Hello everyone and welcome to Day number 3 of 15 for The Daily Gallop’s coverage of the 2019 Colonial Downs Meet. My name is Paul Hundley and I’ve done analysis/selections for several tracks through various websites over the years, but I can say without a doubt being able to cover my hometown track here is the biggest thrill I’ve experienced since doing these write ups. Want to thank John and Spencer for allowing me to do this. We have an 11 race Card today which includes 2 steeplechase races and 4 Stakes races restricted to Virginia Bred and Sired Horses.
RACE 1: 1-2-6
Not a Steeplechase expert so just briefly touch on this race here, a MSW going 18 furlongs for Four year olds and upward. 1-SILVER CRESCENT was an admirable 3rd in hurdles debut at Monmouth on 4th of July. Also was first start since last October so should be improved second off the layoff for Trainer Leslie Young, 22% second start on form cycle. 2-Hepcat finished ahead of top choice in that race, which was second runner up finish of 2019. Also second off layoff for veteran jump trainer Jonathan Sheppard.
RACE 2: 3-7-8
It could be Christmas in August today if 3-JINGLE BELLS wins here. Has tried level twice and last out was in contention before having to steady. Will be coming from off the pace which has been the successful running style so far on this long Colonial turf stretch. 7-Haiku I wrote a “Haiku” for; Last time on turf won Been off since January First time Blinkers here. But seriously, Haiku has not tried turf since his maiden score last October, and has been off six months. Trainer Neil Morris 20% last 79 starters off long layoffs.
RACE 3: 1A-1-2
RACE 4: 5-4
5-ODE TO JOY faded last out on yielding turf at Laurel but before that hadn’t done anything wrong winning her first two races. Switches to all time leading rider at Colonial, Horacio Karamanos riding for high % trainer Armand Delacour. Will probably assume a stalking position today that she employed her first two starts. 4-Rosebud’s Hope won last out gate to wire by 5 lengths at Woodbine in a race That has already produced two next out winners. Is also very proficient at today’s 1 Mile distance (6-4-1-0).
RACE 5: 2-1
The first of four Virginia Bred/sired Stakes starts here with the Tyson Gilpin Stakes for Fillies and Mares three years and older going 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Going with a slight upset here in 2-WHAT THE BEEP for local trainer Karen Godsey Of Eagle Point Farm, who has been a mainstay at Colonial meets during its initial run. Was a well beaten second last out on dirt in an Allowance race, was 5th in this race last year when it was ran at Laurel But was the 3/2 favorite that day. Has 2 wins in 4 starts at today’s distance. 1-Virginia Fable was beaten less than a length last out in an optional Claimer at Laurel, was 2nd last year in this race, which seems to be a favorite finish of hers as she is 6-1-4-0 at the 5.5F distance. Good to see Xavier Perez having a good year, winning at 14% in 2019. The last year Colonial ran was one of the leading riders at the meet, but had fallen on hard times since then after parting ways with his jockey agent at the time.
RACE 6: 1-2-6
Going to try and beat the logical favorite Big Agenda here with 1-CROQUE MONSIEUR, who comes in from Ellis Park and is making second start in the U.S. coming from Great Britain. Was 3rd of 10 last month vs Allowance company and should be able to save ground on the rail today. 2-Big Agenda has been in great form pretty much his whole 11 race career, in the money every start since off the board in debut. However has a possible case of seconditis, 11-1-8-1 career record, though one of the 2nds was a DQ from first. Has shown adaptable pace styles, has went to the lead but also has stalked and even came from slightly off the pace. Could see a lot of people keying this one on top and is formidable in here.
RACE 7: 6-2-7
Really tough race to figure out here. 6-SHIFRA MAGICIAN has been in good form her last 3 races with a win and a pair of runner up finishes. Will be coming from off the pace in a race that appears to offer ample speed early on for her to run into. Trainer Lynn Ashby a strong 20% on turf. 2-Unbridled Escape will be one of those going for the early lead. Has been in tougher spots last several races so should welcome class relief. 7-Shrove Tuesday could be favored here but is coming in off a 5th place finish where she was never really in contention. Should also benefit from a potential faster than normal early pace.
RACE 8: 10-8-6
This race is The Meadow Stable Stakes going 5.5 furlongs on turf. Granted speed hasn’t done great so far the first two days of the meet, but I’m still a sucker for possible lone speed, which seems to be what we’re getting here with 10-READY TO RUN, who broke his maiden last out first off the claim for Trainer Kieron Magee. Granted facing winners for the first time,much less in a Stakes race is a daunting task, but I’m thinking with the early pace advantage plus getting a weight break as a three year old. 8-Elusive Mischief has been facing much tougher but the last time vs Virginia breds he dominated the Punchline Stakes last September in a race taken off turf. Ridden by Sheldon Russell that day who also rides today. 6-Fly E Dubai has a pair of 5th place finishes vs OC company at Penn National but those races are probably tougher than the foes in this race.
RACE 9: 6-8-9
Next up is the Nellie Cox Stakes for Fillies and Mares going 1 Mile on turf. 6-TRYON SUMMER comes in from Churchill circuit where she honestly didn’t do much but competed vs much tougher than she faces today. Has tactical speed and has exhibited different running styles successfully. Am thinking J.D. Acosta employs s stalking trip here. 8-Yes To The Dresshas been off the board her two races this year and has not hit the board since she raced at two. My reasoning for having her 2nd here is that her only try vs VA breds was an easy 4 length winner in the Jamestown Stakes. Trainer Horacio DePaz is 33% third off the layoff. 9-Fionnbharr routes for the first time and hopefully for her will not be as far back early as she was in last in the Stormy Blues Stakes at Laurel.
RACE 10: 1-2-7
We present the Edward Evans Stakes going 1 Mile on turf, before we get to analysis want to point out 12 year old Two Notch Road running in here. 1-FIRST TALENT has never been on turf but they tried last out to get him on turf but race was taken off. Like they are coming right back to turf. Trainer Jeff Runco is 24% first time route and 29% with shippers. Rider Arnaldo Bochachica from Charles Town is 28% for 2019. His Dam, Talent, has produced 4 turf winners from 8 starters. 2-Determined Vision was last of 7 last out at Penn National going 5 furlongs But has been successful in two tries vs State need company; a second and a win in Stakes races. Colonial veteran trainer Phil Schoenthal 20% 3rd off the layoff. 7-Black Prong has ran some very high speed figs sporadically but has never followed up with a matching effort off of them.
RACE 11: 1-2-6