Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight $45,000 for 3YO & Up
Sunday’s opening race features a field of 8 going 11/16 miles on the turf including 3 first time starters. Mike Stidham sends out the #2 Branco Maria who figures to improve off an even effort on the dirt in his only other start at Tampa Bay Downs back in May. This son of Candy Ride should relish running on the grass for the first time and Stidham has multiple positive 3 Year ROI angles with this move (1st grass 24% +0.17 / 1st route 25% +.03). The #8 Reconvene ships in from Gulfstream off a troubled trip where he was checked back at the start and well wide on both turns. Paco Lopez will try to work out a better trip from yet another outside post draw. Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables bring in #1 Pareto Optimal for his first start with Nik Juarez aboard. Considering the connections, the toteboard will likely tell the story on how competitive this horse figures to be.
2 – 8 – 1
Race 2 – Claiming $7,500 N3L for Fillies and Mares 3YO & Up
7 fillies are entered in the second race on the card, a 6-furlong sprint on the main track. #5 Knight Tales comes back for his 4-year-old debut and figures to have a sizable pace advantage here. With the lack of other early speed horses in the field, this one figures to be setting the fractions. The price is right to find out whether he can get loose on the front end. #4 JJ Loves Billy is back in the Patricia Farro barn and working well. He’s used to facing better horses and figures to work out a mid-pack trip. #1 Evan’s Nice Now is an interesting one running third off the layoff and drawing the rail. He was bumped hard at the top of the stretch last out at Delaware Park and showed some mild interest late in that 5.5-furlong sprint.
5 – 4 – 1
Race 3 – Allowance $47,500 N1X for Fillies and Mares 3YO & Up
8 fillies take to the grass for this 5-furlong turf sprint and I’m expecting an honest pace to develop with a few frontrunners signed on. The #6 Mo City tries grass for the first time under Mike Stidham and I think she could be the beneficiary of a hot pace scenario up front. She’s coming out of much tougher races and this could be the right spot for her to pick up a win. #5 Awsum Roar has been consistently competitive at a similar level on the Gulfstream circuit and figures to work out a good trip right in behind the early speed. I love the June 16th gate workout from the #2 Wildcattin, who has proven to run much better on the turf versus on the main track. He could be interesting from the inside post at 8:1.
6 – 5 – 1
Race 4 – Claiming $5,000 N3L for 3YO & Up
The 4th race pits a field of 10 against each other in a 6-furlong sprint on the main track and I like the #5 Brimstone 2nd off the layoff. He’s coming off a great 472 second 4-furlong workout on June 27th. He’s been racing against tougher competition in New York and trainer John Toscano hits at 21% / +0.73 ROI with this move (Down 2 classes). The #1 Monteleone is a deserving favorite based on speed figures alone and he looks to be cycling into form 3rd off the layoff. #7 Fun Prospect could get a good trip here in behind the frontrunners and is also used to facing tougher competition. Based on his connections I think he’ll offer some sizable value come post time.
5 – 1 – 7
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming $12,500 for 3YO & Up Sunday’s 5th race is a 6-furlong sprint on the main track with 11 entered and I’m going with the #4 Wendigo. This colt has missed the break badly in both of his starts so far, but he returns to the Leopoldo Ortega barn where they continue to work him out of the gate. After losing 5 or 6 lengths at the start last out he finished only a length behind the morning line favorite in this race #8 WW Archie. WW Archie certainly has a chance here assuming he displays his customary early speed. I’m also interested in the #9 Look Out Jayce who goes out for Jeff Englehart whose strike rate is 25% when dropping his horses down 2+ classes.
4 – 9 – 8
Race 6 – Claiming $7,500 N2L for Fillies and Mares 3YO & Up
8 are set to go for the 6th, which is another 6-furlong sprint on the main track. I don’t love this field in general, but I am against #7 Elegant Rose who I believe will be favored come post time. This horse has really gone backwards since exiting the Jorge Navarro barn and she continues to work several ticks slower than a year ago when she was at the top of her form cycle. I’m going to take a stab with the #5 Foxy’s Edge. This is her first start as a 4-year-old and I believe she will be forwardly placed. The gate work on June 27th is a positive and Paco Lopez is normally aggressive in these situations. Jeff Englehart saddles #3 Tarallucci 2nd off the layoff and dropping down a few classes here. He’s sporting an impressive 32%-win percentage at Monmouth Park over the past year. The other horse I’m interested in is the #8 Risen Change for Tony Wilson. Wilson’s win percentage is only 4% in 2020, but he’s winning at 12% with claimers over the past 3 years. This filly has been facing tougher as of late and should be more competitive at this level.
5 – 3 – 8
Race 7 – Claiming $16,000 N2L for 3YO & Up
A field of 9 lines up for Sunday’s 7th race of the day, a 11/16 -mile contest on the grass. My top pick is #3 Indian Buzz who ran his best race ever last time out in his first attempt on the turf. He set fast fractions in that race at Tampa Bay Downs and still fought on gamely to the wire. He figures to be forwardly placed as does another horse I like here #2 Pretendant. This horse comes in having faced tougher company in his last few starts for trainer Derek Ryan, whose barn has been hot so far in 2020 (51% Top 3 placed). The other option here is #6 Boat’s A Rockin, who tries a route for the first time in this his third career start. Trainer Nick Caruso has a positive ROI with first time routers (+0.42) and this son of Red Rocks improved nearly 10 lengths last out while picking up a win on the grass.
3 – 2 – 6
Race 8 – Optional Claiming $16,000 for 3YO & Up
The 8th race on Sunday features 9 horses going 6 furlongs on the main track. My top pick is #7 Clench simply due to the connections. I always pay extra attention to Michael Dubb owned horses entered at Monmouth Park and especially in this case where Brad Cox is training. This horse has been working well, fits on speed figures, and should be forwardly placed. I’m also using the #6 Honorable Service who I believe could be the beneficiary of a contested pace up front. This horse is rounding into form and might get overlooked at the betting windows. The last horse I’m interested in here is the #1 Hauntedbythemusic who comes in off a nice second place finish in an allowance race at Delaware Park last month. I think he could sit the perfect garden trip here on the rail in behind the leaders and his recent workouts are vastly improved.
7 – 6 – 1
Race 9 – Claiming $12,500 for 3YO & Up
Sunday’s 9th draws a field of 10 going 11/16on the lawn. My top choice is the #10 Affluential who does his best running late. I think there are enough frontrunners here to drum up an honest pace and this gelded son of Paynter has been very competitive at this level over the last 2 seasons. His trainer Pat McBurney has a 3 year positive ROI (+0.81) on the turf. Jane Cibelli (25% second off the layoff) brings in #9 Mr. Discretionary, who may be the trip horse in this race. He ran a nice frontrunning race last out down at Gulfstream Park setting honest fractions with pressure from other horses and stayed on very stubbornly to the wire. He finished 6th, less than 1 length behind the winner in a blanket finish. #5 Summer Mischief ran probably his best race ever 2 weeks ago in a frontrunning score at Delaware Park. He’s my choice from the lead group, trained by Kelly Breen who wins 23% with last out winners and seemingly always has his horses ready to fire at his home track.
10 – 9 – 5
Race 10 – John J. Reilly Stakes $75,000 for 3YO & Up
Sunday’s feature race, the John J Reilly Stakes, draws a field of 10 highlighted by local fan favorite #8 Golden Brown. His best race last season came in his first start off the winter layoff and he picked up 3 wins in Monmouth Park non-graded stakes races over the course of the summer. I think he’s the most likely winner, but I’m also interested in 2 other horses that will likely offer better value. Kelly Breen’s #1 Royal Urn may be a little closer to the front today with the blinkers going on, a move Breen has a 27% success rate with over the past 3 years. There’s enough early speed in this race for this off-pace runner to take advantage of. The other horse I like here is the #5 Prendimi who returns to the barn of Luis Caraval Jr. off of a dismal performance in the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes at Belmont Park last month. He won last year’s JJ Reilly Stakes at odds of 26:1 and figures to improve turning back to a sprint and landing in a much softer spot here. This horse usually needs a race or 2 under him to cycle back to his top form and I think the barn change is a major positive. He could be in line for a good stalking trip near the front.
8 – 1 – 5