We kick off 2019 at Aqueduct with a 9 race card, the feature being a road to the Kentucky Derby, the 150k Jerome Stakes going a mile on the main track. Let’s start the new year with a bang:
Race 1: 2-1-5
#2 Crimson Frost jumps up a bit in class but gets a drop in distance, should stalk a fast pace before closing with Junior Alvarado in the irons again. Linda Rice has a positive ROI sending last time winners. #1 Sounds Delicious is another Linda Rice trainee and one of three horses in this small field dropping from the Autumn Days stakes run here last month, don’t see any class edge and may push the pace a bit too much to win. #5 Jc’s Shooting Star also ran in the Autumn Days, not in the best form but is 8/15 ITM on a fast track, Manny Franco in the irons.
Race 2: pass
Race 3: 4-1-3 Value plays: 5 or 6
#4 Rose of Dublin drops back to a $30k tag for trainer James Ryerson that does better second off the claim. Junior Alvarado stays on for #1 Annette’s Humor who also drops down to $30k, and #3 Call it a truce exits a 3rd place finish with the top 2 winning next time out. This race could get interesting if the track is rated muddy or sloppy since none of those fillies handle a wet footing particularly well. If that’s the case, take a look at #6 Big Brown Cat that seems well suited for the distance or take a chance with first time starter #5 Ladyberg.
Race 4: 3-2-4
I’m taking a shot with 5-1 ML #3 Roaming Union, toss the last race and this Chestnut out of Union Rags is on good enough form and is capable of winning at this level. #2 Holiday Bonus drops back to this level after finishing fourth in a stakes race, won a $62.5k optional claimer at a mile 2 back. #4 Bronx Sandman sporting some great numbers for trainer Gary Capuano as he ships over from Laurel, note the blowout on December 17th.
Race 5: 1-7-6
#1 Passporttovictory opens the 6-5 ML favorite and gets an extra furlong that should help him rally from off the pace. #7 Scorpion Bowl in good form, gets Junior in the irons. #6 Carrera Cat also in good form and seems better suited as a dirt horse, ITM in all 3 dirt races.
Race 6: 7-6
If you want a longshot play, look no further than 15-1 ML #7 Papa Jim. I know betting on first time starters is always risky, but this horse has 2 very sharp workouts under his belt for trainer Jeremiah Englehart that is sneaky good with his first time starters and has been hot the last week going 15-5-0-1. #6 Stone Breaker opens the 5-2 ML favorite and seems like the logical play, so maybe an exacta box wouldn’t be a bad idea here.
Race 7: 3-1-5
#3 Fair Regis finished second last time out, should close with the extra distance in what should be a fast pace. #1 My Roxy Girl has been beaten by some of these horses in the past but is ⅚ ITM at this distance. #5 Ribbonite won her last race, likes to set the pace and then wire the field but don’t know if she can do that at this level.
Race 8- 150k Jerome Stakes: 6-3-4
#6 Souper Jackpot finished second in a black type stakes last time out, seems well suited for the distance and gets Junior in the irons. #3 Mind Control can be excused for his trip in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and won the Hopeful at Saratoga two back, Velazquez hops back on. #4 Our Braintrust ran well last time out and ran a bullet just a few days ago as he ships from Laurel.
Race 9: pass