Aqueduct Racing Analysis — Saturday, December 19, 2020, by Ivan Lopez

1 – 6½ Furlongs. ™Mdn 80k Purse $80,000 (UP TO $13,920 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

2-5-4

It will be a very difficult task to beat Back Channel against a very weak group. The morning line of 2-5 tells how much of a single in the horizontal plays. Risk Model will be his closest pursuer, and if the favorite tales a turn for the worst, she will draw first blood.  The wild card here is Icanseeclearlynowm, whose debut run was at Woodbine over the synthetic track. Noda and Vargas is an interesting combo.

2 – 6½ Furlongs. ™‘Mdn 70k Purse $70,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

7-5-2

Get the Candy debuted over the grass and was in contention every step of the way from a very tough inside post. Now tries the dirt, but the group is not that good, so she should run well in here second time out. Blame It on Mary is the speedster in here. You can draw a line over her last race, now she is back vs her own sex. Vallarand is working lights out for her second race lifetime and Baker hits at a 28% rate doing so.

3 – 6 Furlongs. ™Alw 50000s Purse $55,000 (UP TO $9,570 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD

1-7-6

Invaluable has benn running against much better fillies and the cut back should benefit her. Blinkers off is an incognita. Halama is on an improving pattern and is now under the training of Hall of Famer Bill Mott. Should be prominent from the start. Quietude lost but just a length last time out vs. a very similar group. Any slight improvement and we can have a very nice upset.

4 – 6½ Furlongs. ™‘OC 40000n2x Purse $74,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

7-5-2

Awesome Debate keeps on the upswing and that outside post will enable her to be right at or near the lead. Vargas already won with her. Miss Jimmy is the one to beat, but pace is not on her favor. She is in top form and working daylights. Forever Changed hasn’t been running well, but drops to a level in which she should be competitive.

5 – 6 Furlongs. Mdn 80k Purse $80,000 (UP TO $13,920 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.

4-1-7

Inspiration Point debuts for Pletcher with works that suggest he is ready right off the bat. Hammered at almost 20X his stud’s fee. By George is by Into Mischief, sire that has been winning in bunches with his progeny. Trained by Christophe Clemet, can’t be overlooked. Bird Ruler is the best of the ones that have experience, can be a nice price, so gotta watch the board with this one.

6 – 6½ Furlongs. OC 62500n2x Purse $84,000 (UP TO $14,616 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

1/1A-9-3

Puzzling race to handicap. The entry compliments itself nicely. Chateau should be flying early, trying to impose a hot pace and helping his stable mate Clench to come flying late. Happy Farm is the one to beat judging by his races, but he is coming from the Servis barn, so a decline in form is very probable. Cost Basis is another one who can take advantage of an expected scorching pace.

7 – 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000 Purse $44,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

4-7-8

Morning line of 15-1 on Control Stake is just plain out wrong. If we draw a line to his last race, his races are very good in similar groups. The fact that connections are not that successful will maintain his price attractive. Vineyard Sound is the fastest here and has a three race winning streak. Drop is somewhat suspicious. Square Shooter has been popular at the claim box and steps up in class without winning, so connections are seeing something with him. Watch out here.

8 – 6 Furlongs. ™‘Alw 72000n1x Purse $72,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

11-4-8

Eloquent Speaker is also quick, and last time out she encountered a muddy track that maybe was to her demise. Comes back from almost a four month break and there is still upside potential here. Lune Lake has won five of his last six. It’s true that her wins have been at Finger Lakes, but pace wise, she is by far the quickest in here, and she knows how to win. Flush ran nicely at the start of her career in the dirt, and now returns from a more that a year layoff for Bill Mott. 8-1 seems attractive here.

9 – 1 1/8  Mile. QueensCoL100K Queens County S. Purse $100,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

5-4-2

Musical Hear and Backsideofthemoon battled out in their most recent, with the latter one coming out on top. Now Musical Heart is under the training of the very effective Rob Atras and maybe now can dictate the pace he wants. Backsideofthemoon is extremely consistent and is a natural at the nine panels trip. Mirinaque improved dramatically last time ina marathon type race, now cuts back to nine furlongs and further improvement is not out of the question.

10 – 7 Furlongs. ‘Clm 25000 Purse $50,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

5-2-11

Extremely difficult race to analyze to end the card. Just Right has won two straight vs similar company. Was claimed away from the Pletcher barn but her condition should be still the same for this race. Dark Money drops to a more suitable spot in his second after a short layoff and the six furlongs is a trip that has been good for him. Drops to this level for the first time since May of 2019. The veteran The Caretaker completes the selection, always needs some help upfront, and he should get it, as there is good speed here.

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