Thanks for checking out today’s analysis. Aside from this weekly article I offer daily free full card picks for Gulfstream Park as well as other tracks. Give me a follow on Twitter @mhjpicks. Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card offers us 11 puzzles to solve. Let’s get some winners!
Race 1
Not an impressive group in today’s opener, but at least it looks like we won’t be washed off the turf like last week. I think it’s open, and one horse who is slowly improving is #3 Marianna Queen who should be a decent price. She comes off her best race yet with a figure that is competitive with the rest of the group. Makes sense to look for some odds here. The likely favorite and logical winner is #6 Couple of Nikkis who has taken the couple part of her name to heart with back to back 2nd place finishes as the post time favorite. She will be in the mix again today with favorable consistent speed.
Selections: 3-6-9
Race 2
#2 Tatweej has been working steady to this race for Pletcher who is 27% with second time starters. This 2.5 million dollar purchase looks to have a bright future and should get the first win today having one decent effort under the belt. He should improve on that today #6 El Samuro will look for the upset here after beating this horse last out while showing a huge improvement in his second start.
Selections: 2-6-3
Race 3
#10 Sand Drift is dropping off the win, which is a 38% angle for Joseph, and its hard to ignore the “claim repeater” angle for which he is 43%. Horse looks to have the best speed and seems to have this one covered, but we are talking about a 10 horse field of 12.5k claimers so nothing is certain. #6 Amazing Audrey is one to look at off the layoff with some speed figures that are competitive, some races in the not so distant pass that would win this one, and back to back bullet works. If these don’t tickle your fancy, #2 Picasso Moon is a solid horse who after shaking off the drugs in the system last out could improve here today.
Selections: 10-6-2
Race 4
This one is pretty open. I’ll go with a shot here in #4 Mexican Wonder Boy for Gutierrez who is 30% with shippers. This horse is yet to run in the US but has dominated in Mexico. Reminiscent of one of my choices last week the Mexican wonder horse who faded late is a risky play. #3 Tons of Gold is TC nominated and since winning the maiden race a few back has actually been consistent, should factor here today. #2 Turn on the Magic has faced good competition since winning his maiden race and gets some relief today.
Selections: 4-3-2
Race 5
An interesting race to close out the early pick 5. The three chalky choices look like one of them should be able to win, but there are several others who will have some odds who have a legit shot. Might be a good race to go deep in. #6 Joe Benjamin has been in the trifecta in his last 6 starts, with 4 second place finishes in a row. Will be right up on the lead again today hoping to be able to hang on. #1 Mr. Matuschek is second off the layoff and has finished in the money in three career starts. He was right there with the 6 last out. #9 Nothinbutablur got a terrible start last time and ran well late showing some signs of hope for improvement today. #3 Aventinus is first timer for Maker who is only 11% FTS and only 8% on turf. Could factor today, but think you can find value elsewhere.
Selections: 6-1-9
Race 6
#1 Decente looks tough in this spot first off the claim for Arriagada (17%). She has the best consistent speed and will be involved early. Beyond this one it’s pretty open with the rest of the field being very similar. #4 Grace’s Drama comes off a bullet work and some solid efforts so merits consideration at a good price.
Selections: 1-4-5
Race 7
#1 Apache and jockey Miguel Vasquez teamed up last out for a nice race and I look for this one to run a similarly good race which should be enough to get it done here in this competitive 32k maiden claiming race. He should be right off the pace and ready to pounce in the stretch. #6 Girolamo’s Attack is the likely favorite and figures to be right on the pace. The drop in class could help give him more staying power. #7 Lord Melboune is a first time starter for Plesa who usually gives them a race or two to get going, however this son of Curlin may not hold back today.
Selections: 1-6-7
Race 8
Today’s late pick four kicks off with a monster of a 7.5k turf race for 12.5k claimers with many chances here. I’ll look to the #11 Remember the Maine who has plenty of experience at the distance and has enough speed to run late. Berrios is a solid jockey who led him to victory a couple back. #7 Fuel the Bern gets back to the turf which he has proven the ability to run on. #3 Donji has a couple of wins at the distance. He is a rather boring play as his odds will likely be low (2-1 or lower) and it’s hard to take those odds in this kind of race, but he is a solid contender.
Selections: 11-7-3
Race 9
The Ana T Stakes is #3 Lady’s Island’s to lose. A single who hovers over the field in my opinion. Not much to say for a horse who is 11 for her last 13.
Selections: 3-8-2
Race 10
The tenth is the Mecke Stakes which looks to be a good one on the turf. #5 Galleon Mast has an advantage class wise and runs consistently well. Fawkes is 18% in non-graded stakes and goes to Jaramillo for the mount. #12 Forever Mo has some class as well, but hasn’t shown as much speed recently as some of the others. Could pop one here for Avila who is 16% on the meet. #1 Sailing Solo is one worthy of strong consideration who will look to get out and go for Roussel who has really done well at Gulfstream (29%). Prado will try to make the lead and hold on.
Selections: 5-12-1
Race 11
A classic wide open finale at Gulfstream. Looking to close out with a bang with #9 Jaent who comes over from Tampa and has a chance to run late with Meneses who seems to do well on these types. Should improve in her second start. #8 Moms Love is off a bullet work but just hasn’t been able to break through in previous starts. Today could be the day that she gets there. #6 Dream Adrianna is more of a front end type who drops in class with some flashes of speed in the past.
Selections: 9-8-6