Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski returning here for another Stronach Pick 5!! For the weeks I have done this we are 1:8 and up +$344 I got blown up last week in what should have been a hit. Of the times we have missed we have gone 4:5 5 times. Tells me we are in the right zone, just missing a little bit. Still profitable and the nice thing about this bet, and playing like we do for this column, just need a hit every once in awhile to stay afloat.
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer- I’d love to hear feedback or comments on your thoughts on the races!
Laurel R7 4:22 PM EDT Allowance Optional Claiming $35k 7F on Dirt
2 WARM- Nice effort last out and now comes back at a little bit more distance. Hit the gate that trip, so can excuse the slow start, Conner stays aboard, and he is winning at 12% for the yar. Horse is always close to the money or in it, cashing 9 out of 15 career attempts. Must use here.
5 REFLECT- Looked good last month at 6F, now here at 7F, should be sitting behind the 7 with a good trip for Toledo. O’Dwyer winning at 35% and this horse worked out well last 2 times, probably loaded for today and at 7-2 ML could give us a decent price.
4 IT’S A JOURNEY- Benefitted from a fast pace last out to win, but horse has won before at a normal pace when he wants to run. I am debating not going this deep in leg 1 but will have to see how the sequence caps out to determine my coverage here. I would feel comfortable with just the 2 and 5 but this horse leaves me wondering a little bit. If things work out and McCarthy sits a stalking trip at a moderate pace, no reason can’t win.
Laurel R8 4:54PM EDT Maiden $25k 6F on Dirt
Ok we going to have 2 at Laurel again- no problem as I think I am starting to understand this track a little bit better. Unfortunately for me- lots of question marks in this field.
6 PALACE CANDY- should be the leader early and could even steal the race, much like he almost did last out. Hit a wall in the stretch and was just beat. Third start coming here and should be in better condition to finish a race. Cintron should be able to keep a firm grasp early so that PALACE CANDY can finish at a decent price.
5 SKYJACKED- First time starter for Robert Bailes, but hes hitting at 25% in this spot, and has a $4.09 ROI in maiden company debut spots. Couple that with some workouts that look pretty good, and a 10-1 ML I will include and look for a price in this leg.
1 METAL MAGICIAN- John Robb has been huge off the claim at short prices but they claim and keep in same company, with just a jockey change. Tries to break maiden in 3rd career start and I think the workouts since that start in January improved, even if the timing makes no sense. I have discounted the rail the last 2 weeks, and this horse could go, so I want to be covered to him.
Gulfstream Park R9 5:12 PM EDT Optional Claiming $16k 8F on Turf
1 LOOKINLIKEAQUEEN- Saez should have a great trip here, and only contend with minimal traffic late. I would expect a pocket trip and exploding in the lane as the horse has shown some late pace ability. Got pinched inside last time, if we can avoid that, should be able to best this field.
6 GHOSTLY BEAUTY- Who wants to fade Irad at Gulfstream? Not me! This is another Maker horse as is LOOKINLIKEAQUEEN, so we are covered nicely to the trainer hitting at 22% so far this year. Nice race last out with Irad aboard, and field looks similar so no reason to expect a step backwards.
2 CANDY MONEY- This is probably too deep for this spot especially to a horse that broke maiden last out, but after that win, they come from Tampa to Gulfstream in a logical position. Upgrades the jockey here and perhaps the connections expect some big things from this 4-year-old from Candy Ride.
Golden Gate R3 5:23PM EDT Maiden $12.5k 5.5F on Synthetic
7 OASIS- Big drop-in class here for the horse that couldn’t win at 2 much higher special weight spots. This relief should do him well, Gomez should be able to control him better as he did in debut and get a stronger finish than last out.
3 SPEEDY TRIP- Pedigree is healthy for this first-time starter and should show us that he can run. Yakteen is pretty good with in this spot with first timers so expect the horse to be live. With this being an hour after the sequence starts, we won’t have the benefit of watching the tote to see if he is live, but I expect him to take more money that the 5-1 ML would indicate.
Gulfstream Park R10 5:43 PM EDT Optional Claiming $25k 8F on Turf
10 LA RUSIA- Zayas aboard again as they look for win #2 for this meet. Stays at the mile after 2 places and expect more of the same. There are a few horses here that can catch in the stretch, but if Zayas can get a nice lead setting the pace, maybe has enough today to finish it.
3 JOYOUS TIMES- Horse is 2 for 2 with nice efforts in both and probably a pretty good upgrade at jockey here for this Serpe entry. If can win with Panici and Prado, Irad can get it done as well. Horse doesn’t like to lead on turf, so it is a perfect fit for the Eclipse Winning Jock!
My Play
R1- 2,5,4
R2- 6,5,1
R3- 1,6,2
R4- 7,3
R5- 10,3
This feels like nice coverage for a $108 ticket this week. Race 9 at Gulfstream- should probably leave the 2 out to save $36 on the ticket but I would be pretty upset if going cheap and tossing out a horse that ran well who end up beating me and costs the sequence. Including for sanity at this point. As always check out the Twitter and if there are any late changes due to scratches etc, I will leave a comment!
Good luck everyone!