Churchill Downs Saturday September 28, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves six packs, Six Flags, Six Feet Under, and mandatory Pick Sixes. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
The mandatory Pick Six payout starts at Race 4 and the Pick Five carryover goes into the late pool starting in Race 7.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:00 post – MC 50000 6 F 2YO
6-10-8-2
We can use ML favorite #10 Indian Cross as the measuring stick for this field of maiden-claiming 2YOs as this Steve Asmussen runner was first across the wire in a MC75K at Saratoga on 8/21/19. His debut wasn’t very good, he caught a sloppy track in his “win” at Saratoga, and he faded down the stretch in his most recent effort, so there are certainly reasons to play against him. #8 Mister Carson was caught extremely wide in his debut for trainer Tommy Drury on 8/24/19 at Ellis Park. Though he didn’t get much support at the windows, he ran okay and has had two decent works since. Drury has much better numbers with horses in their second career race than his FTS. I expect Mister Carson to improve today. Of the five FTS, #6 No Kai Oi interests me the most. Trainer Wayne Catalano wins at 16% with his FTS and this one has had a string of evenly-spaced, quality workouts building up for his debut. Catalano gets regular rider, and son-in-law, Channing Hill for the trip. In a race full of juveniles, we can expect any of the field to improve, so tote board watching will be important, but these three are the likeliest winners.
Race Two: 6:28 post –MC 30000 6 1/2 F 2YO
12-6-4-11
The second race is somewhat similar to the first on the card as we have a field of baby colts sprinting for a lesser tag. Half of this field of twelve runners are FTS, so I am going to look for the best-known horse and the most-likely unraced colt. ML favorite #11 Davidic Line lacked manners in his debut for Bret Calhoun when he bolted during the post parade on 8/18/19 at Ellis Park. He didn’t hurt himself, but he used up some energy before leaving the gate, so he should have an improved effort today as the three workouts since his debut look to be all about manners and track awareness. He could be much the best, but I can’t play a horse like this on top in a field full of question marks. #6 Allgrit is actually moving up in class after picking up a minor check on 9/6/19 at Indian Grand. This Mattress Mack runner picks up five-pound bug Declan Carroll and trainer Laura Wohlers has coaxed a couple of good morning workouts since his last race, which makes me wonder if the blinkers went on for those training efforts before the announced equipment change today. As a 95K KEESEP 2018 purchase, I’m a little surprised that he has appeared for a low tag, but he has a nice chance to graduate today. #4 Gaspergou debuts for trainer Bret Calhoun and he fires at 14% with his FTS. Sire First Dude hits at 13% with his debut runners and his mare has thrown a couple winners. While his string of workouts is decent enough, I’m not a fan of a gate works immediately before a debut at the track. #12 Move It drew the far outside for 14% FTS trainer Eddie Kenneally, but getting Corey Lanerie for the trip is a huge asset. While the draw must be overcome, Move It fits the pattern of other Kenneally first-time winners. Let’s face it, he won’t need to be a world beater to win at first asking.
Race Three: 6:56 post – OC 62500n2x 6 F 3YO&Up
3-6-5-2
#6 Do Share has a ton of back class for an OC 62.5K and I am surprised that Michael Maker allowed this 6YO to be claimed away from him on 8/16/19 at Saratoga. Do Share has faced a bunch of classy world-beaters, including Imperial Hint and Mitole, and the class relief will surely do him some good. New trainer Norm Casse wins at 42% first off-the-claim, so a win today will come as no surprise, but I have to wonder about his recent efforts. #3 Transatlantic Kiss loves Churchill Downs, 5/7 ITM, and is heading in the opposite direction as Do Share. Though he has been facing lesser opponents, this gelding has been picking up checks since moving to the Greg Foley barn. The race shape should allow Transatlantic Kiss to get first jump on speedball #5 Sevier. This Cipriano Contreras runner has been away for five months, but his six workouts since being put back in training in August have been nothing short of encouraging. I don’t think he’s good enough, but he’s worth a look. Steve Asmussen hasn’t been able to figure out #2 Principe Guilherme after having some early success as a 3YO, but he did run his career-best race here at Churchill Downs on 11/3/18.
Race Four: 7:26 post – MSW 95K 7 F 2YO Fillies
6-2-5-10
The first race of the mandatory Pick Six sequence appears to be a wide-open field of baby girls. ML favorite #2 Weekend Fun may be an opportunity to single because we can draw a line through her last race on the turf at Kentucky Downs. I love the fact that Asmussen thought enough of her to try her in that spot and the public backed her as well, but she faded down the stretch and basically stopped trying. Returning to her familiar dirt sprint is just what she wants, but it should be noted that she has yet to dig in down the lane. #6 Impeccable Style didn’t take a lot of money in her Saratoga debut on 9/1/19, but she split the field in an honorable effort. Kenny McPeek gives her Lasix for the first time and she draws Corey Lanerie, so I expect an improved effort today, especially since her two works since her debut show some promise. If we like Impeccable Style, we probably need to like #5 Cleopatra’s Charm as well. She appeared in the same Saratoga race as Impeccable Style, ran a similar race, gets Lasix for the first time as well as putting the blinkers on, and has trained well in the morning. Sure, she is a Lukas runner, but she has every right to improve as well. If you are spreading in this leg, you should probably include #4 Catherineofaragon and #10 Don’t Mind Me as well.
Race Five: 7:57 post – OC 75000n2L 1 Mile Turf 2YO Fillies
10-4-6-9
The fifth race on the card is the fourth baby race of the day, creating quite another wagering puzzle. Trainer Larry Jones received some racing luck on 8/31/19 when a very game #4 Wexx overcame some serious bumping in her debut at Kentucky Downs and gutted out a debut graduation by disqualification. She is stretching out in her second race, a move that her pedigree should absolutely relish. Jimmy Graham stays aboard after the win even though Chantal Sutherland was the regular pilot in the morning before her debut. Sutherland couldn’t ride at Kentucky Downs when Wexx debuted due to a suspension, and it appears Jones wants the winning pilot to stay with the horse even though Graham rarely rides for the barn. #10 Battleofwinterfell tried the $500K Juvenile Fillies Stake at Kentucky Downs after winning her first race seven weeks earlier at Ellis Park. She didn’t get a ton of support at the windows, but she did run a credible third and has worked nicely twice since her last race. Mark Casse doesn’t let his runners fire very many bullets in the morning, so her 9/20/19 workout looks even more impressive. Getting Florent Geroux doesn’t hurt, either. #9 Takeitback surprised everyone with a 43/1 debut win at Kentucky Downs on 9/5/19 for Mattres Mack and trainer Laura Wohlers. She ran on the front end in her debut and scooted clear at the wire. The extra distance may require some different tactics today against winners, but she is not without a chance. Another first time winner, #6 Kodikova, handled an easier field at Ellis Park on 9/1/19 after experiencing some early trouble. She and Corey Lanerie took all the money that day as the well-supported post time favorite, and she was definitely much the best for trainer Brendan Walsh while looking like she had more in the tank.
Race Six: 8:30 post – MSW 95K 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
5-8-7-12
A full field of twelve runners entered this MSW for 3YO&Up, and I honestly don’t know when I have seen a race so populated with handicapping angles and this race might be the most difficult puzzle of the day. ML favorite #5 Pintxos tries the dirt for the first time today for Brendan Walsh. He took a ton of money as the post time favorite at Kentucky Downs on 8/31/19. I personally witnessed this race and I felt Pintxos hated the long stretch and got a curious ride from Jamie Spencer. If he likes the dirt, being a son of Distorted Humor he should, he will be a major player. #7 Majestic West didn’t make his debut until August of his 3YO year, got claimed from Gary West and Joe Sharp first time out, and is gelded for the first race in his new barn. Gelding him is a curious move as he is a son of Quality Road, so he could have had some breeding shed value if he is able to put together a racing career. He made the lead in his only race and gutted out a tight second place finish that day at Saratoga. To me, the gelding says he might not be a future top-notch runner, but he won’t need to be to win against this group. #10 World Tax War hasn’t won in his first nine starts and this is the first time he will try the dirt. As a 5YO against a field of 3YOs, he should have an edge in physical maturity, and he has always routed. He has a look at a price if he takes to the dirt. #12 Chief Executive has been away from the races for over thirteen months and he reappears as a gelding today for trainer Rodolphe Brisset and jockey Florent Geroux. He has put together a string of eye-popping impressive works for his return to the track today and attracting the services of Geroux is surely a signal of talent. #8 Baringer Spring debuts for Wayne Catalano and his 16% FTS success. Street Boss babies are usually pretty precocious and the 9/14/19 workout screams talent. In fact, all of his morning workouts signal a horse ready to win at first asking.
Race Seven: 9:05 post – Ack Ack GIII $150K 1 Mile 3YO&Up
7-6-8-5
In the first leg of the late Pick Five with a carryover of just over $70K, all eyes will likely be on #8 Timeline in his first start away from the Chad Brown barn off of a ten month layoff. Steve Asmussen enters him today off of a string of eight morning workouts, but Asmussen only hits at 13% with horses more than 90 days away. Timeline has certainly run several races good enough to win today, but I have to wonder about his chances today at a track he has never tried. There are plenty of reasons to support, but he won’t yield much value. #7 Mr. Freeze came up a tad short to #5 Mr Darcy in his return from a seven month layoff on 8/11/19 in an Ellis Park OC $50K. Mr Darcy came back to run a great second place to Recruiting Ready on 9/13/19 here at Churchill Downs where he is 7/8 ITM. Mr. Freeze won his only race at Churchill Downs and has worked four times since 9/1/19. He should improve today and if he’s anywhere close to the level of his 3YO starts, he’s a huge threat. #6 Mr. Jagermeister has strung together a series of three wins against lesser company, but he is arguably in the best form of any horse in the race. Jockey Leondro Gonclaves travels with him today for his only start of the card, which is a definite plus. Mr. Jagermeister deserves the chance at graded stakes, but he hasn’t faced horses of this quality before. He should also have a tactical advantage of being the lone speed in the field, but I have to wonder if he is good enough to walk the dog today. This is a wide open race where I can make a case for almost every runner, so we either need to spread against the favorite if we don’t care for him or find a worthy single. I’m playing against Timeline.
Race Eight: 9:39 post – Jefferson Cup $125K 1 1/8 Mile Turf 3YO
6-2-1-5
The Jefferson Cup is an evenly-matched race full of 3YOs routing on the sod. The ML clustered seven of the eight runners together at odds within five points of each other. I imagine that #5 Faraway Kitten will be the post time favorite for the popular Churchill Downs connections of Ramsey, Mike Maker, and Julien Leparoux. While he has been running in some graded stakes, I have to wonder if he is actually good enough to win this race. He likes Churchill just fine and his GIII win on 7/13/19 is likely good enough, but his last two races haven’t been that good. #6 Tracksmith seems like a much more likely winner than Faraway Kitten and his last race in the Virginia Derby might have been good enough to win today. Joe Sharp gets regular jockey Adam Beschizza back in the irons for the fourth race of this form cycle. #1 Scars Are Cool debuts on the sod today after appearing in the Travers Stakes on 8/24/19. He looks to be an improving colt and he has every right to like the grass as he is a son of Malibu Moon. The jockey change to Ricardo Santana Jr. is an upgrade as well. #2 Spectacular Gem appears to be the lone speed, so he may try to duplicate his performance of his front-running win in the Caesars Stakes at Indiana Grand on 9/4/19. I do wonder why trainer James Baker takes the blinkers off of him today, especially since he won with them last time out.
Race Nine: 10:11 post – Lukas Classic GIII $250K 1 1/8 Mile 3YO&up
8-4-6-7
Let’s face it, #4 Quip just plain stunk in the Pacific Classic on 8/17/19 and I am drawing a line through that race. He ran his career-best race in the Stephen Foster losing by a neck to Seeking the Soul on 6/15/19. That race smokes this field. If you aren’t willing to forgive his last race, it’s wide open. #6 Tenfold also ran in the Pacific Classic and Stephen Foster, but he had results completely opposite of Quip. Asmussen has experienced some highs and lows with Tenfold, and I wonder how much he improves off of his last race. If he does, he is a threat to win. Brad Cox looks to have #7 Pioneer Spirit in good form as evidenced by his stellar workout line. I expect him to go to the front and attempt to wire the field, and he has a solid chance to do so considering the absence of other early speed. #8 Kukulkan and #9 Silver Dust dueled each other in the West Virginia Governor’s Cup on 8/3/19. Kukulkan normally doesn’t normally run on the front end and I expect a huge effort today if he reverts to his regular race tactics under Corey Lanerie. Kukulkan won a solid OC $80K on 5/24/19 in his only race under the Twin Spires and has only improved since then. I am taking this horse “on the come.”
Race Ten: 10:42 post – OC 10000 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
6-4-9-3
I expect an early speed duel between #8 Darlin Rosie and #9 Patti Patti Patti, with Darlin Rosie making the lead, but not being good enough to hold the speed for the entire mile. She’s a hard-knocking track veteran, but I am against her holding the lead for a mile when she is a demonstrated sprinter. #6 Kimberley Dream should get first run at the speed as she showed she finally demonstrated some success on this oval in her last race while dead-heating for the win against better. #4 Colorincolonel stands to receive an ideal trip for her running style even though she lacked punch over this track on 9/13/19. She might be a little short closing into the early speed, but she has a chance to nip them all at the wire.
Race Eleven: 11:10 post – Claiming 20000n2L 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up
9-12-6-8
#6 All Around makes perfect sense because of her consistency, but we couldn’t get a better jockey than Virginia Tormey? I understand using a jockey with weight allowance, but I have yet to see Tormey win a race where she wasn’t on much the best. All Around’s connections probably would have loved to get bug-boy Declan Carroll aboard, but he chose to stay with #12 Admiral Brown, and why not? He finally graduated in his sixth try at the Pea Patch on 8/17/19. The works since his victory aren’t really inspiring and I am normally against playing horses against winners for the first time, especially when they graduate at the MC $16K level. That said, he can still win. #9 Lontani is in her third race of this race cycle and coming out of a route race where she got completely gassed. If I toss that race, she totally fits, especially if she can rediscover her 3YO form. Trainer Tom Amoss claimed her for $30K from her 5/23/19 win here at Churchill Downs and he decides to drop her down to $20K today likely looking for a paycheck.