Colonial Downs Racing Analysis- Saturday Aug 31 2019- By Paul Hundley

Hello and welcome to the Biggest Racing day of the year for Colonial Downs, it’s Virginia Derby Day!! We have a 10 race card with 5 Stakes Races. Let’s get into the action.
RACE 1: 1A-6-7
We start out with a MSW going the old Virginia Derby distance, 10 furlongs. 1A-CALDBECK was 2nd vs similar last time out at Delaware, is second off the layoff and second time Blinkers. Trainer Richard Hendriks is 25% second of a form cycle and should be stalking pace today. 6-Marshall Law is first time U.S. for Michael Stidham, and Trevor McCarthy is aboard. Bullet work two back. 7-Tolaga Bay has been 3rd and 2nd at the meet already and should be coming from off the pace here. 
RACE 2: 11-3-8
11-LIVELY LEA is a FTS by Lea(14% first turf) her dam Silent Queen has produced 4 turf winners from 7 starters. Bullet work 3 back at Colonial signals she’s ready. 3-Thedevilmademedoit is first time turf for red hot trainer at the meet Jamie Ness, who is also 26% second time with lasix.  The negatives here are she will be favored again after failing each of last two races at less than 2-1, and her Dam has not produced a turf winner from 6 starters so far. 
RACE 3: 1-2-5
1-SPEED APP is coming off a maiden breaking win where the place finisher already won next out. Is trying turf for the first time, but the Dam has 2turf winners from 6 starters. Karamanos rides here instead of Closer Look. 2-Hills Down also broke maiden last out, on turf at Parx. Top Mid-Atlantic trainer Michael Pino rarely brings a horse to Colonial, but does so here. Victor Carrasco rides and should be coming off the pace. 5-Closer Look was 2nd at today’s level last race, broke maiden on turf 3 back and is also trained by Ferris Allen, who trains top selection. 
RACE 4: 8-3-1
The first of our “Stakes” races isn’t necessarily a Stakes I guess, after all it doesn’t have a name, but nonetheless it’s a $75K purse and it’s the only race carded for dirt today. 8-QUEEN NEKIA has been in good form her last 10 races, lone exception was 2 back when stepped up to Graded Stakes company in G2 Delaware Handicap. Came back to win her last race coming into today. Jeremy Rose Of Afleet Alex Famer is 2 for 2 on her and is scheduled to ride today. Cuts back from two turns to one today and has early speed. A favorite angle of mine. 3-Foxy Mischief has been ITM last 4 of 5 and also conesin off a two race win streak. Will also be showing early speed, though not necessarily on the lead. 
RACE 5: 11-6-10
11-SO CHARMING is coming in from the NYRA circuit where she has faced tougher than this group today. Karamanos rides for 2006 Kentucky Derby winning Trainer Michael Matz, But this Pick is more about being against the two probable favorites rather than what SO CHARMING has necessarily done. Still, believe the level from NYRA to here will be big class relief. 6-Princesschopeclossd Fast last Out at 1 1/16 mile and is second off the layoff for Graham Motion. Has been an 8-5 beaten favorite her last two races. 10-Polished also comes in off beaten her last two as the beaten favorite but is putting Blinkers on. Was/Nd last out vs Allowance foes. 
RACE 6: 3-5-2
The inaugural running of the Rosie’s Stakes, going 5.5 furlongs for 2 year olds. 3-NEWSTOME blazed to an almost 5 length win in debut on dirt, trying turf for first time and comes in after that debut sporting a pair of bullet works. 5-Four Wherl Drives is a FTS  for two year old guru Wesley Ward and I believe will also be the favorite here. Son of Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah was purchased for over a half million last year and Irad Ortiz Jr is scheduled to ride, though that’s doubtful. Ward is 29% with FTS. Has been working on the turf up in New York. 
RACE 7: 3-2-6
The Kitten’s Joy returns after a many year hiatus and is another for two year olds going 8.5 furlongs and of course is named for 2004 Virginia Derby and turf champion Kitten’s Joy. 3-JACK THE RIPPER makes U.S. debut for Michael Stidham, Who is 24% first route. This French bred broke his maiden last month in his native country. Think JACK THE RIPPER steals this race from the favorites. 2-Cadet Connelly is a maiden trying Stakes company, a favorite angle of many. Was 3rd in only previous turf try and has been right there every race. 6-Field Pass is the probable favorite for Mike Maker and Trevor McCarthy. Broke maiden last out at Saratoga in a race the place horse came back to win next out. 
RACE 8: 5-1-4
The Virginia Oaks returns, unfortunately not graded anymore but still drew a field of decent Fillies. 5-TASTING THE STARS is yet another horse Karamanos and Stidham team up on and apparently I’m expecting them to have a big day. Won a $75K Stakes her last race and is 3 for 3 lifetime. Will be stalking the pace in here. 1-Merrill’s won her debut on turf as a two year old, then won her 3 year old debut at Pimlico. Didn’t take to dirt at all last out in a race taken off turf. Graham Motion sends this dangerous contender out. 4-Ionic went gate to wire last out by 2 3/4 lengths and is a nose beaten second from also being a perfect 3-3 lifetime. Looks to be probable pacesetter under Daniel Centeno for Arnaud Delacour. Looks like a fun Oaks. 
RACE 9: 6-8-3
Okay the big one of the card. While at first glance there doesn’t appear to be any horses the likes of Kitten’s Joy, English Channel, Gio Ponti, etc. this isn’t a bad field. 6-TRACKSMITH is 2-2 in 2019, both on turf, including a$75K Stakes at Monmouth last race. Joe Sharp trains and is 24% third off the layoff. 8-English Bee has been out of the money last two vs Graded Stakes foes, but Motion trainee won the JW Murphy Stakes theee back Preakness weekend. Also the son of 2005 Virginia Derby Winner English Channel. 3-Jais’s Solitude comes in off acwin in an Optional Claimer last out at Arlington and was 2nd two back vs Allowance company at Keeneland. Was 3rd in the Florida Sophomore Stakes at Tampa in the spring. Sophie Doyle rides for Eddie Kenneally here. Kenneally 22% second off the layoff.  
RACE 10: 11-6-5-9

Close Menu