Race 1: Maiden Claiming $15,000, 2yo, 6 Furlongs
A tricky maiden claiming race begins the Saturday show (and the early pick 4). None of the three horses who have raced have shown any ability, so this seems like a good spot to lean towards a first-time starter. The easy cop-out is to go with the 1 My Boy Lollipop, for the dangerous trainer/jockey combo of Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. Brad’s a sharp 26% with maiden claiming horses and 19% with firsters on the whole. The hard part with this horse is that they paid $50,000 for him last year as a yearling, and now are willing to lose him for $15,000. Still, it looks like all My Boy Lollipop has to do is show SOME ability, and he’ll win.
The other debuter worth looking at is the 4 Awe Patriot, for Joe Duhon and Edgar Morales. He’s got a steady worktab, with a slow drumbeat of workouts getting ready for this spot. In fact, he’s got the second-most workouts of the four firsters in the race, so he should be well conditioned, if nothing else.
Race 2: Starter Optional Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, LA-bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Eight southern belles square off in this sprint, coming from all four tracks in Louisiana. Tons of speed is signed on to this race, including the 1 Born to D’Wild, the 2 Sucre, and, especially, the 5 Green Lakes.
The first of those three has the best late pace figures, but also the worst early speed figures, and hasn’t raced since mid-July at Evangeline Downs. She might need a screw-tightener. Sucre makes her second start for the Ron Faucheux barn, which has been getting off to a lightning-fast start at the Fair Grounds meet. He’s winning at a 29% clip. She was in prime form over the summer at Evangeline, but struggled in her last two over the bull-ring track at Delta Downs. Perhaps moving to the big track will wake her up. Green Lakes knows only one way to go, and that’s on the lead. Last out, she got entangled in a duel, and stopped badly at 6/5. I fear today might be no different.
The top pick in this one will be the 3 New Year’s Party, as this year winds down. She’s got a perfect running style for a race like this: usually she sits just off the leaders, then pounces in the stretch. It worked to perfection last out, when she made a strong rally from midpack and won by 3/4 of a length.With her post position, she can drop in right off the leaders, then inherit the top when they get tired, and just keep going.
Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 2yo, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Very interesting field of seven youngsters lines up here. 2 Hieronymus is a mystery. He won his first start going gate-to-wire at Ellis Park back in August. In his first start off a long layoff at Churchill Downs, he showed speed, then flattened out after a pace battle and lost badly. His workouts since that race have gotten sharper, and you can never discount a Brad Cox horse. Still, what if he encounters more pace pressure here? He’s already proven that he struggles when faced with adversity on the lead against winners. Hieronymus is one of two for Cox in this field; the other is the 3 Tecumseh’s War, coming off a fourth-place try in the same race Hieronymus exits. He won his debut at Indiana Grand with the aid of a great trip.
5 Blackberry Wine turned in two competitive thirds in tough maiden races in Kentucky this year, before running off the screen in his debut over dirt. He gets back to the grass here, a surface where he’s never won, but has run some great speed figures on. Definitely a contender. The likely favorite is the 6 Natural Power, coming off a huge race at Churchill where he broke slowly and closed off a ridiculously slow pace to lose by a neck. His three starts prior were in Ireland, so it’s hard to get a read on his running style. If he always closes from way behind, he could be at the mercy of a slow pace. Still, the way he closed, and the fact that Florent Geroux picks up the mount, suggests promise. The 7 Cruel Summer broke his maiden in his sixth try last out. That’s usually a red flag: horses who like winning don’t usually take six races before getting to the winner’s circle. That being said, his speed figure has improved in each of his last four races, he has a win over this track, and he’s shown to be forwardly placed. He’s got a shot.
Race 4: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
Steve Asmussen sends out two runners in this nine-horse affair. His top jockey, Ricardo Santana, picked 1 She Beast, making her first start since July 6. She’s 1-for-7 in her career so far, with a desperate maiden win at Oaklawn Park in March the only W on her ledger. She was not terribly inspiring in her three tries earlier in the year, against similar horses as today. The other one, 9 Al Shamkhah, has raced just once in the United States, an uninspiring fifth at this level at Belmont Park. Her speed figure was solid — an 81 on the brisnet scale — but visually, she showed no punch after rating off the pace. She’s had nine weeks since that race, maybe it’s helped.
A few others intrigue in here. 3 Its Cold in Dehere has been in top form as of late. Taking out an inexplicably dull race three starts back at Churchill, she’s earned an 83 in three of her last four starts. She’s a four-time winner this year, albeit all in lower-class races. 6 Lady of Luxury took advantage of a great pace setup last out, drawing off to a win after rating off some collapsing leaders. She’ll race for the first time since September 29; that big win also came off a long break. 8 Weneedtotalk was in prime form last winter at this track, never finishing worse than third in four starts before hitting the sidelines. She was an even fourth in a grass try last out, a race almost certainly designed as a belt-tightener. Getting back to her preferred surface, she definitely profiles as an upset candidate.
Race 5: Pan Zareta Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
The first of three stakes on the day features a field of fillies and mares sprinting on the grass. 8 Violent Times will get the nod as the top pick in here, coming off a fifth-place finish in the Franklin County Stakes at Keeneland. She’s been in career-best form as of late, with an improving figure in each of her last four races. Even though her last race was visually unimpressive, this race represents a drop in class, and she won a high-class allowance at Saratoga over the summer that is likely similar to this one. Look for her to stalk the pace on the outside. 7 Quebec has been competitive all year long in two-turn stakes, now gets a cutback around one turn. Her figures have been at or within five points of the standard brisnet rating for this race, the longest streak in the field. She’s been tiring near the end of those longer races, so the shorter trek here should play into her hands. 4 Ruby Trust engages as a possible longshot play. She’s the clear cut early speed of the race, so she could run them off their feet at long odds. 10 Play On also has speed from the outside, and almost won a stakes last out on the lead. That was her first start off a six-month layoff, trainer Cox is 29% second off the bench.
Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, LA-bred, 6 Furlongs
4 Bertie’s Galaxy impressed in his first start off a layoff last out, with a bold sweep to victory. That was against n/w1x LA-bred company; now he’s stepping up to this level for the first time. He’s never lost at it, so the “proven loser” anti-angle does not come into play here. In contrast to Bertie’s Galaxy, who has only raced six times, 8 Where Y’at Joe Joe has 47 starts to his name. He’s jumping up in class off a win against LA-bred claimers last out, but it was a big one: he pressed the pace, then moved on the turn and won by 3 3/4 lengths, earning a brisnet figure of 87. He’s been at or near the figure par in each of his last five races, minor a race at Delta Downs where he had a bad break. Perhaps most importantly, he goes first off the claim for Karl Broberg, who hits at 29% with recent claims. 11 Big Bella Brown was sent off as the favorite at the level last out, but flattened out. He’s declined a bit since the start of the year, but might have enough class to get the job done regardless.
Race 7: Pago Hop Stakes, 3yo, Fillies, 1 Mile (Grass)
Thirteen three-year-old fillies will head to the gate to begin the late pick 4. 4 Winning Envelope and 5 Dalika both exit the Mrs. Revere Stakes at Churchill Downs. The former was hung wide most of the way, and flattened out late to finish fifth. She’s been in steady form all year, and is a deep closer who will need to avoid trouble to have a shot. The latter battled down the stretch and lost by a head to Nay Lady Lady, with a career-best mark of 94. She’s improved her figure in each of her last four races, suggesting that she’s coming into form in the right time. Miguel Mena, who rode her to victory at CD back in June, jumps back aboard. In a race with lots of closing speed, she appeals as one with early punch. 2 Elle’s Town appeals as a longshot, stretching out in distance from six furlongs. She’s got a strong closing kick that does not get to shine in those short races. I’m interested to see how she does going longer. Blinkers on helps the cause. 10 Isla Road ships from Florida off a half-length defeat in the Cellar Shiraz Stakes. This lightly-raced filly didn’t debut until May 18 of this year, and has never won grass. Still, she turned in a good account of herself first time on the green, and ran a sharp figure of 89 in that last race. 11 Zofelle also came from behind to win an allowance at Fair Grounds back on December 5. She’s 2-for-2 since coming from England in June. Look for her to also be packing a punch late.
Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 6 Furlongs
Lots of the attention in this full field will likely go to 5 Airstream, a half-brother to the great Rachel Alexandra. Any Asmussen/Santana two-year-old is dangerous, but considering there’s a few in here who have already proven themselves in a race, I would cool the jets a bit on Airstream. 9 Digital was well-backed on debut, but hung in the stretch. It was at Churchill Downs, a track where horses have trouble passing in the stretch. Considering how much attention this $260,000 purchase attracted in his first race, a lot of people must think he can run. I’m willing to give him another chance. 12 Fair Catch got the worst of the post draw, coming off his debut, where he drew post one and finished second by 3/4 of a length after setting the pace. His workouts since that November 29 outing have been sharp. I’m intrigued.
Race 9: Woodchopper Stakes, 3yo, 1 Mile (Grass)
Joe Wulffe takes an extensive look at the race here:
http://thedailygallop.net/race-of-the-week-woodchopper-stakes-saturday-december-28-2019-by-joe-wulffe/
Race 10: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, LA-bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs
A largely inscrutable field of Louisiana breds brings us home. I’ll try a longshot here, in the 2 Blue Choice. He was in good form over the summer at Louisiana Downs, including a win against open company where he ran a year-best figure of 83. He’ll make his first start since mid-September, but if he can run back to his old form, he’s in good shape. 12 Allthewaywithtaye has won two in a row against much cheaper at Delta Downs, now comes in for the Karl Broberg barn. He’s got enough natural ability to win it, but this will be a major class test. 13 Miracle Master won three in a row over the big track at Louisiana earlier in the year, but struggled more over the bullring of Delta. He should improve going back to a mile strip.