Back at it with another edition of Aqueduct Fridays, I’ve been pretty hot lately and hope to keep it going today! If you’ve been playing my top picks at the Big A winter meet I’ve given a positive ROI so far. Best of luck if you’re playing along! As always follow me on twitter @cjfelts87.
Longshot play(s) of the day: Race 2 #2, Race 3 #4
Best Bet(s): Race 4 #7, Race 5 #3, Race 7 #7
Daily Gallop stats- Total: 241-66-42-55 (27% win, 67% ITM)
Aqueduct meet totals: 92-30-10-24, $2.54 ROI for every $2 bet ($184 wagered = $234.50 returned)
Race 1 MCL 50k 3yo, 6.5 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 3,4 B: 2,5
Top pick- #4 Fevola
- She seems like the horse to beat as she drops down from msw 65k after a decent debut. Manny Franco hops on for Chad Brown and there’s not much value here at 7-5 ML but should she improve on her second start against easier competition she’ll find her way into the winners circle.
Second choice- #3 Three Eyed Raven
- Eric Guillot has done well in 4 starts this meet with 2 winners and it is a tell tale sign that he gets Eric Cancel on a first time starter. This is not a particularly strong or big field and he has a nice 5 furlong bullet coming in.
Underneath- #2 First Degree, #5 Colloquist
Race 2 CLM 32k fillies and mares 4up, 7 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 2,6 B: 5
Top pick- #2 Whyisshesoolucky
- I have no interest in the favorite so I’ll take a chance with his 12-1 ML shot. Ran huge 2 back to win at 46-1 and last race you can excuse since it was in the slop. Now gets a jock upgrade to Eric Cancel for a hot trainer in Randi Persaud, at 12-1 with a beatable favorite why not take a shot?
Second choice- #6 Miss Jak
- One of two uncoupled entries for Rob Atras (the other being the favorite, the 5). Atras does not do well off layoffs but does well first off the claim as this mare stays at the same level and gets a jock upgrade to Manny Franco.
Underneath- #5 Daria’s Angel
Race 3 CLM 12.5k 4up, 1 ⅛ miles
Multi Race- A: 4,5 B: 1
Top pick- #4 Calculated Risker
- His last race wasn’t all that great but if you go back and watch the replay it was snowing; not exactly ideal racing conditions. If you toss that race he’s actually in pretty good form and seems okay in a field of bad horses. 6-1 ML and Dylan Davis hops on.
Second choice- #5 Mills
- What are the odds a 10 year old gelding wins 2 races back to back in the span of a week? Not good enough to take 4-5 ML. He may very well win, but I have a difficult time getting behind him at such a short price. Eric Cancel stays aboard.
Underneath- #1 Philly Completely
Race 4 CLM 25k N2L 4up, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 4,7 B: 5,6
Top pick- #7 Seed Money
- He’s in good form and finds a nice spot as Eric Cancel hops on. Thinking he’ll get a good ride coming from off the pace with the speed of the 1 and the 3 and Leah Gyarmati does well sending out runners within 31-60 days (13%, $2.80 ROI).
Second choice- #4 Mandatory Payout
- Hasn’t been able to find a fast track the past couple of races but his prior form makes him tough here. Has good tactical speed to be involved as they turn for home.
Underneath- #5 Ventus, #6 Our Stormin Norman
Race 5 MSW 68k 3yo, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 3,6 B: 1,4
Top pick- #3 Its a Wrap
- I’m thinking he’s gonna fire and run well after a decent debut, Manny Franco stays aboard as he adds blinkers and he’s been training well. Looks pretty good for Michelle Nevin who has an uncoupled entry in here (also has the 2).
Second choice- #6 First Line
- Triple crown nominee so the connections were thinking highly of him from the start. Maybe that is a bit much to expect from him now, but making a debut at a mile is tough for any horse so he’ll appreciate the shorter distance second time out.
Underneath- #1 Not So Easy, #4 Mr Phil
Race 6 AOC 40k n2x state bred fillies and mares 4up, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 5,6 B: 3
Top pick- #5 Lucky Move
- She seems to be the horse to beat in this spot and her recent figures make her competitive. Will need some pace to close into but has outclasses her competition with recent stakes-placing finishes. Failed as the favorite last time but willing to give her another try.
Second choice- #6 Little Song
- Steps up from the allowance n1x condition into a nice spot today. Will need a beyer boost off the last effort but she offers an intriguing 12-1 price and Eric Cancel stays aboard today.
Underneath- #3 The Great Johanna
Race 7 AOC 40k n2x state bred 4up, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 6,7 B: 2,3
Top pick- #7 Le General
- Has a lot of speed and can improve as he finds a fast dirt track for the first time in a while. Comes off a sharp 5 furlong bullet and gets Franco in the irons; last time Manny was riding he won by 6 to break his maiden. Looks real tough drawing the outside.
Second choice- #6 The Caretaker
- Deep closer has some pace to close into which would make this a nice pace play normally but loses Lezcano for Romero Maragh which makes me think twice. Logically he is dropping down from stakes company and 2 back won at the n1x allowance level so he’s clearly a player.
Underneath- #2 Summer Bourbon, #3 Bustin Shout
Race 8 STR ALW 50k fillies and mares 4up, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 4,8 B: 2,7
Top pick- #4 Dovey Lovey
- Can be hard to trust but she is coming off a big win against n3L claimers and now takes an aggressive step up to the starter allowance level. 5-1 ML seems like a pretty nice price and I think we’ll see another good race from her today.
Second choice- #8 Miss Mi Mi
- Has been consistent and cuts back to 6 furlongs as Manny Franco stays on. Draws the outside as he gives the starter allowance level another try, she’s also 3/3 itm at the distance with a win and 4/4 itm at Aqueduct- with 1 win at 6F, 2 wins at Aqueduct.
Underneath- #2 Quietude, #7 Sea Sparkle, #9 Cape Cod Diva