I have been submerged in an 0 for the last 16 slump over the last two Sundays at the Big A. Let’s rebound in a big way today, with eight races on tap and the Busanda serving as the feature.
1st race: – Maiden Claiming $50,000. For three year olds. Six furlongs
3-2-5
These maiden claimer races have me suffering from migraines. If you are playing horizontals, buy it and them go on to the next. I will go with First Degree (3) as my first option, dropping from maiden specials to this 50,000 claim for trainer Jonathan Thomas, who scores at 38% performing this drop. This horse ran against the likes of Shotski first time out, so by class is the obvious choice. Blinkers go off for him. Thin Spaces (2) is a first time starter with just average works, but in this group, you cant throw away a horse that was sold at just $2,500 and runs for almost 25 times that price. His trainer is Michael Catalano, not Wayne, but with that last name, some training talent should flow thru those veins. Cause I Said So (5) Has the best speed figures of this group, but these type of horses have not been doing good at all and trainer Michelle Nevin is 0 for 30 so far in this meet. I reiterate, but it if you can.
2nd race: Maiden Claiming $25,000. For fillies and mares, four year olds and upward. One Mile
3-6-1
When you analyze this race, you see that there is not a single filly that wants the lead out of the gate. So you need to pretty much guess what king of pace will develop here. I’ll go with one of the less experienced of the bunch, Lady Cat (3), who showed some interest in the late stages of her most recent after having a bad break. She is the one that still has some upside potential of this atrocious group. Two Graces (6) maybe inherits the lead by default, and as I always say, with these low quality horses, you don’t see lots of big late runs. Eighty Seven North (1) carries the best jockey of the race by far, and that is a big plus here. Lately she has been running better on turf, but this is an opportunity for her graduation that she cant miss. Another race in which the all button is not a bad idea at all.
3rd race: Starter Optional Claiming $50,000. For three year olds. One Mile
5-3-4
The half brother to two time Horse of the Year California Chrome, Fort Mc Henry (5), drops for a tag today after being practically eased as the even money favorite in a stakes race at Gulfstream. It sure doesn’t look well, but he has five works in preparation and has an enormous pace advantage in here. Jose Lezcano rides for Todd Pletcher. Glenn Likes Gin (3) broke his maiden versus claiming horses and now steps up in class, a definite sign of confidence. I think there is still room for improvement with him, watch out, he might light up the board. Forever Wicked (4) didn’t fire at all last time out, but before that ran against very nice horses like Chestertown and Price of Pharaohs, and his trainer protects him . He needs pace for his late run to be felt, don’t know if he will get it.
4th race: Claiming $25,000 NW2L. For fillies and mares, four year olds and upward. Six furlongs.
5-3-4
Teletype (5) gets a much better post now and that will allow Reylu Gutierrez to stalk conveniently and from mid race on, her late run should be felt. She has five works in preparation for this race and will be a very tough beat. Cairo Queen (3) changed barns , now is in the hands of trainer Joseph Lee, who immediately takes off the shades , and my opinion is that she performed better without them. She is the one that can take advantage of a suicidal pace and come flying late. Dylan Davis has been red hot this week. Moon Heist (4) is the speediest in here and if she can carve out slow fractions up front, she can wire this field.
5th race: Claiming $25,000. For four year olds and upward. One Mile.
5-1-3
Shadow Rider (5) returns back from close to seven months out in a group much softer than what he was facing in July. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez knows well how to play the claiming game, and with six works in preparation for this race, he looks tough in the come back. Manny Franco takes the assignment. Chief Know It All (1) is the horse to beat figure wise, and with four wins in a row, no question he needs to be considered a top contender here. The change of barns from Gargan to Miranda is definitely a cause for concern, but the horse is doing great and the fact that they run him for twice the price they pay for him denotes confidence. Autostrade (3) completes the trio, Beyers going in the right direction and also stepping up in class after a solid win about a month ago. Lezcano keeps riding him for trainer Linda Rice.
6th race: Allowance Optional Claimer $40,000. For fillies and mares, four year olds and upward. Six and a half furlongs.
3-7-1
Puffery (3) lost to the morning line choice two races ago after being part of a very hot pace in the mud. Now Alvarado can sit with her in a garden spot position and that last race is good enough to win in here. Hay Field (7) keeps winning races by slim margins, but wins, which is the main thing, and this is why she is still extremely popular at the claim box. Franco repeats with her and we will see her once again late in the stretch with her run. Prairie Fire (1) is the one that keeps improving with each and every race. The stakes are higher today, but she is in the best form of her life and we cant be surprised if she pulls it off once again.
7th race: The Busanda. For three year old fillies. A mile and an eighth.
6-1-4
Harvey’s Lil Goil (6) looks like a stand out in this race, after her dominant win in her main track debut. The only question mark will be how well she can negotiate the two turns, but I suspect she will have no trouble at all, being a daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Junior Alvarado and Bill Mott, always a potent combo, team up again with this filly, who looks primed to be a top candidate for the Kentucky Oaks. Water White (1) has the two turn experience already in her favor, in a much tougher scenario than this one. Looks to be the clear enemy for the favorite and if the top choice doesn’t fire for any reason, she is definitely the one to take a look. Persisto (4) will try to go wire to wire in this group, and if she can put some daylight, she can be dangerous. Dylan Davis is winning races in bunches lately.
8th race: Maiden Special Weight. For four year olds and upward. Six furlongs.
6-2-3Quickflash (6) had some problems at the start last time out, anyway was good enough for the place spot. Trainer Kimmel hits at a 26% clip 2nd time after the layoff and that last work signals readiness. Dylan Davis takes the call once again. Kingfish (2) takes a cutback in distance, and that only sprint that he has doesn’t tell all the story, and he had stout trouble out of the gate. Lezcano and Rice once more teaming up, and what a formidable team they are. Freudian Fate (3) completes the selection. He will have to improve on his last two races, in both of them losing to my favorite. Lets see what Manny Franco can do with him.