Race 1
#7 Ruler of the Nile
This colt is exciting MUCH tougher races. He spent the summer at the Spa, and he did not embarrass himself. This race is a great placement for him to potentially pick up a win without the risk of him getting claimed. He draws outside and should be able to get a nice stalking trip with Jon Court in the saddle. This horse is also 2 for 2 at Churchill, so he likes it here.
#6 Pat Daddy
This gelding has spent a lot of time in the winners circle this year. Six wins in seven starts. He figures to be forwardly placed in here. Ever since they switched him to dirt, he has excelled. He’s also in a high percentage barn with Norman McKnight, so you can never discount their chances. David Cohen in the irons.
#1 Krsto Skye
This 7 year old will be making his first start for his new trainer Bob Hess. This horse has had an effective year, hitting the board in all four starts. He was very impressive last time out at Los Al, drawing away to win by five lengths. He gets the red hot Julien Leparoux to ride him today. Julien is 5 for 10 so far at the young meet.
Race 2
#1 Riverboat Gambler
This was an extremely difficult race for me to try to navigate. This looks like a wide open race. I settled on this guy mainly because of the trainer switch. He ran some pretty good races last year and now moves into a high percentage barn. Thomas Drury is about 20% with horses first time out for him, and he’s 38% with horses off a lengthy layoff. So I expect this guy to be ready to run today. He draws inside and has some speed, so I’d expect him to be forwardly placed. Brian Hernandez in the saddle.
#5 Encinitas
Brian Lynch sends out this 4YO gelding. He’s had a pretty consistent 2019, his last race was not great, but he had a tough post and still finished okay. He’s proven that he likes Churchill, having hit the board in all three starts. He projects to be one of the closers in this race. Tyler Gaffalione will ride.
#2 Baringer Spring
I originally wasn’t going to use any of the first time starters in this race, but I cannot ignore this work pattern. Trainer Wayne Catalano can hit with a firster, and the pedigree should be fine for winning early. Joe Rocco will be the pilot for this one.
Race 3
#8 Frost Or Frippery
This gelding will be making career start number 50. His pp’s suggest that he probably prefers a synthetic surface, but he has run alright on dirt before as well. He’ll probably come from a little off the pace today, and he draws a nice outside post. Chris Hartman trains and Corey Lanerie rides. When they team up they hit at about a 40% rate.
#4 Got My Mo
This horse is new into the barn of Robertino Diodoro. He gets 26% winners with horses first time in his care. This horse is 3 for 3 this year, and he looks to be the speed of this race. I would expect him to be in front when they turn for home, and we’ll see how far he can take them. Diodoro gets his main rider David Cohen for this one.
#5 Ransack
This guy has been pretty consistent lately. He looks to fit quite well at this level. He should get a nice stalking trip in here behind the speed, and Calvin Borel is riding so you know he’ll be looking for a rail skimming ride in the stretch.
Race 4
#11 Turtle Trax
I’m going to take a little shot with this first time starter for trainer Ian Wilkes. Wilkes only hits with about 6% of his debut runners, but this horse has some pretty quick works. The post position isn’t great here today, but hopefully Tyler Baze can get her out of the gate in good order and get a good position. Even if you don’t like this one as a win candidate, she is definitely worth using in the exotics.
#9 Dancing Destroyer
This filly is one of the few in here with racing experience. She showed good speed in her debut and held on for third day. Trainer Norm Casse is 21% with 2nd time starters, so I expect this horse to show another good effort. Unless one of the first time starters in this race is a real rocket ship, I expect this horse to be front in the early going. Julien Leparoux has the mount.
#6 Goulding
This horse mainly intrigues me with the pedigree. Her sire Daredevil was pretty speedy as a youngster. And this girl was purchased for $150,000 even though Daredevil only stands for $7,500. This horse also has a couple quick workouts. Admittedly, I am unfamiliar with trainer Joe Petalino. Jon Court will be in the irons.
Race 5
#4 Tricky Tune
I think this horse comes out of the toughest last race. She raced at Saratoga and did not embarrass herself. This will be her second start for trainer Tom Amoss, and as I’ve mentioned in previous write ups, that’s an angle that I like. This horse has good positional speed and a good post position, so I’m thinking Channing Hill will be able to get her into a good spot early on. In a small sample size, Hill and Amoss win together at a 21% clip.
#7 It’s Complicated
First off the claim here for trainer Norm Casse. Casse is four of his last nine first off the claim. This horse is taking a fairly big jump in class today, but speed figures would suggest that this horse definitely fits with this group. She’ll be looking for an off the pace trip in here, so she’ll need some speed in front of her and a clean trip. Apprentice rider Declan Carroll will be the pilot.
#9 Breezy Bee
This filly has been facing some pretty tough company lately out in California. Trainer Keith Desormeaux ships this one in. I think this distance will be just right for her. She looks to be the strongest closer in this race, so I expect her to be rolling late. Even though I list her third in here, she’s a must use in all horizontal wagers. James Graham will ride.
Race 6
#8 Big Boss Lady
There are a lot of first time starters in this race, but this is the one I prefer. She’s got a good win early pedigree, and she has some strong works leading up to this race. Also, David Fawkes is a sneaking good trainer in these spots. Fawkes is 27% in maiden special weight races, plus 26% with his 2YOs. Gabriel Saez will get the call for this one.
#2 Joysome
This gray filly will be making her third career start. She’s raced once on grass and once in dirt. She was only beaten by a head in that dirt race, and she was well clear of the third place finisher that day. Experience can be very valuable in a spot like this, so this girl will be tough today. Brendan Walsh trains and Tyler Gaffalione rides.
#1 Hong Kong Helen
Another one with experience in here. This will be start number two for her. Her first race was on turf, and she showed a lot of speed. Since she draws the rail in this one, I expect her to gun out of there and try to get the lead again. The switch to dirt should not be an issue. Palace Malice on the top side of the pedigree and Distorted Humor on the bottom side. Steve Asmussen trains, while his main man Ricardo Santana will be in the irons.
Race 7
#3 Franknjymme
This colt is just one for 11 lifetime, but he’s run some races that would make him pretty tough in this spot. Draw a line through his turf races, he definitely prefers the main track. His race two back was a sharp effort, and that was his first time with blinkers. Now back on his preferred surface, I look for a good run from him. I think he’ll sit a midpack trip and being finishing well at the end. Julien Leparoux rides for trainer Charlie LoPresti.
#7 Can’t Hide From Me
This will be his first time on the dirt. If he transfers his synthetic form over to the dirt, he’s got a good shot in here. He finished second behind the nice horse Dabo last time at Arlington Park. This will be start number two for him in the Larry Rivelli barn. Rivelli is a high percentage trainer in pretty much every aspect. This horse has some speed and should be forwardly placed. Tyler Baze will be in the saddle.
#4 Winnipesaukee
This gray colt showed a lot of potential in his last start. He crushed a field of six other maidens at Ellis Park. That was his first time going a mile, and his first time wearing blinkers. I would expect him to be the pace setter, and if he makes another improvement today, he could be tough to beat. Brad Cox trains, and Shaun Bridgmohan rides. They hit at over a 30% strike rate together.
Race 8
#2 Third Edition
I’m hoping the blinkers going on will get this guy over the hump. He’s run some decent races in some difficult maiden races. Most of his races have actually been longer than today’s mile and an eighth distance, so distance and fitness is no concern. Julien Leparoux will get on this one for the first time, and I think he might fit this horse pretty well. Julien can be effective on a good closer.
#7 Reach the Moon
This debut runner is a Don Alberto homebred. The works look pretty good on paper. He’s also got a really nice pedigree, being by Tapit and out of a Galileo mare. Debuting at a mile and an eighth can be tricky, but trainer Brad Cox does just fine with these types, scoring about 21% of the time with debut routers. Shaun Bridgmohan will have the mount.
#1 Red Sorrell
This guy might be rounding into form. His last two races have been really solid, and he just got beat at the end in his last race. Fitness also is not a concern for this colt, and today’s distance should be perfect for him. He doesn’t have much early speed, but he draws inside so he might be able save some ground and make a run at the end. Tyler Gaffalione will be aboard.