Churchill Downs Racing Analysis — Sunday, June 16, 2019, by Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1

1st #5 Bronco Sally is moving from the allowance ranks to now being in for a tag after two lackluster fourth place finishes.  She looks the best on paper to be honest as far as winning horses go, as a lot of the others are going up in class.  She’s trained by Danny Pish.

2nd #3 Seeds of Time was claimed two back for $30,000 and has ran third twice in a row.  John Ortiz is a good up and coming trainer, and Lanerie is one of the best riders at Churchill as he has won the jockey title sixteen times over his career span.

#2 Righteous Ruby is lightly raced compared to some of these other gals.  She just won last out by almost a length, kind of struggled a little.  This field will be a little more difficult for her, but she’ll be alright.

Race 2

1st #4 Hitch just makes sense to take on top.  A $500,000 purchase, he has about the best breeding one could ever dream of.  Unfortunately on paper he hasn’t started out to be a star, but is getting better.  When he ran 5th three back, note that he only lost by two lengths.  He’s also getting better slowly but surely.

2nd #2 Scars are Cool (really, really weird name for a horse), ran 4th in his first race.  He was closer and faded, and now this race is stretching out quite a bit.  So he’s going to need a different tactic, hopefully he will get a slow pace, just hang out, and then make a move.

3rd #6 Dinar ran third at Keeneland in his debut, and no love from the bettors- he’s at 6/1.  It was a good race despite his bad break and troubled trip.  He deserves some credit for that.

Race 3

1st #6 Pat Daddy has four wins in a row and hasn’t lost in his one start at Churchill which was last out.  Even though his races were just cheap starter races, wins at Oaklawn are a huge deal so don’t discount those three wins. 

2nd #8 Gentrified could be a challenge to #6, but was beat pretty badly last out by him because he clipped heals with another rival and all bets were off.  Karl Broberg trains the seven time winner, who’s now been pretty much all around the country.

3rd #2 Tres Equis took a while to get steered in the right direction.  After he broke his maiden, Mike Maker stuck him in a grade three.  It didn’t work out well and it looks on paper that the horse needed some confidence.  It took him 19 starts after that grade three, but he’s in better shape.

Race 4

1st #4 Boxwood is running in a group of fillies that is pretty solid, but she looks close to the best.  She won an allowance race here by ten lengths, with the comment “as the rider pleased”.  She just won a stakes last out and is a lovely filly.

2nd #3 Change of Control went out on the turf last out for the first time and won a stakes race.  All worked out well.  Didn’t start her career out with a bang, but her last three races have been phenomenal.

3rd #1 Shang Shang Shang is being asked to do something pretty tricky, and that is to win off of a near year long layoff.  She did win at Ascot last out and that is a huge deal, and all the power to the daughter of Shanghai Bobby coming back.

Race 5

1st #7 Julius is trained by Brad Cox, and Brad Cox wins nearly every race day.  This guy just lost last out by a nose as he had drifted out.  It was a tough loss, but the son of Tapit and Amen Hallelujah who was a graded stakes winner, has a lot to live up to.

2nd #9 Plug and Play is taking a class drop for Steve Asmussen after his two first races were not good.  They were tough races, and this one still is.  So we will see how he does on a little class drop.

3rd #8 Zapper Van Winkle lost last out pretty good, but came up there if you take a look how far he was back and where he ended up after he closed it was an improvement.

Race 6

1st #2 A.P. Princess should be the one on top.  All but one of her Oaklawn races were good, and check out how much higher she went in class and handled it really well.  She’s almost made back her purchase price just by hitting the board at Oaklawn.

2nd #5 Spackle dips down in for half the price she ran last time.  She managed to lose by twenty lengths last out.  Blinkers off.  Not sure how to feel about her but don’t know who else to put in second.

3rd #10 Holly Molly Dolly goes from a $75K price tag to a $30K one.  That is a much better spot for her.  This one gets the blinkers on as the daughter of Arch seeks to get on the board for the first time.

Race 7

1st #2 British Humor is coming down a little in class which is nice.  James Graham sticks with him which is good to see.  This is a better spot for him.

2nd #1 Cosmic Hallelujah doesn’t seem to like routing, and has had success sprinting where he won last year quite easily.  A class drop should also benefit him.  Might get a little price.

3rd #8 Salt Air looks tempting but I think he will need an out after six months off.  His works are ok, but Eddie Kenneally is also having a great meet for a little positivity.

Race 8

1st #8 Face of Victory didn’t lose by much last out and it was a really solid effort.  Although the top two finishers haven’t came back yet, Pillar Mountain who finished just in front of this guy last out has came back and won at Belmont last weekend.

2nd #2 Apreciado went from a $30,000 claimer to a huge allowance race and ran a solid second.  Not something seen too often and that calls for respect.  He almost caught the winner too, so close.

3rd #11 Broth has a sketchy racing record based on the amount of layoffs he has between races.  However, he always runs really well off of those layoffs.  He’s hard not to take to put on the board.

Race 9

1st #1a Carrizo didn’t run well in the stakes at Oaklawn last out.  Now she’s coming to a slightly softer spot running for the $75K price tag.  I think this race is between her and her stablemate.

2nd #1 Mgr Treasure also looks good coming from Oaklawn on a class drop.  Both of these gals are trained by Steve Asmussen.  I am curious which one Santana will ride.  That’s the one to really bet on.

3rd #5 Lady of Luxury is trained by Larry Jones who does a fantastic job training at his home track which would be Churchill Downs.  This horse has major ups and downs, coming down a little in class which makes her look good in this spot.

Race 10- 1st #1 Dreams Are Made is coming off of a long layoff.  Joe Sharp has his top jockey on this horse and together they make a great team.  Sharp is also good at having horses ready to go.

2nd #7 Yes It’s Ginger is one of the lone horses in her who actually has sprinted on the turf before and it seems to work out well for her as she has shown in her past two starts.

3rd #11 Shilah Baby had a great season at Oaklawn, and a close call where she lost by just a neck.  Her last couple of races haven’t been great, which leads me to wonder if she even belongs on the turf.  We will find out!

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