Monmouth Park Racing Analysis — Saturday, May 11, 2019, by Jeff Byrnes

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Race 1: WAIVER CLAIMING $5,000  1 1/16 (Dirt) Picks: 1-3-7
Perimeter (#1): Drops from $10,000 to $5,000 level and has run well at this distance in the past. Trainer is 22% shipping and 32% in claimers. Could be on the lead from the inside and speed is good at Monmouth.
Domain (#3): Ships in from New York and drops two classes today. Has two runner up finishes i only two tries at this distance. Return to two turns will help him. Likely to sit closer to pace and good figures coming in. 
McMullen County (#7): Makes 2019 debut today and should relish the distance. Four wins at distance and a couple wins at this claiming level. Will be closing late but needs a fast pace. Longshot worth playing. 


Race 2: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT  $56,250 Six Furlongs Picks: 4-5-2
Irish Meadow (#4): Second in only start at Monmouth Park, also has a good speed rating and closing kick. Faces small field and should improve off the layoff. Highest prime power number in the field. 
Jersey Fresh (#5): Makes 2019 debut today. Trainer is 11% with horse off 90 days or more. Cuts back to six furlongs where he has two 3rd place finishes and fits his running style. 
Biletnikoff (#2): Makes 2019 debut today with a cut back to six furlongs. Training well coming in, he will be mid pack and come with a late run. 


Race 3: CLAIMING $12,500 – $10,500 One Mile (Turf)  Picks: 2-5-7
Glory to Kitten (#2): Former stakes runner makes 2019 debut with a new trainer. Trainer is 18% in races with a new horse in barn. Won at Saratoga two back in $25,000 level. Has three wins at the distance. Must use. 
Miss Aja Brown (#5): Drops to lowest level claimer of her career. Trainer is 22% in claimers and 19% shipping. Shipping in from New York, this mare faces slightly less competition. 
Digital Diva (#7): Drops back to $12,500 level and from the seven  post she will have room to run. She has two wins in 2018 at this level and has consistent numbers. Good fit. 


Race 4: WAIVER CLAIMING $7,500 – $6,500 Six Furlongs Picks: 3-4-6
Women Flyer (#3): Drops from $16,000 to $7,500 and has a win at this distance over this course. Gets blinkers on for the first time, where the trainer is 40%. The cut back to six furlongs will be helpful to her. Must use. 
Carly Angel (#4): Makes 2019 debut today and cuts back to six furlongs. She has closing speed and will need a good pace upfront. Drops to lowest level claimer of her career. 
Love that Chick (#6): Ships in from Parx where she was very consistent at the track at this level. Trainer is 15% shipping and 13% in routes to sprint. Has a win at this level back in November 2018. 


Race 5: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT   $42,500 1 1/16 (Turf) Picks: 8-9-3
Solent (#8): Trainer Chad Brown has this Juddmonte mare ready for her turf debut, where he is 27% first time on grass and 24% in turf to dirt races. Highest prime power number in the field. Good jockey/trainer combination. Must use. 
Premium Motion (#9) Will get a good route of ground and should enjoy the added distance. Will get a good pace to close into. Trainer is 23% in sprint to routes. Prime power of 119 is among biggest in the field. 


Race 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000  1 1/16 (Dirt) Picks: 5-6-3
Point to Remember (#5): Never worse that 4th in her career. She has five straight top two finishes. Makes 2019 debut today, but she gets better with every start and last time won with a 102 beyer speed figure. Trainer is 27% shipping and 19% 90 days away. She’s prepping for bigger and better. 
Race Me Home (#6): First time with Jorge Navarro, where he is 24% with horses first after the claim. He is also 26% with horses two months away. She has closing speed but could change tactics first time out. Good speed figures and must use. 
Golden Brown (#3): New Jersey bred and former grade three winner makes 2019 debut today. Gets red hot Jomar Torres in the saddle. Has the class to face these, but layoff worries me. Class could help him here. 


Race 7:  WAIVER CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000 1 1/16 (Turf) Picks: 8-1-6
Rhythm Park (#8): Makes 2019 debut today, where the trainer is 37% with a long time away. Has won going this distance before. Switches to turf where he has a win and a 3rd. Trainer is 20% with dirt to turf runners. Good win percentage and very consistent throughout career. Must use. 
Double Deep (#1): Ships in from New York and has a win at the $40,000 level earlier this year. Likely will be on the lead and without speed can take them a long way. Three placing in five starts on the grass. 
Not So Quiet Man (#6): Last start at Monmouth Park, he won at this level. Will be close to the pace ad the drop in class will help. 90 days off will help him as well.


Race 8:  MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000 – $20,000 Six Furlongs Picks: 6-3-2
Do What it Takes (#6): First start in two months and with new trainer, who is 33% with first time runners. Has a 2nd and 3rd in three starts at the distance. Good numbers and should like the track. 
True Prosperity (#3): First start since January and drops big in class. Trainer is 23% in maiden claimers. Gets Jomar Torres aboard. Distance will fit perfectly and the field is not as tough as debut.
Ms. Genuine (#2): Drops to $25,000 and cuts to six furlongs. Blinkers on for the first time. Will get speed to chase. 

Race 9: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT  $42,500    1 1/16 (Turf) Picks: 2-6-7
Whatdoesasharksay (#2): James Toner ships this one to Monmouth and faces slightly less competition today. Good workouts coming in and a good post. Trainer is 18% shipping and second start should be better. 
Unabridged (#6): Makes second start in America and seeks to improve off last start. Training well coming in and the tight turns should benefit him. Trainer is 10% with second start horses. 
Black Dynamite (#7): Mike Stidham ships in as this filly makes her first start in eight months. Trainer is 17% when more than 90 days away. 21% in 2nd career race. She will need pace to chase and will be coming late.


Race 10: Serena’s Song Stakes $75,000 One mile and 70 Yards Picks: 6-5-2
Forever Liesl (#6): In the top three in last three starts, including a win in the Ladies Handicap at Aqueduct. Was second in the Top Flight last time out. Stakes proven, and has a win at Monmouth Park. Good works coming in, class of the field. 
Breaking Bread (#5): Winner of three of her last four, this mare is on a  roll. Navarro is 32% shipping and 30% in non graded stakes races. She has speed in a field lacking it. Very consistent throughout career. Must use. 
Goodonehoney (#2): Gets a fast track today and third off the layoff should help. Will be among the pacesetters. Live longshot.  


Race 11: ALLOWANCE $45,000 1 1/16 (Turf) Picks: 6-10-3
Bantu (#6): Second and third in three starts this year and gets class relief today. Trainer is 26% with horses second after the claim. Field not as competitive as what he faced in the past. Good workouts coming in and good trip.
Themanbehindtheman (#10):  Winner of two of his last three and has a good record at this distance. Won last start on the lead. Prime Power among biggest in the field. Good chance from the outside. 


Race 12: CLAIMING $5,000 Six Furlongs Picks: 1-7-6
Eddie Boy (#1): Drops far below in class and gets the inside post to use his speed. Only win was a near wire to wire win last year. Trainer is 16% shipping and has good workout coming in. Can save ground and can handle this field. 
Clever Caliban (#7): Rough streak but returns to favorite track. All three wins have come at Monmouth Park, two of them came at this distance. Returns to $5,000 level and has outside post. Will get sped to chase. 
Johnny U (#6): Four wins all time at Monmouth Park and has three wins at this distance. Prime power of 117 is the highest of the field. Trainer is 25% with horses second start after the claim. Will be close to the pace and get first run. Will be coming late.

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