Happy TVG Pacific Classic weekend to all! This Thursday’s card is the calm before the storm, as we have 5 graded stakes carded for Saturday with a mandatory jackpot Pick 6 payout. For those looking to get in on the action early, we have a pretty decent card of 7 races tonight. After a hot start to the meet, last week we hit a bump in the road and cooled off a bit. A few top picks scratched and a few others ran a close second, so let’s right the ship with some winners this evening!
Last week: 14% (1/7 win, 4/7 ITM) $0.85 ROI per $2 win bet ($14 wagered, $6.00 returned)
Del Mar 2019: 52% (11/21 win, 15/21 ITM) $3.14 ROI per $2 win bet ($42 wagered, $66.00 returned)
Race 1: 1 Mile. [F] Clm 8000
Picks: 3-7-1-2
We start the day with a trickier than it appears $8,000 claiming race where a number of today’s runners are exiting the same race on July 26. The surprising top choice here is #3 Forbidden Command. This 7-year-old mare was winning with ease at this level in early 2018 but was forced to miss significant time for an unknown reason. She’s ran in 3 sprints in her first 3 races back from the layoff, with improving speed figures in each, and now goes to a distance that she has thrived at in her career (17-6-4-1). Don’t read too much into the July 26th race, as every horse near the lead faded badly in that race that was dominated by late running closers. In a field such as this with a lack of any real standout, I’ll take a swing with a price horse and proven ability who is likely to step forward in her fourth start off the bench. #7 Topaz Time is a horse on a bit of a zig zag pattern, firing strong races following by duds for her last 8 races now. Her last was a very poor effort, so one could surmise she’s due to pop here today. She seems to really do her best running on the lead, and I expect her to be the controlling speed as she stretches back out to a mile, where she is 2 for 2 lifetime. Goes out for Pearson first off the claim, but does seem to run her best 80 miles to the north at Los Alamitos, where she is 2 for 2 but 0-6 lifetime at Del Mar. A pace player at the least. #1 Empress of Lov figures to take money after losing a brutal photo at this level 3 weeks ago. However, she inherited a dream rail-skimming trip that day, saving all the ground and looking every bit a winner only to get caught late. Now she stretches out to a two turn mile when she came home in a rather pedestrian 322/5 seconds for the last 2.5f of her sprint, and I’m really not sure she is best going this far. The rail has been 1/19 so far this meet, and Dollase is has been cold, only 5% on the year. At a short price with a number of factors against, I’ll likely try to get around her.
Race 2: 11/8 Mile (Turf) Clm 32000
Picks: 1-3-6-4
Race 2 provides us with a compact yet competitive field of 6, all of whom are getting some kind of class relief. #1 Snazzy Dresser enters this race as the clear pacesetter and the top choice. He set a blistering pace last out, opening up 3 lengths on the field by the first call, only to fade late. Two races back he was only beaten 2.5 lengths in a Grade 3 to stakes winners Majestic Eagle, LawAbidingCitizen, and Sharp Samurai. He already owns a win over this course and at this distance, and gets a rider change to the underrated Gutierrez. There is other speed here, but one has to think he will clear and could be dangerous if left alone out front. #3 Calle Kingpin enters this race off back to back scores over arguably stronger competition. It is largely for that reason that I can’t feel very comfortable using him in the top position. He got away with an incredibly easy lead on a slow pace last out, a situation highly unlikely here due to the presence of Snazzy Dresser. After consecutive scores for higher purses, one would have anticipated a move up the class ladder, not down. If he’s fit he’s likely to win, and perhaps it’s just the trainer being savvy, but the red flags are there. #6 Erotic picks up leading rider Prat, the pilot aboard for both of his career victories. This gelding does not have much at all in terms of early foot, so he could be a bit pace compromised. He showed signs of regression in his last effort, his first race since leaving the strong Mandella barn and going to Carava. Perhaps reuniting with Prat makes the difference. Would be significantly benefitted by a hot pace developing up front. #4 He Will is the next selection. If Snazzy Dresser can’t wire them, he should at least set an honest pace, something that He Will did not get last out when futilely chasing the leader who set a glacial pace of 51.1 to the half going 9f. Smith sticks, who is surprisingly only 1/18 on dirt but 4/11 on the turf so far this meet. Loads of back class, but going 0-6 without ever hitting the board at this distance suggests that last furlong could just be asking too much.
Race 3: 1 Mile Alw 50000s
Picks: 5-6-4-2
#5 Secret Courier enters this race with a very realistic chance to be the lone speed in the field. He was never a threat to runaway winner Julius, but still was nearly 3 clear of the show horse after setting a moderately quick pace. Projects to be the one to catch, and could be difficult to run down if given soft fractions. #6 Tidal Effect just missed at this level last out, although that was back in November of 2018. New barn since then, and Yakteen is a strong 28% off the 90+ day layoff this year. Leading dirt rider Fuentes takes the mount, and he should have this one in a good outside stalking position turning for home. With only 1 win from 11 starts but settling for 4 second place finishes, he’s a must-use in the bottom of exotics at worst. #4 Unbroken Star was the length winner of his debut race, but go back and watch the race and you’ll see how much the best he really was. Off a bit slow, he was under a drive for half a mile and came from last, looped the entire field very wide, and won while going away. That experience will prove vital, as he now takes the massive step up to face winners for the first time. Questionable quality of field in his maiden race, so he needs a cleaner break and to get involved earlier but definitely appears to have some ability. Talamo sticks despite the barn change, always a positive sign. #2 Blame it on Kitty tries dirt for the first time. Lots of turf in the pedigree, it’s interesting they decide to switch surfaces. Dollase is an impressive 32% with a $3.07 ROI when switching from synthetic to dirt over the last 5 years., but only 1 for his last 8 this year. Not much speed in this race, and he appears to need some help in front of him, but wouldn’t be impossible.
Race 4: 5 Furlongs (Turf) [F]Mdn 61k
Picks: 9AE-12AE-11AE-10AE ; if no scratches: 2-8-1-7
This is an extremely tough race to analyze without having scratches, as arguably all of the top 4 selections are currently sitting as Also Eligibles waiting to draw in. It is incredibly unlikely that all 4 draw in, so I’ll provide a brief preference on the AEs before diving into the main entries. 33% of Del Mar turf sprints have been won in gate to wire fashion this meet, and 83% of winners have been within 3 lengths at the first call. Speed is king at this distance, which makes #9 Miss Stormy D the top pick. The far outside draw should allow her to avoid any traffic, and she should have the speed necessary to clear this field and cross over. Second off the layoff and getting first time Lasix, she looms a major threat. #12 Taylor and Burton is unlikely to draw in, but if she does she must be used. Flashed speed last out and was a game second despite the year layoff. Second off the bench here, this daughter of Pioneer of the Nile should thrive on grass, although 2 turns may be in her future. #11 Cellar Door and #10 Mischiffie would be the next selections, but their lack of early speed could place them at a disadvantage here from the far outside posts. Assuming no scratches, #2 Be a Shero is the pick. Jimmy Creed offspring do very well sprinting on the lawn. Connections thought highly enough to try her in a juvenile turf stakes race where she was in way over her head, and then wheeled her back to run a respectable 5th beaten 2 lengths when sent off at odds of 50-1. You won’t catch that price on her today. Hasn’t been seen since October, but her top race as a 2-year-old is probably good enough to win this. It is certainly fair to project improvement for a horse from October of their 2-year-old season to August of their 3-year-old season, so if she’s fit she looms a major threat. Biggest challenge for her could be her late running style against the bias of this course and distance. #8 Tinnie is the most promising of all the first-time starters. Mandella does decent with debut runners, a number that is boosted when filtered down to debut runners on turf. Tinnie is a full sibling to Passionate Reward, a runner who won her debut sprinting down the hill on the Santa Anita turf, with the same owner, trainer, and rider as we have here today. #1 Road Rager has very real potential to wire this field if no other speed draws in, but I’m not certain turf is her preferred surface (0 turf winners from 7 siblings) and working out a trip from the rail could be tricky. Usable if there are no scratches.
Race 5: 5½ Furlongs. [F]MC 62500
Picks: 4-8-6-5
#4 Biddy Duke, out of hot freshman sire Bayern, is the deserving favorite here. Only out of the money once from 4 tries, she possesses very quick early foot but has had some trouble finishing races. 42% of juvenile filly races at 5.5f have been won wire to wire, and all but one winner was within 2 lengths of the lead. Early speed is vital in races like this, an advantage she has over the rest of this field. Recently sent to Hess, the trainer upgrade is rather massive as she switches from the 3% Ennis barn to the red-hot Hess barn firing at 32% this meet. The one to beat, especially on the class drop to maiden claiming and electing to take the weight break for a $55k tag. #8 Musically projects to be the other speed in a race typically dominated by front runners. She showed lots of promise in her debut, but was still sent off at 8-1 in her next race and disappointed, running next to last by 16 lengths. Perhaps she didn’t like the blinkers that day. Hood comes off here which has been a move Meah has had a bit of success with in the past. Expect Maldando to send her hard from the outside post and see if she can keep up. #6 Lady Agatha is an interesting flyer on a first-time starter. Warriors Reward offspring win at 12% at first asking, and 2 of 5 siblings won as two-year olds. Trainer is a relative unknown but is 1 for 3 with juvenile debut runners and gets attracts Fuentes. Watch the tote on this one. #5 Leucothea was bothered into the lane in her debut, and now comes into this race off of a series of strong workouts. Adds Lasix and gets one of the leading riders of the meet for the co-leading trainer.
Race 6: 1 Mile (Turf) [F][S]OC 20000n1x
Picks: 4-3-5-7
The sixth race of the day appears loaded with front runners, as there are at least 4 horses projected to be vying for the lead. The main contender is #3 Shehastheritestuff. She dealt with a disadvantageous draw breaking from the 2-hole last race, as the inside 2 posts are a combined 2/60 so far going a mile on the turf, and she was only beaten a neck by Sedamar. If Sedamar is the quick developing 3-year-old, Shehastheritestuff is the salty veteran with plenty of back class and making her second start for leading trainer Doug O’Neill. She projects to get a great stalking trip into a hot pace, and a repeat of her last effort likely gets it done here. #4 Sedamar also should sit an excellent trip, possessing enough tactical speed to stay within striking distance and getting first jump on some of the deeper closers. She just missed at this level last out, and it’s encouraging to see Fuentes stay on board. She also had a tough draw on the rail, so running a close second to a strong horse in Opus Won last out is a better effort than it may appear. At 2-1-1-0 at Del Mar lifetime, she figures one of the two main contenders. The main drawback is Fuentes; for as good as he’s been on the dirt, he is winless from 35 starts so far on the Del Mar turf. Top two choices are nearly interchangeable in this spot. Tough to love anyone after the first two selections, but #7 Lil Bit Dangerous owns speed figures that would make her competitive in this spot and gets Hall of Fame jockey Espinoza on board. Should get an honest pace to run at, but a win would be surprising. #5 Super Bunny has the right connections for this race and owns a win over the track. Facing winners for the first time is never easy, and she’ll need to learn to rate as it’s unlikely she makes the lead here, but she’s improving and figures at least somewhat logical.
Race 7: 5½Furlongs. [F][S]Mdn 61k
Picks: 7-10-3-9
We end the card with a juvenile filly sprint race for maiden special weights. As mentioned earlier, speed rules these races, so #7 Liberalism appears strong given her early speed and the other unknowns in this race. Koriner hits at 31% this year with horses making their second start, and this daughter of Broken Vow has not shown any signs of slowing down in the mornings since that debut effort. #10 I want One is a close second choice, as she is the other horse entered here possessing some early speed. She actually set faster fractions than Liberalism on the same track and same day only one race prior (22.1 and 46.3 vs 22.1 and 47.0) while needing to go an extra sixteenth of a mile. The effort clearly impressed ERJ Racing and Andrew Lerner enough to move her into special weight company and not risk losing her for a tag. Her works in the morning have been somewhat quirky, but she remains a logical contender. #3 Navy Queen was far from embarrassed in her debut despite being sent off at odds of 35-1. She showed an ability to pass horses despite being hung 3 wide most of the trip. Dam has produced 9 winners from 10 starters, including 6 juvenile winners. Likely to get overlooked due to connections, she could be dangerous at a decent price. #9 Flying Business is the most interesting of a dull collection of first-time starters. Baze gets up, and he used to be one of the better riders on the west coast prior to moving his tack east. This filly is a half sibling to graded stakes placed Streak of Luck, also owned by the Roncelli Family Trust. Streak of Luck did win as a 2-year-old on the dirt, but she did most of her damage on turf. I get the feeling this granddaughter of Unusual Heat may do her best running on the green stuff as well.