Race 1
#9 Esposito
This 5 year old gelding has seen his fair share of trainers. He is making his first start for new trainer Kelly von Hemel. She will be his sixth different trainer of 2018. His last couple races leave a little to be desired, but he ran some really solid races this spring, including a couple here at Churchill. So I’m hoping getting back to a place he likes will help him return to that good form. He does have some early speed, so I’m hoping he can a get a good stalking trip from that outside post.
#1 Swamp Ruler
First off the claim here for trainer (and also owner) Wesley Hawley. He claimed him last month at Keeneland. He crushed a group of $7,500 claimers that day. This colt is quite consistent, running very similar speed figures every time he goes out there. Figures to come from behind in this race, so jockey Adam Beschizza will have to work out a trip from that inside post. The horse has hit the board twice in four lifetime tries at Churchill.
#2 I’m in a Hurry
This 8 year old is the real veteran of the group. 53 career races under his belt, with 18 wins and 10 seconds. His last ten races have been at Thistle Downs, in allowance races. He’s got early speed, and if he runs is best race, he’ll be tough in here. He has only run three times this year, and the first two were subpar. He ran well getting the win in his most recent start, but was that a fluke at this point, or is he getting back to his form from last year? That’s the question.
Race 2
#6 Champagne Tale
Second time starter here for trainer Dallas Stewart. She debuted back on closing weekend at Saratoga, and went off at odds of 6-1. That’s a pretty short price for a Stewart firster, so I’m thinking this is a pretty highly regarded homebred for Charles Fipke. She has a nice series of works here at Churchill coming into this race. She’s stretching out to a mile here, so I’m looking for a midpack trip and hopefully a strong finish down the lane. Brian Hernandez rides.
#8 Positive Spirit
This Pioneerof the Nile filly makes her 3rd career start. She’s run two pretty solid efforts. The first was in the same Saratoga race that I mentioned above, and her second start was at Keeneland. I think this one turn mile distance could be just what she likes. She was a good closing third on debut, and she made a nice middle move going a mile and a sixteenth last time and only got beat by a neck; she was also over four lengths clear of the third place finisher in that race. Rudy Brisset trains, Tyler Gafflione rides.
#1 Delcapem
Norm Casse sends out this second time starter by Uncle Mo. She ran an even fourth in her debut at Keeneland, but she did have a wide trip that day. Stretching out to the mile shouldn’t be an issue with Lemon Drop Kid on the bottom side of the pedigree. Drawing the rail isn’t ideal here, so a quick start would be beneficial. When Leparoux teams up with this barn they hit at 25%. 31% when it’s here at Churchill.
Race 3
#3 Lead Astray
Taking a pretty significant drop in class here from $30,000 N2L down this $16,000 condition. So hopefully that helps. I’m also hoping that getting back to a one turn race can be helpful. His last two races at a mile and a sixteenth seemed to be a little far. When playing these 7F races, a horse cutting back in distance is an angle that I like. Trainer Chris Hartman is about 20% going route to sprint. Robby Albarado is in the saddle.
#8 Fortythreeoeight N
Cool name. He is named after the latitude and longitude location of historic Saratoga Racecourse. I’m hoping that he gets a fast track for this race. His last two have been over sloppy conditions and he didn’t seem to care for them. His race back in July at Saratoga was a very good effort at a level much tougher than this one. The productive team of Norm Casse and Julien Leparoux team up here.
#9 Teletap
This 4 year old colt has just one win in 18 career starts. However, he definitely has an affinity for Churchill. He’s finished in the money in four of his six tries here, including his lone win back in June. He looks to be one of the main speed presences, and if he gets loose on the lead he could be tough to run down. Steve Asmussen trains. His main man Ricardo Santana rides.
Race 4
#5 Hay Dakota
He’s been freshened up since September by trainer Joel Berndt. He’s run a majority of his races at Canterbury, however, he has run once here at Churchill and that resulted in a win. He’s been having a pretty consistent year, finishing in the money in all five starts, but no wins. He definitely prefers to come from behind, although if the pace is slow, he has shown the ability to lay closer. Chris Landeros is the pilot today.
#4 Zambian
This 6 year old gelding is making his second start off a 10 month layoff. Last time he ran a solid third at Indiana, and he’s been facing higher level allowance foes for the past year, so this is a drop in class. He has also had success at Churchill with two wins and a second in five tries. Just like my top selection, this guy does his best running at the end. But could lay close if the pace isn’t very strong up front. Adam Beschizza rides.
#8 Cowboy Culture
This son of Quality Road is in for a tag for the first time in his career. Last year as a 3YO he raced strictly in stakes company, including a G3 win the Arlington Classic. Trainer Brad Cox is adding blinkers today, and he hits at a 20% clip when doing so. It’s kind of been all or nothing for this horse, he either wins, or finishes off the board. If he brings his A effort he could be tough. But that’s hard to assume based off his 3 poor efforts so far this year.
Race 5
#12 Harlan’s Dynamo
This gelding hasn’t raced since January at Turfway Park, so the layoff is a bit of a concern. However, with a small sample size, his trainer Helen Pitts is 2-5 with layoffs over 180 days. He also has never raced at a level this low, so hopefully this is a field that he can be competitive with. Draws outside, and prefers to come from behind. Given that Calvin Borel is in the saddle, I expect him to drop back, get over to the inside and try to make one run. It worked for a victory here about a year ago, I’m hoping they can do it again.
#5 Out of the Office
This guy is a little lite on numbers/speed figures, but I still give him a look in this spot. First and foremost, he’s hit the board in five of his six races here at Churchill. So he’s proven this is a surface he likes. Secondly, his last handful of fast main track efforts are all pretty decent. He’s been freshened up the past couple months and shows a few good works coming into this. Miguel Mena returned from injury recently and his aboard today.
#8 Because It’s Time
Pretty big drop in class for this guy. Raced in a $20,000 claimer at Keeneland last time. That wasn’t a great effort, but he hadn’t raced since the spring, and he drew the extreme outside post. If he runs back to the form he had last year in allowance company, he could crush this field. Last year in one of those races he finished just three lengths behind Met Mile winner Bee Jersey.
Race 6
#4 Conquistador
It’s been over a year since we’ve seen this once very highly regarded colt by Tiznow. As a 2YO in training he was a 2.4 million dollar purchase. He ran well first time out, so that would lead me to believe that he could run well here off the layoff. Plus trainer Mark Casse is a respectable 18% with these types of layoffs. He’s got six nice works on the tab, and Julien Leparoux is aboard. He also rode him in his prior two starts.
#1 Debating
Steve Asmussen sends out this 3YO son of Giant’s Causeway. Hasn’t raced since August at Ellis Park, but that was a solid effort behind next out winner Curate. Asmussen is off to somewhat of a slow start at the meet with just one win, but he does have six seconds and four thirds. His main guy Santana rides. And there are some snappy works on the tab, so I think he’s ready.
#8 Shining Knight
First time starter for this Juddmonte homebred. Trained by Brad Cox, who is 23% with firsters. Being by Into Mischief should lead him to be fairly speeding, but the works are not overly fast, so I’m taking a wait and see approach with him. Longer distances could be better for this guy. AP Indy on the bottom side of the pedigree.
Race 7
#2 Kittens Slew
Haven’t seen this daughter of Kittens’s Joy since back in June. Before her last race she had run 2 pretty good efforts right here at Churchill. Robby Albarado was aboard for those races and he’s back aboard today. So hopefully he has the magic touch. She ran well off a long layoff last spring, so hopefully she can run well fresh again.
#6 Lucky Move
This girl’s last seven races have been on the main track. Her last effort at Keeneland was a very good second place finish. She gets back to the turf here, which she is capable on as well. Figures to sit a mid pack trip under jockey Albin Jimenez who is off to a really hot start at the meet. Five starts, 3 wins, 1 second, and 1 third.
#9 Soft Cheese
Steve Hobby sends out this four year old filly. She raced in the slop last time, and she hated it, finishing a fading sixth. Will get back to the turf here today, and both of her turf wins come right here at Churchill. She does have a little tactical speed, so she should be able to lay close to the pace. Churchill veteran Chris Landeros rides.
Race 8
#3 Examiner
First time dirt and first time lasix must have done the trick last time for this 3 year old son of Distorted Humor. Broke his maiden very nicely a couple weeks ago at Keeneland. He was able to sit off the speed and then edge clear in the stretch. I’m hoping for a similar trip today as it looks like quite a bit of speed signed up. Brian Hernandez rides for trainer Ben Colebrook.
#4 Givemeaminit
This colt has been off since his run in the G1 H. Allen Jerkens back at Saratoga this summer. He’s a 3YO taking on older horses today, but he’s been running strictly in graded stakes company since last February, so the class is there. Looks to sit off the pace and make one run turning for home. In two tries at this 6F distance he has a win and a second. He has some very nice works leading up to this, and you always have to respect a runner that Dallas Stewart sends out at Churchill.
#5 Rubus
Caught a sloppy track last time out, didn’t seem to appreciate it. He’s been freshened up since then. His race two back was a very strong showing at Saratoga. He looks to be another pace player in here. He has three really strong workouts leading up to this race. He has some back class, last year he ran in races that included Promises Fulfilled, Lone Sailor, and Bravazo. Miguel Mena rides.
Race 9
#4 Stave
3YO filly by Ghostzapper for trainer Larry Jones. She should be forwardly placed in this race that seems devoid of speed, and she has back to back bullet works coming into this race. She has a win at Churchill already on her resume, and has had success at this mile and a sixteenth distance. Her and three others in here are all coming out of a common race at Keeneland. Gabriel Saez rides, and he hits at 17% when riding for Jones.
#3 May Lily
This filly has some of the best speed figures in here. She also has some tactical speed that should allow her to get a good position from her inside post. Two starts back she defeated my top pick in this race, but I’m a little turned off by her last effort, that’s why I’m not putting this girl on top today. If she runs back to form from the summer she probably wins. She has also had success here at Churchill, so maybe that will help return her to top form. Ricardo Santana rides for trainer Gregory Foley.
#5 Smart Shot
This is definitely a horse for course. Both of her lifetime wins have come here beneath the twin spires. Her last two races were not very strong, albeit that was stakes company, so they’ve given her time off leading up to this. Projects to come from off the pace in this one. Adam Beschizza is the pilot.
Race 10
#1 Due to His Charm
Admittedly, I hate these races. Low level claimers going a route distance. For this race, I’m putting this guy on top for two reasons. First, he is in decent form. With a win and a second in his last two races. Secondly, he has had success at this distance. Seven times in the money from ten career tries. With low level races like these, I put a premium on very recent form. Who is doing the best lately. Because these types fall in and out of form so often, so I try to strike while irons hot. (So to speak)
#6 Tensweep
I find this drop in class to be a little suspicious. Last time out he finished third in an Ohio bred allowance race. He was eligible to be claimed for the tag of $25,000, now today he can be claimed for just $5,000. He has run for as low as $15,000 before today, but still, this seems quite low. He has been gelded since his last race, and these connections win a lot, so even given all that I mentioned before it wouldn’t shock me if he won.
#10 Aviator Parks
This 4 year old is making a turf to dirt switch today. He has run the dirt before, including two wins here at Churchill. He hasn’t faced a level this low before, so if he shows up with his A race he definitely has a shot. Gabriel Saez hits at 25% when he teams up with this barn.