Turfway Park Friday March 8, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves black licorice, road trips in the dead of night, racing under the lights, and dark humor. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Welcome to night racing at Turfway Park… Bomb’s Away.
Don’t forget the Jeff Ruby Steaks tomorrow!
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – Claiming 5000n2x 1 Mile 4YO&Up
6-7-5-1
I’m starting the card by eating the chalk of #6 Kitten for Granny. He has improved over his last three races at Turfway Park and his morning workouts over the Florence track continue to demonstrate that he likes the surface. Rodney Prescott stays aboard for the third consecutive race, which is a good sign that the connections aren’t tinkering with what is working. #7 The Predictor looks to be the main threat to the ML favorite. He has been an improving sort as well, but his running style may actually be best suited for a race with a little more front-end speed. I like trainer Aaron West moving to Cory Orm for the mount, and he can be a factor if he can show just a touch more fitness and guts down the lane. #5 Bluegrass Beat threw in a major clunker last time out, so if you can figure out a way to draw a line through that effort, he fits here too.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n1y 6 ½ F 4YO&Up F&M
3-2-1-7
#2 Prom Theme has become a bit of a legend around Turfway Park as this 10YO has made 40 starts in Florence. She is a hard-knocker and has had some new-found success with a few second place finishes. Her running style shouldn’t be too compromised by the two-hole, but she does have a tendency to be late to the wire. Losing John McKee probably doesn’t help the cause. She fits, but I prefer others. #1 Gemstone Linda has been facing much better in Florida and she ships for her first career all-weather start. Her running lines have made her the ML favorite, but I am a total play against for numerous reasons: rail draw, no Turfway experience, below-average jockey, and a trainer yet to win at Turfway this meet. #3 Bang looks to get the best of it as far as pace dynamics in this race. She should have enough early speed up front for her to make a nice closing run and she may even be able to get first jump on them like she did last race. Her recent efforts seem to indicate trainer Ricky Short has improved her enough to get her picture taken.
Race Three: 7:13 post – MC 7500 6 F 3YO
7-4-2-5
#6 Coleaquilis has scratched as the ML favorite, so we can take a shot in this low level claimer if we want. Let’s be honest, this is not a race full of good horses. #2 Niffler could improve enough of his first start to win at second asking. I’m not thrilled with the inside post or the jockey, so that’s a no for me, dawg. #4 Quest Approval has improved in both races since moving to Turfway Park for owner/trainer Alexis Cordero-Lopez. He made the lead going a mile last out but faded down the stretch. The cutback in distance may just be the ticket. He looks to be the best of the known runners. #7 Jimmys Lifestyle is a first time starter for owner/trainer/breeder Wesley Ward. All signs point to yes for a horse debuting as a gelding with a string of Turfway Park workouts dating back to early December. I’m not thrilled that Ward is debuting him in a MC 7500, but he looks the part. He is either much the best or not much at all.
Race Four: 7:42 post – Claiming 15000n2L 1 Mile 3YO&Up
5-1-3-2
I am going to play against the #3 Witch Doctor with some hesitation in this race. His Turfway debut was last Friday night against a better group, but I’m not too sure how I feel with the drop in class on short rest. Kim Hammond is no dummy and I am sure she knows what she is doing here, especially since his back class of races hints of some ability. He has every right to improve in his second Turfway race; I just don’t like the quick wheeling back. #1 Tomahawk Kitten certainly belongs with these and he has been improving every time he takes to the Turfway track. He is Euclyn Prentice’s only listed mount tonight too, so there must be even more to the horse to get a jockey to show up for just one race. There is some concern that he is 1/17 lifetime and he may not want to win. #5 Finished failed miserably as the favorite against a group of $7500 claimers on 1/24/19. The Goodman’s claimed him out of that race and were probably thrilled to see the clunker. He is only 1/16 lifetime and he broke his maiden at the MC $7500 level, so I am not too pumped to endorse him, but his 2/23/19 Turfway workout for his new connections was a scorcher and he gets Rodney Prescott. That’s good enough for me.
Race Five: 8:12 post – Claiming 5000b 6 ½ F 4YO&Up
6-9-8-7
#9 Brother Cesare is going to be super tough in this restricted claiming race. A repeat of his 2/16/19 winning race easily gets it done tonight as well. Cipriano Contreras owns and trains this horse and Luan Machado stays aboard for the fourth straight race. He also draws the outside post in a race devoid of early speed, so he could have his way on the front end. In my opinion, if it is not Brother Cesare walking the dog, it has to be #6 Dance Strike. Bret Santangelo is throwing the blinkers back on this horse after a race where he looked completely disinterested. Dance Strike has faced much better than this group earlier in his career and even ran with the blinkers on four times. Sure, he was getting crushed against those better horses, but he was still racing at Woodbine, Keeneland, and Gulfstream. His Turfway workouts have hinted that he is a better horse than what has been showing up under the Florence lights, so I am going to try to steal this one from the chalk.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 5000n2y 6 1/2 F 4YO&Up F&M
6-3-2-5
#3 Winners Expectation absolutely crushed a field of similar runners on 2/14/19. Not only did she win for fun, she completely circled the field to get the early lead by the second call. She lost a little of her winning margin coming down the lane, but that is only because Luan Machado had her wrapped up. The same effort tonight gets her picture taken for owner/trainer Ethan West, who is 10/13 ITM at Turfway. She is dangerous. #2 Dayin Deauville made a long, sustained drive to get up for the victory in her last race on 2/16/19. She beat a pretty good Dream Park, a next out winner, in that race, but she wasn’t quite as visually appealing as the Winners Expectations’ last. She is headed in the right direction for trainer Aaron West, but her inside post is sure to be an obstacle. #6 Gales of November remained in the gate on 2/28/19 and gave the field what looked to be a thirty yard head start and we never saw her in the broadcast picture again. In fact, her start was so bad the stewards even reviewed the replay to see if she should have been ruled a “non-starter.” She was facing $8000 claimers that night and has been facing better her entire career. I’m drawing a line through her last and then getting in line to cash my ticket on her.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – MC 7500 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
3-1-6-8
Let’s face it; this is a pretty weak MC $7500 even for Turfway Park. You can endorse the ML favorite #1 Rehearsal Dinner as she looks to be the only player on paper and she is dropping to her lowest level for her connections. In fact, they may even lose her tonight because she is dropped so low. Her works don’t inspire me, but she keeps Luan Machado in the irons. She could air this field out, but if she is capable of doing that, why enter her at $7500. I’ll pass. The difficulty is finding the correct one to beat her. Most of these are tosses, but maybe… just maybe… we can find a hidden horse. #3 Dreams Are Mine doesn’t look like much, but I am going to take her on top. She has had some horrible starts in her short career, so I can excuse some of her running lines, but the thing I like is that she actually closed in her last race, something new for her. Also, owner/trainer Brian Michael has finally given her Lasix for her fifth start, which should help. Cory Orm continues to stay with her, and, let’s face it, he doesn’t need this mount. She is one of the two 3YOs remaining in this race, so she could still improve based on age alone. We already know the older mares can’t run. Let’s take a shot with her.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – Claiming 5000n1x 1 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
9-6-1-3
As bad as the race was on paper, this one is just the opposite as there are several that could win tonight’s finale. The ML favorite is #6 I Got It and she makes a ton of sense. She is 6/8 ITM at Turfway and has been picking up minor checks lately, but the problem is that she really hasn’t been close enough to win. That said, she would not be a surprise. #1 Sweet Rock is a Turfway grinder, tonight making her 21st start in Florence, Y’all. She always seems to be around at the end, but I can’t take a horse that hasn’t won since 2017. #9 Dancing Magician hasn’t won in a while, either, but her recent efforts haven’t been horrible. She has lost her last two races to Allie Grace, a decent mare at this level, and she managed to finish ahead of the tonight’s ML favorite in their last. She is my lukewarm pick as most of these could win tonight.