Gulfstream Park 01-03-2020
It’s a new year everyone! May you all have a successful year at the betting windows!
RACE 1: Maiden special weight $43,000, 5 furlongs, turf
A tough one to handicap. #1 LA CARA BONITA looks intriguing. Ridden by top jock Luis Saez and placed ITM in all three of her races. Her Beyers are consistent (60-60-61) and they are among the highest in this field. The trainer Efren Loza is hot at turf sprints too (6 .17 AVG ROI $0.67). #2 IM THIRSTY TOO gets a big jock change from C. Torres to Jose Ortiz and trainer Mark Casse does well with turf sprinters (133 .19 AVG. ROI $1.88). The trainer-jockey winning percentage is good too (20 .15 AVG. ROI $0.87). Then you have #6 OUR FANTASY. Trainer Kathleen O’Connell is a turf specialist (22 5 .23 ITM% .50) and her horse threw in a bullet workout on Dec. 18 as well. #9 TARA is an odd duck. Didn’t fare well in last race against lesser company (Nov. 3 MSW $40K, seventh place) but placed ITM in a $400K restricted stakes race, getting a Beyer of 64. Filly almost won with today’s jockey Rajiv Maragh (second place in August).
Picks: 1-2-6-9
RACE 2: Optional claimer $16,000/N1X, one mile, dirt
#2 GRAY BEAU looks like the best in the field. Gelding has the best Beyers in the field, was ITM in his last 4 races (4-3-3-2) and ran an 84 Beyer at GP at this distance on Aug. 8. He also had a bullet workout on Dec. 18. Keeping up with him will be #3 UNDAUNTED. Colt broke his maiden on Sept. 26 here at GP and jockey Irad Ortiz gets the call. Doesn’t have the speed like GRAY BEAU but has the potential to upset. #4 FIRST AND THREE is my other choice. I think this colt may go off at nicer prices because of his last race against similar company as today’s (placed 7th) but won two back at this distance in the slop against $35,000. Worth a look.
Picks: 2-4-3
RACE 3: Maiden claiming $16,000, one mile, turf
#1 BACANO is the 2-1 favorite. Ridden by Irad Ortiz and trained by Antonio Sano (52 4 7 6 .08 at GP), BACANO placed ITM in his last three races (3-2-2) and has Beyers in the 40s range, close to the Beyer par for this race. #4 KING OF RANCH looks intriguing. This colt ran a 50 Beyer last time out against tougher company (Md 25,000) and bumps back down to (Md 16,000). Trainer Amador Sanchez has an interesting stat – he’s 22 .23 AVG. ROI $2.58 on stretchouts (sprint-to-route). He’s also going off at 12-1! #8 JEFE GRANDE ran two solid races with 40+ Beyers and gets jockey Paco Lopez aboard (107 22 16 8 .21). He’ll be hard to beat.
Picks: 8-1-4
RACE 4: Claiming $12,500, six furlongs, dirt
#5 LET’S RUMBEL looks like the one to beat. Ran a 55 and 54 Beyer in the last two out of three races (you can throw out the last race). Lopez rides again and trainer Gilberto Zerpa is having a good meet (14 3 1 2 .21). Morning line odds are 9-2 as well. Not bad for a small field. Other horses to consider are #6 BAZOO (8-1-2) and ran a 56 and 58 Beyer two and three races ago) and #1 POWER PUNCH who also ran three 50+ Beyers in his last four races.
Picks: 1-5-6
RACE 5: Maiden claiming $50,000, one mile, turf
There could be some nice payoffs in this race. #10 MONEY NEVER SLEEPS is a Todd Pletcher horse and his favorite jockey John Velazquez is in the irons (trainer-jockey cobo is 126 .32 AVG. ROI $2.23). Almost won last time out against similar company and recorded a 64 Beyer. Right next to her will be #9 CHOUCHOU DE BOO. This filly belongs to trainer Thomas Bush who’s known for big upsets and big payoffs. She’ll be going off at 8-1 and hot GP jockey Emisael Jaramillo will be riding. #6 ELUSIVE MOLLY should be in the mix too. She’s got Jose Ortiz riding in the irons and two recent races with 60+ Beyers.
Picks: 9-6-10
RACE 6: Maiden claiming $12,500, one mile, dirt
Safest bet of the day is #1 KORCZAK. Going off at 6-5 and has the best Beyers of them all. Trainer Jorge Navaroo is having a spectacular meet (65 11 10 9 .17), Luis Saez will be riding and the trainer-jockey combo is 4-for-15 .27 .53 ITM in the last two GP meets. The trainer-owner combo is also a good play (6-for-18 .33 .67 ITM). #6 TRUMP’S KITTEN has run two races with 60+ Beyers but has been inconsistent. #7 SWEET GIANT will be right up there as well.
Picks: 1-7-6
RACE 7: Optional Claiming $35,000/Starter Allowance $35,000, one mile, turf
I’m gonna go with a longshot. #7 BABYEL had a tough trip last time out but she showed she can compete at this level. Broke her maiden in a $35,000 claimer and jockey Luca Panici rode that time. They reunite for this one and it’s worth consideration (morning line odds 8-1). I expect #8 RISING BELLA to be up there too. This filly is the one to beat. She has the top Beyers in the field and will be going with first time blinkers too. Trainer Anthony Pecoraro is (5 .20 AVG. ROI $0.60) with first time blinkers so that’s worth considering as well. I also like #4 PATTY HEANEY. Trainer Ralph Nicks is having a huge meet right now at GP (30 8 7 3 .27). PATTY HEANEY broke her maiden against tougher company (Maiden $50,000) so she’s well placed here as well (morning line odds 4-1).
Picks: 7-8-4
RACE 8: Claiming $30,000, 6 furlongs, dirt
Hard to handicap this one. #2 NITE BRITE looks like the best of this field. She won twice at this distance and recorded a 72 Beyer last time out at TAM. Never raced at GP though. But trainer Darian Rodriguez has been solid this year. Check out these stats: 2Off45-180 12 .33 $1.90; Won Last Start 40 .35 $2.41;, Dirt 37 .27 $2.38;, Sprint 56 .32 $2.25; and claim 96 .33 $1.88. #5 GRAN BRANDY placed second in a September stakes race and was bumped at the start last time out. I expect her to rebound here. I also like #6 WORDS OF DIVINE. Trained by Steve Klesaris and ridden by Irad Ortiz and going off at odds of 5-2. Filly placed ITM in all three of her races as well. Worth a look.
Picks: 2-6-5
RACE 9: Allowance $51,000N1X, five furlongs, turf
Today’s main event. I’m going with #3 MISS MIAMI. Filly placed ITM in last four races and won her last three. Steve Klesaris is one of the best trainers in GP allowance races (24 10 .42 ITM .58). He’s won two raced for this outfit in the last two years and jockey Julien Leparoux, in the last two meets, is 2-for-3 with a .67 winning clip and .100 ITM. #4 DREAMS ARE MADE and #7 PAYNTDEMBLUESAWAYwill be up there as well.
Picks: 3-4-7
RACE 10: Maiden $16,000, one mile, turf
Picks 1-3-8