Back after a week-long break. I got three winners on the Feb. 7 and Feb. 14 cards, so let my luck continue (and yours as well).
RACE 1: Maiden claiming $50,000, one mile, turf
I’m going to go with #8 PINK PEPPERMINT. This filly is intriguing. Finished second in her first race in a MSW $70K race at AQU. She faced a tougher field at AQU and placed ITM. Her trainer Jonathan Thomas is batting .40 with horses going from MSW to MCL, .29 going dirt-to-turf, .26 with horses coming off a 31-60-day layoff and .50 in maiden claiming races. Those are some sweet numbers to consider.
PICKS: 8-5-2
RACE 2: Claiming $25,000, seven furlongs, dirt
Tough one to handicap. I’m gonna go with #2 LOVELY LADY LEXI. Trainer Gilberto Zerpa is one of the best trainers in dirt sprints. He’s also batting .30 with horses off the claim. He claimed this filly last time out and he’s got top jockey Paco Lopez riding. Lopez is winning at an .18 clip right now. It could be anyone’s race, but this filly seems to stand out compared to the rest of the field.
PICKS: 2-3-1
RACE 3: Maiden claiming, 7 ½ furlongs, turf
Another tough one to handicap. I’m picking #7 BARBIE’S KING. This filly has placed ITM three times at 7 ½ furlongs. Trainer Edwin Broome is batting .29 in turf sprints and .29 going from route races to sprint races. Jockey Edgar Prado is riding and the trainer-jock combo is pretty solid at .29. BARBIE’S KING is a closer so I see her blazing down the stretch.
PICKS: 7-8-2
RACE 4: Claiming $16,000, five furlongs, turf
Another turf sprint. I like #8 KEEP IT UP. It’s trained by GP big fish Saffie Joseph who’s having a spectacular season (104 29 28 12 .28). Gelding almost won last time out and he’s the only one in this field that runs consistently in the money. He also ran 70+ Beyers at this distance on today’s surface at this track. The trainer-jock combo with Tyler Gaffalione makes this a solid play too (65 .37 AVG. ROI $2.65). One of my safest bets of the day.
PICKS: 8-5-6
RACE 5: Maiden Special Weight $44,000 (Fla. breds), one mile, dirt
A small field and Trainer Todd Pletcher has one in here #1 ROMAN EMPIRE. The colt placed in his last race and earned a 69 Beyer. Pletcher’s go-to jockey John Velasquez is riding too (trainer-jock combo is 83 .22 AVG. ROI $1.40). #6 FREEDOM FORCE has a shot as well. Trainer Rudy Brisset isn’t bad when it comes to FTSs (.12) and FTS debut at a mile (.12). Gaffalione is riding FREEDOM FORCE and should go off at better odds.
PICKS: 1-6-2
RACE 6: Claiming $20,000, one mile, turf
There’s a lot of good horses but I gotta pick one. I’m going with #7 VERDICT IS IN. Jockey Paco Lopez is 2-for-2 on this gelding and one of those wins came on this surface and this distance at GP. Trainer Eddie Plesa bats .20 in turf races and .19 in route races. I’m tempted to go with #10 BUNDI BUNDI because it’s Victor Barbosa’s horse and he’s a turf route specialist. He’s also batting a whopping .46 with first races of a claim or sale. Except BUNDI BUNDI is breaking from the outside post and I’m skeptical he will come across first.
PICKS: 7-10-8-4
RACE 7: Claiming $8,000N3X, six furlongs, dirt
I like #9 KILLER DEE. Horse was claimed by trainer Rohan Crichton and Crichton is 7-for-19 with a .37 winning percentage for first races off the claim. Jockey Wilmur Gaviz is looking for his first win of the year and almost did it two back, finishing second. This colt seems to be the best of the rest.
PICKS: 9-10-5
RACE 8: Claiming $16,000, one mile, turf
I could see a closer winning this one. The best in this crowed field (14 horses) is #12 NATIONAL HONOR. Trainer Jane Cibelli is a turf route specialist (16-for-88, .18 in the last two meets and .17 in 2020) and a claiming queen (.29 in 2020). This gelding keeps missing and I think it has to do with the lack of ideal pace. I think he’ll win this time. Cibelli is also batting .29 with horses making their second start after a 45-180-day layoff. Plus Paco Lopez is riding and this trainer-jock combo is batting .29 at Gulfstream this season. This horse has the best speed figures out of all the closers. I’ll see him running late crossing the wire first (I hope at least).
PICKS: 12-11-2-13
RACE 9: Optional claiming $75,000/N1X, 6 ½ furlongs, dirt-to-t
Today’s main event. I’m going with #6 FASHION BABE. Filly has only ran five career races and placed ITM in all five races. She won last time out and trainer Jason Servis is batting .29 with horses that won their last race. Javier Castellano gets the ride and the trainer-jock combo is one of the best in the field (5 .20 AVG. ROI $1.54). I’d go with #7 EVE OF WAR, especially after that eye-popping win and earning an 88 Beyer, but Servis has better luck and better stats with horses that win last time out (.29 vs. 22 for Todd Pletcher). FASHION BABE should go off at nicer odds too. EVE OF WAR will get all the chalk. Should be a great sprint.
PICKS: 6-7-5
RACE 10: Claiming $16,000N2L, 1 1/16 mile, turf
Last one of the day and it’s usually a bomb that wins it. I’ll go with a long shot and I’ll pick #11 LOOKIN FOREVER. Trainer Juan Rizo is 7-for-31 with a .23 winning percentage, .45 ITM and 7-for-26 .27 in turf route races (today’s distance). He’s one of the most notable bomb squad trainers at GP, according to Progressive Handicapping (my handicapping bible). All of the races he’s won here have been for Santa Cruz Ranch Inc. and LOOKIN FOREVER owns this gelding. He’s a closer and needs a perfect set-up, but crazy things usually happen in the last race of the day.
PICKS: 11-1-5