Colonial Downs Racing Analysis — Saturday, August 24, 2019, by Paul Hundley

Hello everyone and we’re already at the middle of the Colonial Downs 5 week, 15 day meet. Last week only/ on top winners, gonna try to do better this week. Another 10 race card and as usual, races 1 and 3 are Steeplechase races. Let’s dive into the card now. 


RACE 1(Steeplechase): 2-7-6


RACE 2: 4-8-1
4-NOT MY MONEY ran at the meet on opening day and beat half the field in a state bred MSW going one mile. Set the pace before tiring to 5th. Adds Blinkers today, shortens up and drops in for a tag, though I’m not sure you could actually consider this a ‘class drop’. Horacio Karamanos gets the mount for Ferris Allen and I fully expect these two to team up on a lot of winners from now til the end of the meet. Allen ; of last 14 MSW to MC. 8-Alleria is the logical choice in here as she has a pair of third place finishes at Laurel vs MSW. Arnaud Delacour is a ridiculous 43% last 35 starters with drop from MSW. Gave the nod to the 4 because I think the cutback with adding Blinkers will have her closer early on which I believe will make the difference. Still must respect Alleria. 1-Beantown Baby tries  grass  for first time and has been somewhat competitive vs MSW at Prairie Meadows. Could keep top choice honest up front early on. 


RACE 3: 4-5-1A


RACE 4: 8-1-12
8-LUCKY LOOKIN comes in from Indiana Grand off a runner up finish in his turf debut at a similar level to today’s $10K n2L. Gets Trevor McCarthy today and should be stalking the pace and pounce in the stretch. 1-Zipman has placed his last two vs much tougher and could be favored. First start for Jennifer Shannon and she’s just 1 for 79 this year. I’ll take my chance here betting against on top. Also with 7 seconds in 1; starts, you have to question whether Zipman has the desire to win when it counts late. 12-Jingle Bells was my top choice two weeks ago and led every step of the way except the final few, getting bailed at the wire in a heartbreaking beat. Breaking from outside today I’m not sure we see him go for the lead like last time. 


RACE 5: 2-6-3
2-GENERAL DIRECTION is possibly a bit of a reach here, but I do have reasons. Coming out of a MC $15K at Mountaineer last December in which he finished:rd in his debut on a sloppy track. The first and second place finishers came back to win next out. Making turf debut here, his sire Dominus a respectable 14% first time on turf. 6-Fellow ran 3rd last out at Mountaineer on turf in a MSW and gets Daniel Centeno aboard today. Should be close to early pace if not on the lead. Trainer Gerald Brooks has struggled at the meet so far but is 6 of last 12 MSW to MC. 3-English Knight showed nothing in debut at Charles Town 11 months ago in a MSW but gets turf here and is s FT gelding. Sire Justin Phillip is 15% first time on turf. 


RACE 6: 10-3-8
Field of 12 scheduled here for this $16K claimer with runners coming in having last raced from Colonial last out all the way to Del Mar. Going with the horse who’s in the best form, 10-MINISTER’S STRIKE, who has been first or second 4 of his last 5 races, including a win last out at today’s level. What makes this race even trickier to handicap is that it’s being run at 1 3/16 mile distance, which only a couple of runners have ever ran . MINISTER’S STRIKE has the strong duo of McCarthy and Jamie Ness. McCarthy has been the rider of this son of 2005 Virginia Derby Winner English Channel since Ness claimed him 6 starts back. 3-High Noon Raider comes in off a pair of 4th place finishes in $16K Starter Handicaps but won at that level 3 back. Last time in for a tag was 2nd, beaten a half length at today’s level. Will be coming hard in the stretch if at all. 8-Twentytwentyvision comes in from Southern California circuit and dropping in class from OC $40K. New trainer Teresa Connelly is 20% first start with/ but I’m gonna take s wait and see approach here. Thinking he made need a race on the East Coast to get fully acclimated. 6-Boppin Anda Weavin is worth mentioning because will probably be out on the early lead and has Chuck Lopez in the irons who has brought a few price horses home already this meet. 


RACE 7: 5-6-3
5-SOMEKINDOFMAGICIAN comes in from Saratoga and drops in class for Michael Trombetta. Granted he’s not in the best of form but I think class relief is just what he needs. Ran the highest Bris speed figure of anyone last out. Victor Carrasco rides today. 6-Rohrbacher is possibly the pacesetter here and has never been out of the money in 4 career starts, including last time out 4 months ago at Tampa where he scored an easy 6 length win in a $40K OC. Makes this spot all the more curious for a horse in such good form to be dropping in class. 3-Jag is another horse in great form, coming off a win in a $25K starter allowance race 9 days ago and has 9 straight in the money finishes, the last 5 for current Trainer Jamie Ness. 


RACE 8: 8-1-9
Very contentious MSW here with 3 sets of coupled entries! 8-HIGHTAILING is trying grass for the first time after his first 4 races on dirt. Trainer Shug McGaughey is 24% first turf and 25% dirt to turf. Was 2nd to Dunbar Road in 2nd career start. 1-Ledecka is making 4 career start. Was 4th of 10 last out at Belmont after starting career off with 2 straight in the money finishes at Laurel. Daniel Centeno has the mount. 9-Celestial Dream is making 3rd career start. Was 2nd last out vs similar at Laurel ahead of the 1A-Quickplay. This is Jockey Ashley Castrenze only mount today. 


RACE 9: 6-9-3
Another competitive field here for The Old Nelson Handicap, thinking with all the rain track has gotten will obviously be less than firm, which helps 6-DOTHAT DANCE, as he has ran his best races on softer turf. Case in point, last out ran a 98 Bris speed figure while finishing 2nd in a $16K starter handicap. Has been in the money 4 of the 5 races Phil Schoenthal has trained him. 9-Master Plan could be the favorite here and is coming in off a pair of Steeplechase races, one in which he was 3rd to Snap Decision. Blinkers back on and has a win and 2nd at the 11 3/16 mile distance. 3-Birdsnest Party is the other Schoenthal here and could be the early pacesetter. Has 3 straight in the money finishes and is 1st off the claim for Schoenthal(28%).


RACE 10:10-7-3-12

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