5 claiming level (perhaps to meet a condition for a future race or perhaps just to keep cashing checks). In either case, coming off a solid win in Tampa he should be able to handle this field today. #7 Mr. Discretionary is coming off a layoff for Cibelli who is 25% with runners between 60-180 days. Cibelli also has #9 The Mighty Judge coming off a win at this level last out. This son of Curlin could sit right with Projected and give him a run down the stretch.
8-7-9
Race 6
Some nice maidens in this MSW 45k 6.5f sprint. It looks to me like Pletcher has a couple of potential monsters entered here. #8 Ima Pharaoh (9/5) has two second place efforts losing the lead in both of those. Think the third time will be the charm today as this son of American Pharaoh comes off of four bullet works in a row. The main competition should be the “other Pletcher”, the 900k purchase #3 Curlingo (8/1) also from the Pletcher barn with some bullets of his own. Pletcher is 21% with first time starters. #6 Getthe Muny Bernie is second out for Saffie Joseph who is 23% with maidens in their second start. Might not quite be fast enough but set to improve in second lifetime start.
8-3-6
Race 7
This is yet another race where we should be looking at a low price winner. Keep in mind while I like to beat favorites as much as the next person, my goal in these analysis articles is to give the rationale for the horses I think are the most likely winners and this sequence of the last five races looks pretty formful and logical. This 5f turf dash is full of speed (wish there was a good late runner in here) and has three strong candidates to get the win. #7 Miami Crockett (9/5) has been getting better every race with an affinity for the GP turf at 5 furlongs with 3 wins in 3 races at the surface/distance. Klesaris is strong in the relevant angles and has found the right regimen for this horse. #6 Remaster has been the favorite in his only three races for which he has won one and finished second twice-including last out to the #7. First off the claim for Dibona (21%) adds blinkers and hopes to avoid getting bumped again this time out. #3 Jades Gelly is a talented filly taking on the boys here for Wesley Ward. She is coming off a layoff since January (21% angle for Ward) and certainly has the talent to be competitive here.
7-6-3
Race 8
This 12.5k claimer going 1 1/16 on the turf for non-winners of 3 is pretty wide open. #7 Devoted Kitten (9/2) drops to lowest level of career and removes blinkers. I think he has the late speed needed to get up over the field in this one today, though may benefit from being a little closer to the pace today. #6 Mystical Moon is first off the claim for Barboza (remember that 55% angle from before) and has 1 win and 3 seconds in his last four races. He should be involved early and has the kick to hang on. #10 Sir Seamus will almost certainly be on the early lead from the 10 post. He is a beaten favorite in four of his last five races but could pop one here if he isn’t pushed on the front end.
7-6-10
Race 9
The youngest horse in this claiming race going 7 furlongs on the dirt is 5 years old, but draws some intrigue with my top choice #1 Malibu Max (5/2). This is a former Navarro trained horse running for Pletcher and judging by yesterday’s performances of the horses moved over he will be ready to go. He hasn’t had his picture taken in awhile, but today should be time for his 7th career victory. #7 Front Loaded has some back class and will be competitive here. I don’t like the quick turnaround on this 6 year old gelding, but was very game in last effort and could produce another one. #5 My Friend Flavin may not be fast enough anymore but in this small field could be a factor should the others falter.
1-7-5
Race 10
The tenth features the local favorite and 5f turf specialist #9 Pay Any Price (5/2). He had a couple of tough outings and got a breather (31% angle for Baxter). Pay Any Price has won 16 of 26 starts at this surface/distance and gets some class relief here which should be enough to get the job done. The toughest competition should come from #3 Mai Ty One On who almost beat #9 in January in similar conditions. There is so much speed here he could be sitting just off waiting to pounce. #5 Coop Tries Harder is the speed option for Cibelli who also trains #3. Coop will definitely try hard on the front end to either put away #9 or take enough out for his stablemate.
9-3-5
Race 11
Today’s finale is a competitive AOC going 1 mile on the turf with a nice full field. #11 Lookinlikeaqueen (12/1) is poised for a late effort should the expected pace theory be accurate here. Spatz is having a nice meet (20%) so this one should be ready to go with Vasquez in the reins. #9 Yolanda’s Pride has fished first or second in 6 career turf mile races and is hard to ignore. #3 Ghostly Beauty hasn’t won at the mile, but hasn’t run poorly at a mile either. Maker has improved this horse and will be ready to fire today.
11-9-3