Golden Gate Racing Analysis- Jan 15, 2021, by Dave Chen

Racing is back at Golden Gate Fields today after being suspended for 2 months. Racing will be normally conducted on a Thursday through Sunday basis aside from holiday racing dates. Opening day features a mandatory payout in the Golden Pick 6 wager starting in race 3. Carryover amount is about $26k. I think the pool could be around $125k when the red light flashes and the gate opens. It’s a really good card of racing, especially the maiden races. Happy for racing to return and here is how I see the card.

Race 1: 5 Furlongs $8,000 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (3-4-1)

3 Mark Whats Mine can kick start a busy afternoon for the Steve Specht barn. She drops in class out of a maiden 12.5 event. Blinkers also come off today. She comes in off a nice workout just 9 days ago fastest of four. The daughter of Tamarando fits under the category of a horse of a 61-180 day layoff which Specht sports a 22% win clip.

4 Run the Blues Away takes a massive drop in class. She debuted at Los Al against state bred maiden 50s. Today is in for 8. Trainer Jonathan Wong spots his runners well and is 24% with maiden second time starters.

1 Take Her Temp comes North for trainer Steve Miyadi. She has worked over the tapeta surface since her maiden 30 race at Los Al. I think 5 Furlongs will be a little short for her as she seems to enjoy two turns. Also she draws the rail. One positive is getting Kyle Frey the leading jockey on board.

Race 2: 6 Furlongs $12,500 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (6-4-8)

6 Don’t Rub It makes her first start for trainer Blaine Wright. She exits a very live race last out as 3 horses have come back to win next out including a stakes race. She comes North off the layoff and has been working well in the mornings over the surface.

4 Winning Appeal is one of two from the Ed Moger barn. This daughter of Grazen shipped down South to run against Cal Bred maiden 50s. Before she was here against protected maidens. She drops in class and can improve with Evin Roman getting the mount.

8 Marvelous Marvella was good in defeat two back against maiden 25s. Put a line through her last race as she wasn’t involved and might not have enjoyed the dirt surface. Back on tapeta against easier and can win.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs $12,500 Maiden Claiming 3 year olds (7-9-3)

This is the start of the mandatory pick 6 payout.

7 Russian Diplomat ran a good race two back rallying from off the pace to finish third. He should also appreciate an extra half furlong today and will hope to run into a hot pace. The team of Alejandro Gomez and Terri Eaton could pair for a double with the 8 from race 2.

9 Mr. Artistic went down to Los Al to run a pair of races last month. He returns to the Bay today and when he was last here he ran against runners at a higher level. Has one work since returning and could appreciate the slight drop in class.

3 Colavito was last seen beaten 26 lengths at Los Al routing. He is cutting back in distance and dropping in class but there is just a negative/question mark. Why hasn’t he hit the work tab since his last race which was nearly a month ago. If he runs back to his prior form here at Golden Gate he will be tough to beat though.

Race 4: 6 Furlongs $50,000 Starter Allowance 3 year olds (6-5-1)

6 City Champ was a winner at this level two back. He sat off the pace and rallied to victory that day. I think he will get a similar pace setup. His most recent race routing was a bit long for him as he got tired. The cutback from a route to a sprint should help him and he is one of two in here with more than one win.

5 Bobby’s Alibi is also cutting back from a route to a sprint. In fact he’s exiting a common race with our top pick. They have alternated between who finishes better. This horse hasn’t finished being on the front end his last two times. I think sitting right off the pace better suits his running style.

1 Copper Halo ran two back and broke his maiden against protected Cal Bred maidens. Compared with others in this field that’s the highest level where a horse has broken his maiden. He has also never missed the trifecta in four races on the tapeta surface.

Race 5: 1 Mile Maiden Special Weight (Cal Breds) 3 year olds (4-3-8)

4 Twice the Price really improved in his last start. He made up a ton of ground in the stretch only to fall a half length short. That was against maiden 30s but today is protected. I also think his price will be the better of the two between him and the 3 who both finished within range of each other. He beat the 3 horse and is 8/1. The 3 is 4/1.

3 Stalking Shadow also improved in his most recent route race. He should get a pace to run at and will be bet based on the connections of Jonathan Wong. He is returning from Southern California as he worked at Santa Anita 8 days ago.

8 Tribal Nation finished second at Los Al against Cal Bred maiden 50s. Since he has worked steadily over the tapeta. He will route for the first time today with Kyle Frey aboard. He could be the one to catch up front on the stretch out. Andy Mathis is 33% going from a sprint to a route.

Race 6: 1 Mile $4,000 Claiming 4 year olds & up (6-7-10)

6 Collusion Delusion is a class dropper who most recently made his first start in 5 months. He ran decently for his big odds that day. Second off the break and dropping down to the near bottom should allow him to improve. His maiden breaker two back in May was routing against maiden 8s. Hoping we can get a nice price with the 12/1 morning line.

7 Kaline most recently ran on dirt at Los Al against tougher. He comes back North and drops in class. Frank Alvarado retains the mount on this gelding. He hasn’t done much wrong in his tapeta routes. Hope he sits in the second flight of runners mid pack. He’s worked 6 furlongs most recently so should be fit and ready for a bounceback effort.

10 Blues Rapper will be drawn very wide but I don’t think it affects him as he doesn’t need the lead. In fact I expect Kyle Frey to tuck over early to save ground into the first turn. He makes one run and grinds away when others tire. He would also appreciate a hot pace to run at.

Race 7: 5.5 Furlongs $25,000 Maiden Claiming 3 year olds (6-11-7)

6 Lastbesthope I believe is the fastest in the field. He is dropping in class from maiden special weights in for the 25 claiming tag today. He was close two back on turf but I think the drop in class makes the difference. Frank Alvarado and Steve Specht team up once again here and are one of the better jockey trainer tandems here.

11 Walking With Dino is a logical contender to pick up the pieces should the speed come back. This horse has some speed himself but I don’t see him beating the 6 to the front. I’m not too concerned with the work pattern as trainer Bill McLean isn’t known for eye catching works. I also like Kyle Frey reuniting with this horse.

7 Rip Wheeler is dropping from maiden special weights to maiden claiming as well. He is exiting a race in which there have been two next out winners including one at Del Mar. I think he might possibly get ignored in the wagering and hold up at 6/1 despite a class drop.

Race 8: 1 Mile $4,000 Claiming 4 year olds & up (7-6-2)

7 Incredible Luck got beaten by a head in his most recent start at Los Al. That was against slightly tougher and for him, it was on a surface not to his liking as he is winless on dirt. He gets back to tapeta and gets back with Evin Roman who has ridden him well. Expect him to sit near the speed and pounce.

6 Gobsmack won against weaker competition and steps up in class today. I don’t think 12/1 is fair considering he was only 1.5 lengths behind the top pick who’s 5/2. Expect this horse to be called on late for Billy Antongeorgi. 

2 Perfect Come Back is facing a lot easier than he’s faced of late today. He’s in for his lowest price tag today and figures to get a pace to run into. Third start of the form cycle and hopefully can improve. There are some really nice horses in his running line.

Best Bet: Race 2 Don’t Rub It 7/2

Price Play: Race 6 Collusion Delusion 12/1

A really good opening day card. Many horses have been waiting for the races to return so many have a live shot even if the odds may indicate otherwise. A really fun card to play. Best of luck on all wagers!

Twitter: @sportsandhorse

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