Welcome to beautiful sunny Del Mar! I’ll be your weekly Thursday handicapper for the summer. Thank you to John for covering for me on opening week while I was unavailable. Let’s get started!
Race 1: 6 Furlongs. [S]Mdn 61k
Picks: 4-5-2-7
A field of 7 maidens go out for the first race of the day at Del Mar today. #4 Loaded Joe ran a respectable effort while dirt sprinting before being sent long on the grass his next 2 tries. The 3 year old gelding has not run a bad race, always finishing in the money, and retains the services of Bejarano here. Those stamina building efforts routing over the turf combined with his natural tactical speed could prove useful here.
#5 Satanta is the most intriguing of the first-time starters. While Mullins does not typically have them fully ready first time out, this one attracts red-hot Drayden and has been working out strongly since May. Pedigree supports a sprint distance, and Mullins is ever dangerous at Del Mar, accumulating 7 of his 12 wins at Del Mar in 2018 in maiden races. Appears well meant in this spot.
#2 Jetovator tried dirt for the first time in his last start and seemed to find a new gear, running a career best speed figure for second place. Note the show horse was 17 lengths clear, which certainly calls into question the quality of the field he was up against. A repeat of his last puts him in the mix here.
Race 2: 11/16 Mile (Turf) Clm 32000n1y
Picks: 2-6-3-9
In what appears to be a relatively paceless affair, #2 Kenjisstorm looms a major threat as the lone speed. Draw a line through the race 3 back on the dirt and he has been very competitive in some tough races, going up against the likes of Caribou Club, Stormy Liberal, Conquest Tsunami, and Oscar Dominguez. He finds no such foes here, and gets some significant class relief in his first start with Carava, who fires at 17% first off the claim. The slight cutback to 8.5f should benefit him after faltering late in his last 2 efforts going 9f.
#6 Terrys Tom Cat seems to steal a win at a price at Del Mar each year, as he won a race in the summer of 2017 and 2018 at odds of 10-1 and 12-1, respectively. Possessing a bit of tactical speed in a race short of front runners, he projects to sit a good trip and is eligible to improve second of the layoff while getting back to his preferred surface.
#3 Unusually Green will need a bit of help in front of him but was a game second last out to Calle Kingpin, who came back to win a $40,000 Claiming race at Del Mar on July 18th. Just barely qualifying for these conditions with a December 31 win, the 8-year-old gelding demands respect in this spot.
Note: Keep an eye on the scratch board, as the pace dynamics could shift significantly if the AE #10 Start a Runnin draws in.
Race 3: 5 Furlongs. [F]MC 80000 TWO YEARS OLD.
Picks: 2-3-5-4
Race 3 brings us a field of 2 year old maiden fillies with some of the hottest freshman sires to date. #2 Convoluted enters are the morning line favorite for Peter Miller (38%) and Flavien Prat( 38%), the strongest connections at the meet thus far. By Distorted Humor, whose progeny win first 16% at first asking, this filly has worked consistently leading to this debut. Graded stakes placed dam Sweet Lips was 13-6-2-1 and has produced 6 winners from 7 starters thus far.
#3 Establish Justice goes out for the O’Neill barn out of the leading freshman sire Constitution, who has produced 4 first out winners from 10 starters this year. The lack of works after July 9 is mildly concerning. Bejarano gets aboard for a barn that knows how to win with juveniles.
#5 Magically Honored, the second half of an uncoupled O’Neill entry, is by another promising freshman sire multiple G1 winner Honor Code (1/6 with first time starters). Garcia and O’Neill have hit at 36% together the past 60 days, although the morning workouts have come back on the weaker side. Another threat in an open race.
Race 4: 5 Furlongs (Turf) [F]Mdn 61k
Picks: 2-4-1-3
#2 Stylishly goes out in her first start for the ever dangerous Callaghan barn. Possesses enough early speed to work to be dangerous, and was beaten less than a length in her lone try at 5f prior. Gradual improvement in each of her past 4 starts – no reason to expect that to stop now, and another slight improvement will make her tough in this spot.
#4 Apples Arch woke up on the drop last out, narrowly missing by a half-length. Back to turf sprinting, which seems to be her game at this stage, she paired her two year old top thorograph last out and should be primed for another move forward today.
#1 Raneem will take undeserved money due to the Baffert angle, but dirt to turf has been a very weak angle historically (11%, $1.29 ROI). Early speed and a rail draw should help, and there is a turfy pedigree about this one. One to consider, but only at a price.
Race 5: 1 Mile. Clm 8000
Picks: 4-1-8-3
The 5th at Del Mar appears to be a race without a clear-cut leader. #4 Excavation failed as the even money favorite in a 5-horse race at Los Alamitos last out, but he had a rough trip getting hung 3-4 wide around both turns and was between horses for much of the race. He projects to be somewhat forwardly placed and is already proven over the Del Mar main track and at this distance.
#1 Top of the Game appears to be the probable pacesetter, especially as he picks up the services of aggressive rider Norberto Arroyo Jr and breaks from the rail. The 62.5K claim for Ryan Hanson has not turned out well, and this is about the bottom of the barrel for him. Now or never on the additional class drop, but he should be competitive on speed figures going out for the cold Hanson barn (1/35).
Likely to be ignored at the window, #8 Hey Sequoia goes out for underrated small-time trainer Alfredo Marquez. Not exactly a household name, Marquez had 4 winners from 11 starters last year at Del Mar with a robust $9.38 ROI, including a record of 8-3-0-2 on the main track. He already has a winner at Del Mar this year. Hey Sequoia was perhaps a touch overmatched last race in the optional claiming try at Los Al, but his race 2 back was excellent and makes him a competitor here.
Race 6: 1 Mile.(Turf) [F][S]OC 20000n1x
Picks: 8-4-2-1
#8 Opus Won has come into her 3-year-old season significantly improved from her 2-year-old form, rattling off an impressive maiden win and a game second place to Lostintranzlation, who came back to win a n1x optional claiming race at Del Mar on July 21. The maiden score was especially eye-catching, as she dueled into sizzling fractions of 21.3 and 45.1 going a mile on the Santa Anita turf, put away the other speeds (who ran last and 4th beaten by over 11 lengths), and held off the late charging Y Not Sizzle. Gets the services of red-hot jockey Flavien Prat, firing at 38% this meet.
#4 Majorie E figures logical in this spot. She has every right to improve third off the layoff, and wasn’t beaten by all that much by Opus Won in her last outing. Drayden Van Dyke has been on a tear lately (26%) and elects to take the mount for a horse who has done some of her best running at this track.
#2 Shehastheritestuff gets a tough inside draw on a course where middle to outer posts are more favorable, but Doug O’Neil is known for having them ready first off the claim. Appears to have tailed off form a bit late last year and still struggling to find her niche. Perhaps barn change will help right the ship.
#1 Sedamar has never been out of the money in turf races; draw a line through her two dirt efforts and she seems an awful logical contender here. The rail draw does not do her any favors (8% winners over last 2 years) but she has the speed figures to compete with this field. Fuentes and Ruis have already teamed up once this meet to win a claiming race on July 21.
Race 7: 1 Mile. MC 50000
Picks: 5-9-8-7
Thursday’s card closes with a rather uninspiring group of maiden claimers. #5 Unbroken Star makes his debut for recent upset specialist Ron Ellis, who is 5/14 (36%) lately in debuting horses for a tag. Unbroken Star is a half sibling to multiple stakes winner Gold Medal Dancer, who won the 8.5f Azeri Stakes in 2015. Distance is unlikely to be a problem for this one if he’s fit and ready.
#9 Lostinthemoment lost all chance last out when he broke in the air and found himself 17 lengths last. He seems well meant, shipping in from Emerald Downs for a trainer who does well with this move. Drayden’s ending up on this horse is telling, as he had other options. Drayden and Puhlich combination is 1 for 1 with a $15.60 ROI so far this meet.
#8 Potantico showed promise when running 4th by 3 lengths in a maiden special weight at Santa Anita in June, but did no running at all in his 3 other starts. Perhaps the Santa Anita race was an outlier? Takes the biggest class drop in racing down to the maiden claiming level. If he finds a way to repeat that effort he will be tough here.
#7 Ohtani figures likely to hit the board, but would have liked to have seen improvement by now. Likely needs a drop in class. Pereira is cold this meet (0/16) and others entice more at longer prices.