Belmont Park Racing Analysis — Sunday, September 29, 2019, by Ivan Lopez

Another solid Sunday Card at Belmont Park, with nine races and the Grade II Miss Grillo being the centerpiece of the program, conform the offer of NYRA for today. The Miss Grillo is separated for two year old fillies going a mile and one sixteenth on the Inner Turf and is on race 8. Let’s go quickly to the comments:

1st race: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) ™Clm 32000 Purse $55,000 (UP TO $9,570 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

#7 A Dixie Twister – Belmont specialist, winning five out of six here at Big Sandy and, coming from a very cozy outside post, she should be sitting in a garden spot position, just behind the #2, who should be the early leader. Both of these fillies are trained by Michael Micelli, so I don’t think they will be fighting with each other, and I don’t see much more speed signed in here. 

#1 Annie Rocks – Has experimented an improvement in form since being claimed by Gary Contessa.  Hat last race at Laurel is good enough to be right on the mix for the win in here, and now Joe Bravo, a very capable grass jockey, will take over the reins. Gets a good drop of class today and she will be dangerous in the stretch. 

#5 Bareeqa–She is taking a considerable cut back in distance, so she will be coming from the clouds to try to win. The key will be how closer to the pace Lezcano can place her without compromising her late run in the stretch. 

2nd race: 6 Furlongs. ‘Mdn 62k Purse $62,000 FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

#2 Freudian Fate –This horse has the look of a nice upset. Eric Cancel is a very aggressive rider of the gate, and, with the lack of the speed in here, I think he will be in a very favorable position from the start. The race that he comes from has held up well, with Colby winning a stakes race after. 

#1 Seven is Heaven –He is a very deserving morning line favorite, but also he is been having problems at the start, and horses develop bad habits, and this makes him a vulnerable favorite, much more after drawing the rail. Jose Ortiz will ride right back after riding him last time out.

#5 Hot Brown – First time starter by Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown that has shown some speed in his workouts. Kendrick Carmouche will be looking for the lead with him and might get it due to the scarcity of early foot in this bunch. 

3rd race: 1 1/16 Mile. ™Clm 25000n2L Purse $36,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.

#1 Pecan Pattie – In this very weak non winners of two group, she just needs to repeat any of her last races to win. Jose Ortiz should place her right in that first flight and should have more than enough for the win. Trainer Englehart looking to earn a quick $10,000 by dropping her. 

#6 Paynter Fest – He is coming from a runaway score at Monmouth, running up the score to a 20 length victory. She is taking a step up in class, but these horses are no world beaters, and with that race, she has the right to claim a good chance to repeat.

#5 Solitary Gem – He beat my favorite in April, but since then, has remained stagnant and hasn’t win in a long time. Lets see what Irad Ortiz can do with him, he definitely needs to get it up a notch or two, and no one better than Irad for achieving so.

4th race: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) MC 40000 Purse $41,000 (UP TO $7,134 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

#4 Duress – He takes a cut back in distance, but has the right jockey to overcome that in Jose Ortiz, maybe the best in positioning a horse out of the gate. Now trained by Tom Albertrani, if he comes out cleanly, he has the best chance against this group.

#1 Red Mule – Has been the favorite twice now in groups similar to tis one, so it is dangerous to rely on him. Was claimed by Rob Atras, whose numbers in the 2nd with trainer stats are extremely impressive. Franco prefers him over my favorite, lets see is he finally can stay the course, with an additional furlong to negotiate. 

# 5 Mr. Mike – Returning from a six month break, comes to this race with lots of changes in him; he was gelded, drops from maiden special weight and moved from Louisiana to New York. Works have been good, and he apparently has enough class to do well here. 

5th race: 6½ Furlongs. ™‘Alw 66000n1x Purse $66,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

#8 Bank Examiner – She is making a comeback from four months on the shelf, just after winning her maiden. Names like Newly Minted and Ratajowski are in her past performances, so there was quality in the fields she faced. Junior Alvarado returns to her saddle and that outside post is perfect for the six and a half furlong trip.

#2 Bustin Scones – She has shown improvement with each new race, after her debut in a maiden claimers race. She flew late in her most recent race, after being bumped twice and the relative quick turn around makes me think she is ready to fire once again. 

#4 It’s a Chance – Very promising debut back in May, then followed that up with a disappointing effort. Trainer Patrick Quick gave her almost three months to freshen her up and seems to be the controlling speed of the group. Expecting a rebound performance from her. 

6th race: 6 Furlongs. (Inner Turf) ™‘Mdn 62k Purse $62,000 INNER TURF FOR MAIDENS,

FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK

STATE

#1 Freddymo Factor – Comes from a difficult post, but she still has room to improve this one being only her third lifetime start, and now will sport blinkers for the first time. Last time out she attended the pace and was beaten less than four lengths for all the marbles. 

#11 Cory Scores – With all the speed signed in, I think Irad will look to bring her from mid pack to try to make that late run that will take him to score with Cory Scores.  Being trained by Chad Brown, most probably will take all the money in the windows. 

#6 Lough Na Mona – With plenty of early zip in here, the race sets up nice for this filly, who is taking a cut back in distance and should have plenty of stamina to wear them down late in the stretch. Joel Rosario, one of the best turf sprint jockeys in the US, returns to her saddle for trainer Christophe Clement.

7th race: 1 1/16 Mile. OC 62500n2x Purse $80,000 (UP TO $13,920 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE

YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

#2 Grumps Little Tots – Has a definite pace advantage over this bunch and has shown he can win at the two turn variety. I expect  Jose Lezcano to send him right for the lead and, at a trip he likes and with lil speed to contend with, he will be a tough cookie to chew.

#4 Performer – Has two wins in three lifetime races, but he is yet to run farther than six and a half furlongs. He shows great promise and Shug Mc. Gaughey has taken a very conservative approach with this colt, and if he answers the two turn question affirmatively, he will be a force to contend with in 2020. 

#1 Mihos – Very nice colt, a stakes winner already, and now he is in a much more suitable group. He has been running with the likes of Code of Honor, Tax and Tacitus, and not anyone of those is here. Let’s see how well he comes back from two months in the bench.

8th race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) ™MsGrillo-G2 Miss Grillo S. Grade II. Purse $200,000 INNER

TURF FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD.

#4 Crystalle – This filly has come first in his only two starts, on the first one she was the victim of a very poor decision of the stewards. She made amends in the P G Johnson after spotting the field arounf two lengths, coming flying late in the stretch. Joel Rosario takes the reins once again and she is the filly to beat.

#3 My Sassy Sarah – Showed a very nice turn of foot in her bow run, leaving the impression that there is more in the tank than what we saw that day. She should be part of the first flight and if she can negotiate the extra distance, she will be right on the thick of it. 

#6 Sparking Sky – Easy win last time out as the even money favorite, she was one of the fillies with trouble in that Crystalle disqualification race. Showed affinity for the two turn trip and Ortiz should place her in a good stalking position from the gitgo. 

9th race: 7 Furlongs. (Turf) MC 40000 Purse $41,000 (UP TO $7,134 NYSBFOA) FOR

MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD

#8 What’s to Blame – In his return from a three month hiatus, he ran ok, albeit some trouble with a fallen horse. I think trainer Clement gave that race to him as a bolt tightener for this one, and the quick return to the track indicates he is ready to score. Clement hits at a 35% clip route-to-sprint. 

#9 Loaded Joe – California shipper who was running with much better horses than these he will be facing today. Trainer Rob Atras inherits him from Carla Gaines, a very capable trainer, especially with grass runners. Irad should place him on that early flight and stamina should kick in, as he was running longer trips at Cali. 

#3 English Humor – Another one taking the drop from maiden allowance to maiden claimers, he had some trouble in his most recent start. The seven furlong s should be right up his alley and has two solid breezes in preparation for this one. 

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