Golden Gate Fields Racing Analysis — Friday, July 31, 2020, by Dave Chen

It’s opening day at Golden Gate Fields. That’s right! A 2 week Wine Country racing meet held at Golden Gate. Friday through Sunday for the next two weeks with post time of 1:15. There will also be some arabian races for the first time ever this Saturday. 

Make note of the wagering menu for the next two weeks as it is different than the usual. The noteworthy differences include a $1 minimum trifecta and pick 3s. There is only 1 pick 5 and that is the last 5 races on the day. The early pick 4 will begin with the first race and the pick 6 is not a jackpot. It is a $1 pick 6 and the Super High 5 is a 50 cent minimum. These are the wagers that are different than usual but there are also the regular wagers (Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Superfecta) that are the same.

While we were away for 6 weeks at Pleasanton we saw top jockeys from the Winter/Spring meet take their riding tack to Southern California (Juan Hernandez, Ricardo Gonzalez, and Kent Desormeaux). The last two leading jockeys of the longer meets have now both gone down to SoCal (Juan and Abel Cedillo). With the departures Kyle Frey took advantage of the opportunity and went on to win the jockey’s title with 26 wins. David C Lopez as well as Frank Alvarado (36% win rate) had success as well. But there’s also the apprentice Santos Rivera who started to make a name for himself winning 7 of his 26 mounts. He seems primed for some success. On the cold side of things jockey Francisco Monroy went 3 for 63 and Cristobal Herrera went 0 for 47. They’ll look to bounce back here. The trainer side of things featured Isidro Tamayo winning the trainer’s title over Jonathan Wong 16-9.

There are a couple turf stakes with one each week and the first one tomorrow is the Luther Burbank for fillies and mares 3 & up routing 1 Mile & 1/16. Next weekend 3 year olds take that same distance in the Robert Dupret Derby.

It’s great to be back at Golden Gate Fields and let’s try and find some winners on this opening day card.

Race 1: 1 Mile $3,200 Claiming 3 year olds & up (6-3-1)

6 Giant Mark appears to be the controlling speed in the opener. He is by far the quickest and should be on top early and often. He is dropping in class slightly from his last effort at Pleasanton. This 8 year old has the most wins in this group and will be the one to catch. Catalino Martinez hops aboard for trainer Samuel Calvario (winless at Pleasanton).

3 Thorn Hill Cat is making his first start of the year off a 10 month layoff. He is a classy gelding as he has run in allowance company in the past. This is by far the lowest claiming tag he’s been in for. He does like the synthetic surface but the only concern is the layoff. Jonathan Wong will leg up Brayan Pena here.

1 If I Had A Nickel is making his third start off the layoff. He returns to a surface he likes which is this tapeta surface. That is also why I ignore that last run at Pleasanton. It wasn’t bad either as he finished second against a weaker bunch. Reid France’s barn had been clicking all meet at Plesanton and looks for that to continue here.

Race 2: 1 Mile (Turf) $20,000 Maiden Claiming 3 year olds & up (2-5-4)

2 Trojan Magic makes his first start off the claim for trainer Doug O’Neill. This son of Twirling Candy originally cost $185,000 but has been in for a tag a couple times lately. His two turf races are very good. He’s set the pace and tired turning for home. Another race here where pace is lacking and look for him to attack early. Jockey William Antongeorgi III gets the call.

5 Island Heat hops on the turf for the first time and goes two turns today. Being a son of Unusual Heat I don’t think that’s a problem. He is also in for a tag today for the first time.

4 Friendly Outthedor is an 11 time maiden. This horse was last seen finishing 7th in a common event with our top pick who finished 2nd. He has definitely faced tougher in the past but is a lightly raced 6 year old and is in for his lowest career claiming tag.

Race 3: 5.5 Furlongs $4,000 Claiming 3 year olds & up (4-1-6)

4 Stocked will be making his second start off a 4 month layoff. He is also dropping in class and returning to the tapeta surface that he prefers. 3 wins with 10 in the money finishes for him in 19 starts here. Catalino Martinez rides for the hot Tamayo barn. This horse might need to be closer than usual today with the lack of speed to chase.

1 Going Away Party draws an unfortunate inside post. He exits a common event with our top pick and finished a spot in front of him. In fact he has finished in front of him a couple times. He is also a 3 time winner on Golden Gate tapeta and is dropping in for a career low 4k tag. He might be the one who sends with the rail post.

6 My Friend George is an off the pace type runner. He cuts back from a mile to 5.5 furlongs. He is a 12 time winner who wishes there was speed to run at. He does get Kevin Orozco back aboard one more time today. 

Others to consider: 2 Boy Howdy has picked up back to back wins since shipping up from SoCal. Albeit those races were on the dirt surface. He will be testing the tapeta for the first time today and that is a question mark for this 7 year old. 7 Cannonball Comin is winless in at least his last 14 races. This horse has been facing tougher competition and is in for a low 4k tag but this horse lacks speed to run at. Will have to hope the big class drop makes a difference.

Race 4: 1 Mile (Turf) $20,000 Maiden Claiming 3 year olds & up (4-5-6)

4 T Bones Trick will get back onto the turf course after being a beaten 2/5 favorite at Los Alamitos. In one try here on turf he ran third. He has been close to breaking his maiden of late. He hopes the switch back to turf can get him through today.

5 Luck Is My Name is a 15 time maiden who has 2 thirds in 3 tries here on the Golden Gate turf. He comes off a race he ran a very good second in. The high number of times he’s had to break the maiden is not appealing.

6 Hula King is stepping up in class to face older competition. He is trying turf for the first time and exits a race where the second place finisher won next time out. He has a good closing kick demonstrated two and three back rallying in a sprint.

Race 5: 5 Furlongs $12,500 Maiden Claiming 2 year old Fillies (9-6-1)

9 Snoozy Suzy makes her second start today. On debut she fired to the front and got caught late in the stretch. The third place finisher who finished behind this filly came back to win next time out against a tougher field for 32k. She is dropping in class today half of her debut claiming tag. Frank Alvarado stays aboard this runner. I think she can track right off the early speed instead of battling with the speed up front.

6 Nova Star is also a second time starter. She broke slow out of the gate and made a nice rally to pass some runners late. The winner was the aforementioned third place finisher in the common race with the top pick. With the class drop and the experience under her belt, a better start can improve her chances greatly.

1 Cold Brew Kelly is a debuting daughter of the fan favorite California Chrome. Unfortunately she draws the rail post position but it appears she’s been working well into this race. David C Lopez rides and we saw him rack up some wins in the 2 year old races earlier this spring. I don’t think 6/1 will hold up unfortunately. 

Others to consider: 4 Electric Elizabeta makes her second start today. She debuted two weeks ago at this level at Pleasanton. She showed speed and weakened to finish second. The experience factor should help her along with her early speed if nobody challenges up front. 3 Big Wish is the second most experienced runner in here as she has raced three times. She finished 4th last time out taking on the boys in just a 6 day break. She finished 5th in the common event to Nova Star. This is the first time I’ve seen trainer Leanna Ekstrom here at Golden Gate.

Race 6: 1 Mile & 1/16 (Turf) $20,000 Claiming 3 year olds & up (3-2-6)

I’m taking a stand against the morning line 2/1 favorite 4 Gabo’s Macondo. He is coming in off a year long layoff although he’s been working well in the morning. Unfortunately I see some other speed to challenge him early in the race which is why I think this sets up for others in the field. 

3 Tough It Out is a horse I think that benefits from the speed battle. He is a horse that sits off the pace near the rear of the field. This will be his second start off a 4 month break and he is also dropping in class. His last win was via disqualification here last April which means it has been a while since this horse crossed the wire first. He has mostly faced tougher horses down in SoCal which I think will be the difference here for trainer Steve Sherman. Champion rider of the Pleasanton meet Kyle Frey gets the mount.

2 Upo comes in off a win on dirt at Pleasanton in the n2x condition. He gets back on turf where he has 2 wins, 3 seconds, and a third in 9 starts. He has speed out of the gate but he can also win from off the pace. He has gone as high up as the allowance ranks here and could be coming on late for jockey Julien Couton.

6 Nowhere Man makes his first start in the Quinn Howey barn. He was last seen against 40 claimers at Pleasanton on dirt. He drops in class and gets on the turf today. He has 5 wins, 4 seconds, and 4 thirds in 16 starts on the Golden Gate turf. He has speed but I think he’s best sitting a tracking trip. Alejandro Gomez gets the mount on the class drop today.

Race 7: 6 Furlongs $16,000 Maiden Claiming F & M 3 & up (3-5-8)

3 Senorita Estrella appears to be the one to beat here. She has run some good seconds her last two tries out against maiden 25s. Today she drops slightly into the maiden 16. Brayan Pena stays aboard this filly knocking on the door. Victor Trujillo’s runners were absolutely firing here in the winter/spring meet so don’t be surprised if he has a big rest of the 2020 racing year.

5 St. Annie’s Indy is dropping from maiden special weights into a claiming tag for the first today. I get that she’s never hit the board in her 6 starts but I think the class drop makes a difference. Two back the winner Papapifas went on to win 2 straight including an allowance event. Last time out the first and third place runners went on to win next out. So she is exiting some live races.

8 Bee Einstein ran second on the drop from maiden special weights to 12.5. I get the race wasn’t appealing time wise but I do like seeing trainer Jesus Ramos put this runner back up in class off that effort. She could run another strong race here.

Others to consider: 4 Tibby Gee is a 7 time maiden but she’s run some good races in the past. She exits a couple common races with our top pick. She hasn’t done tremendous since off the layoff but her races early on in her career catch the eye and just maybe she could return to that form. 1 Final Demand is interesting at 8/1. She debuted at Los Alamitos in the summer meet and didn’t really do much as she had a troubled trip. Second time out and shipping up here to Golden Gate can improve her chances. The winner and third place finishers also came back to win next out. 10 pound apprentice hops aboard here which also helps.

Race 8: 1 Mile (Turf) $8,000 Claiming 3 year olds & up (6-9-7)

6 Arch Anthem went wire to wire last time out here on closing weekend. I don’t think he gets the lead here as there is a ton of early speed. I think he sits a good tracking trip and looks to rally from off the pace. Silvio Amador will navigate him once again today. 

9 Magic Rate comes off a 4th place finish for 8 at Pleasanton on dirt. He gets back on turf where he broke the maiden going wire to wire. This is also his third start in the form cycle which makes me think he could be sitting on a good race. I think he will have to navigate a good trip to avoid being hung out wide.

7 Mad At Money moves into trainer Rene Amescua’s barn. This horse was 5th on tapeta last out in a race where the first and third place finishers came back to win next out. He broke his maiden from off the pace and this is a similar situation I see happening for him to win today.

Others to consider: 4 Fort McHenry tries turf for the first time. He went over to Oaklawn after running here earlier in the year. Over at Oaklawn he was well beaten but we’ve seen runners at Oaklawn go on to win at other tracks as those races have been live. Turf will be the question for him but should appreciate the easier competition. 1 Alleycat has not won in quite some time but does appreciate the pace to chase. Lone two wins have come here on turf and he is also dropping slightly in class today. 8 Aigle was a really good runner at one point. Since he has dropped in class all the way down to 3,200 last time. He does like the turf course and likes a pace to chase. Third start of the year off a 6 month break allows him a chance to redeem himself.

Best Bet: Race 7 Senorita Estrella 3/1

Price Play: Race 8 Mad At Money 10/1

There we have it for opening day of the Wine Country racing meet at Golden Gate Fields. Good luck!

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