By: Michael Jordan Twitter: @mhjpicks
Race 1
#2 Coin the Phrase has improving races and will be second off (17%) for Toner looking for his first win of the meet. Lopez is riding as well as anyone right now so that will help. #6 Summer in the City is one of two first timers for Pletcher coming off a more recent bullet work ready to pop here. #1 Notorious RBG is a dangerous first timer for Clemente (25%). Will likely be in an early duel with the 2, but if she can clear she may be able to wire them.
2-6-1
Race 2
Small field of 5 runners for the second race AOC with none in for the tag. Some speedy talented ones here, they might all be struggling by the finish line with a hot pace expected. If the #5 R U Lucky builds off his last effort (Joseph-37% off wins) he could very well draw off from this field as well. #2 Inter Miami has been entered in some classy races but the drop in class today should help get back to that maiden form. #3 Absolute Grit is off the layoff (4%) for Plesa. Maybe needs a race however has been steady in the works in various conditions.
5-2-3
Race 3
#4 Blame the Gods has consistently solid speed figures and moves back down into no more appropriate level. Will likely be flanked by #8 Zodiac Princess (Casarez is 31% for meet) and #2 Karenina who are both solid runners at this level as well. There is a chance that the pace favors the #2, however I think #4 will have more in the tank for the stretch battle.
4-8-2
Race 4
#5 Shazzy B has two solid second place efforts and has shown the best speed of the others (#7 put up a solid figure in debut). Should be able to control the pace and be placed in the right spot to bring it home. #2 Sweden gets to run after several scratches, with the underrated Ollsson who just missed with her last out. Alvarado is (17%) off the layoff. #3 Run Devil is off the shelf for Joseph and gets Lasix added. Jaramillo is a good aggressive rider who will put this one in the mix, but fitness is a concern off the layoff.
5-2-3
Race 5
#3 Proven Strategies was a big disappointment last out for bettors, however is set to improve second off for Casse (20%) and speed wise seems to only have one real competitor, #7 Shamrocket, off the layoff for Clemente (18%). These two will likely duel most of the way, with #2 Magic Street likely in the mix (but I think wil fold)and #8 Souper Watson looking to pick up the pieces if there is a collapse of any kind.
3-7-8
Race 6
There is something to like and dislike a lot all the entries in this one. I’m predicting some pace with a couple used to running shorter and one moving to turf that is also a speed type. Think that sets things up for #5 Vegas Kitten and #8 Bye Bye Man to run late. #5 is first off the claim for Casse who has decent stats in this area and also has a win at the distance. Bye Bye Man May run closer to the pace as opposed to a deep close as he did In his maiden win. #7 Wise to Listen is another late runner who should be pushing late but last race didn’t fire. Pretty open one here.
5-8-7
Race 7
My top three contenders here all sound like they could be named after blockbuster movies. #5 Sultry Samurai is taking a small drop for Navarro who is 28% in sprints. Looking for a similar effort to the maiden win here for this one in which he stayed close and ran well late. #8 London Werewolf is one of the few who look fast enough to compete well with the #5. Morrison has no wins on the meet and is 4% on the year however so that is always a tough thing to put money on. #12 Donegal Aces will be the pace and looking to hold on, however will need to bump the speed up to get the win.
5-8-12
Race 8
#4 La Cara Bonita is second off for Liza (20%) and exits a tough stakes race so relied should help her. #5 Swirling Candy looks to build off her maiden score in front running style. I always worry about a bounce with cases like this off such a big speed jump. #3 Drop a Hint is off such a bounce in her last, I think she will run evenly and be placed well. Fuentes doesn’t have a win yet but I must say he has purchased some nice animals and his time for a W is coming soon.
4-5-3
Race 9
Interesting and competitive field of 8 goes here in the ninth. #2 Like You has never run a dirt route but is certainly bred for it. Will be on the shoulders of Gaffalione to bring out the potential in this one likely at a nice price. #6 Earthquake will need a bump on figures but had won two in a row and gets a guy name Velasquez back on who might be pretty good…Alvarado is 19% with last out winners. #3 Silverly Enough has been a sprinter and is now switching to a route for Hess (2 Sprints/Route 29%). He should be able to make the distance but it’s a question mark for me.
2-6-3
Race 10
Nice full field for the closing Maiden Claimer. Not a stellar group and most of these could improve enough to get the win. #12 Cat’s JNJ will have to hustle out to clear the group and likely going with will be #9 I’m Thirsty Too.#11 Silver Palms and #1 may join the fun up front. 11 should clear and sit off the pace and hope to have every for the stretch but if 12 and 9 are loose I see them holding. #6 Bee Wings, along with #2, #3 should have some late energy if the pace tires the leaders out.
12-9-6-11