Hello all and welcome back to the Spa on this fabulous Friday afternoon! We have 10 races on tap for you today and there is almost no chance for rain today which is fantastic to see on Whitney eve. Let’s jump right into the card here and get hot picking some winners to build our bankroll for Whitney day tomorrow.
Race 1: 6-2-5
#6 PAZZION is a first time starter today for Todd Pletcher who has very solid numbers with debut runners. This filly has some very consistent workouts since July began. The sire is 14% with debut runners which is very solid and this is a very tightly contested race with nobody standing out here too much more than others, but I still like her on top. #2 STYLISH RAGS is another first time starter with a sire who has 10% debut winners. Trainer is fantastic with first time starters and especially when debuting his runners in maiden claiming races. This filly has very solid workouts and some that are a bit flashy and though I didn’t want to have an Ortiz brothers exacta in the first, it just kind of happened.
Race 2: 2-4-8
#2 MISSLE BOMB is coming off the bench after being a monthly runner last year before going on the shelf. With that being said the gelding ran third in his only attempt off the layoff. Luis Saez is jumping back up here and in three races on this guy he has two wins and a second. He also has 2 runs ITM in 3 tries here at the Spa and is a very solid 11 for 13 ITM at this distance as well. This is a bigger drop down here so he has class over the rest of the contenders here. We also see some solid workouts, with a couple flashy ones in the collection which makes me very confident he can jump back into it off the layoff here. #4 BUSINESS CYCLE has been ITM in all 6 races this year and is 9 times ITM out of 11 races on fast tracks which we will have here today. This gelding won at this level here at Saratoga before and has 2 seconds also here at the Spa meaning he is 3 for 3 ITM here. His most recent race at this distance in June at Belmont, he won and may be a little light from a Beyer standpoint but looks very capable at a decent 6/1 ML price.
Race 3: 5-8-6
Going for a nice looking longshot here in the #5 CHAMPAGNE DIET at 10/1 ML. This filly has run the most out of anybody in this field and her Beyer’s completely stack up to this field. Since that last race we see two solid works with one being the second best out of 73 runners that day. I like her in this spot as her best ever Beyer came at the longest distance she ever ran, she carried on after the wire that day and she definitely has the pedigree to get this distance. I think she will handle the added distance the best out of anybody in this group and that makes me confident she can win here at a very nice price. #8 SENGEKONTACKET ran for the first time on the grass last time out and just missed before the wire. She looks to be the speed here as there is not much pace in this race and Lezcano being the aggressive rider he is should send. My only concern which keeps her from being the top selection is the added distance here. She should be able to get it pedigree wise, but hasn’t run over a mile in her career. Both of these are worth a win bet here so pick who you like more.
Race 4: 2-1-5
#2 LADY TNT gets the nod here in a very competitive race here (recurring theme here in the opening early pick 5). This filly is making her second start off the layoff so I definitely expect some improvement here and can forgive that last race. She’s a Grade 3 winner and has 3 ITM finishes in 7 attempts at this distance and her workouts since then have been increasingly getting better. This filly will give Luis Saez options as he can either go for the lead or take up a nice stalking trip here. #1 WHAT A FOX has won the last two races that she was up for purchase in. Two of those races were this year as she is 3 for 4 ITM this year. One of those races was her best Beyer she ever earned and we see two very nice bullet works since that last race in her two most recent works.
Race 5: 4-2-12
#4 SILENT EMPRESS is a first time starter going against a lot of those who have run before. It’s not usually my thing to go for first time starters against runners who have experience but I’m doing it for this reason and this reason only. Joel Rosario, riding for Christophe Clement. That’s it, these two together have been unbelievable this meet and are 34% here together. Joel’s rides on turf sprints have been unreal and perfectly timed and I would be silly to leave this one on the table with the good works she has. Try and demand value however as it is still a first time starter. #2 SANDRA’S MINE has some solid races on the turf but what makes me a little weary is the fact that her best Beyer’s come at routes. The jockey trainer are at 29% however, Jose coming back up is very promising and she does have the best collection of Beyer’s in the field however by a good amount.
Race 6: 3-1-8
#3 ZEALOUS gets Luis Saez up and when Luis and this gelding have teamed up they have won once and finished second in the other of the two running’s. One of those races were here at the Spa and those races with Saez were two of his best Beyer’s. His two races at this distance have also resulted in a win and a second. I do like the drop in class here, the trainer is 24% off this type of layoff and there’s a very solid collection of works here. #1 EMPIRE LINE has two very solid works including one bullet work since that last race. Jose Ortiz jumps back up today which is encouraging and coming second off the layoff I do believe we will see some improvement. Has the most class in this field and should be a shorter price here.
Race 7: 10-7-3
#10 DYNADRIVE is stretching out to this distance for the first time and sire was a Grade 2 winning router so the distance isn’t a worry here. This guy on the turf is ITM 5 of 6 times he’s run and he’s 4 for 4 ITM this year. This race sets up very well here for a closer as the other two picks have a good amount of speed here for him to close late. Irad jumping up here is very encouraging and the switch back to the turf here makes me confident. #7 GRAVITAS has ascending speed figures in his three races and figures to be the speed in this race. He will get pace pressure from the inside from our third choice here. He’s never finished worse than second in the three career races he possesses. Javier jumping up here is encouraging and the step down is class should help him a bit here.
Race 8: 6-7-8
This race is an interesting one and I think that the favorites are vulnerable so something silly can happen here. #6 SHESASUPERFREAK ran a very solid race at this distance last time out second off the layoff. This race there is a right to improve in this second off the layoff attempt and look at that bullet workout that is very similar to the one we saw before that last race. There are no world beaters in this race and the pace sets up very well for somebody to stalk the pace which this filly can do. Her best Beyer’s can compete with this crop and she does well at this distance. At 15/1 ML this could be a nice bomb to go for. #7 WAILIN JOSIE is a stalker who can benefit from the speed up front. She has a bullet workout as well and her Beyer’s also compare well to this crew. There is room to improve third off the layoff and seems to fit well here at 10/1 ML in a race where the pace could break down.
Race 9: 9-6-5
Full disclosure this is an extremely competitive race and you can make a case for multiple runners here but I landed on #9 SHE’S MY TYPE (FR). I’ll lead off with my point from race 5, Joel and Christophe Clement in turf sprints are unbelievably hot. There is room to improve second off the layoff here after a nice second in the Lady Shipman stakes at Belmont. That was her best Beyer figure and if she improves again then she will most likely be the winner of this field, especially if she gets a good trip here. There is speed in front of her that she will be able to make a run at. #6 BREDENBURY (IRE) won the Lady Shipman last time out after stalking the pace, and sitting in second then taking the lead and not looking back. That was her best race in the states as she improved off the layoff. Motion has had a tough meet thus far but she is a threat coming back to repeat, I’ll be playing these two in an exacta.
Race 10: 1-3-5
#1 HURRICANE BREEZE gets the nod here in a very competitive finale as I believe the race sets up for her very well here. There are a good amount of speed in this race and this filly can stalk the pace very well, Jose should give her a good ride here. She ran her best Beyer at this distance to races ago and has run second in both her races at this distance. The jockey trainer stats are fantastic here as they’re 32% at Saratoga and 19% overall which is very promising. #3 LIDO KEY is a closer who this race sets up for very well too. This filly is two times ITM out of three with a win and a place. Tyler is a very good rider coming from the back and he should be getting that pace to chase, she’s a shorter price but we have prices around her here. #5 LEEWAY Joel, Christophe Clement. I won’t say why again.