Am I allowed to pat myself on the back for having the winners of all 5 legs of last Wednesdays Pick 5 (paid $1250) in my top 3? No? Ok, then on to this Wednesdays card.
Race 1
STRATUS BIRD was involved in a fast pace duel in her last before she, and everyone in the field, got blitzed by a runaway winner. The pace scenario looks like it could be much more friendly to her this time. She goes first-off-the claim for Jorge Rosales who has eye catching stats in that category. If she’s clear by the 1/2 pole she’ll be tough to get by. SWISS SKIMMER actually finished in front of BIRD in their last race. She was steadied going into the first turn and then ended up very wide on the second turn. She’s got a good record at this mile distance and her stalking style should have her close to the expected slowish pace. FLORISTA is an enigma. Is she a speed horse? Is she a deep closer? Does she prefer the dirt? Does she prefer synthetic? Does she prefer turf? This is a pretty lackluster field and because she’s coming here from California she may just be flat out better than these. But, at the expected short price, there are just too many question marks. Selections 2-4-5
Race 2
Any class drop into the bottom ranks of maiden races is a significant one. That makes FIREBALL RED dangerous in here. Focus on the first half mile of his last race. He was with a good solid early pace, which should be valuable as this race looks to be lacking any early speed. The winner of that race put on an unreal display down the lane to win by 22 lengths, so everyone’s beaten lengths are big numbers. But even with the winner blowing by her at the quarter pole he continued on and was only beaten 2 lengths by the mere mortal horses who made up the rest of the field. FRENCH COAST is the only horse in here who got beat less than double digits in his last start. COAST has put in 2 solid efforts here and has raced extremely wide in both. He should be able to clear several of the slow breakers inside of him and may actually get a view of the inside rail for a change. COAST hasn’t shown he has a real finishing burst late, so if RED has much of a lead in the lane COAST may not be able to get by. The top 2 tower over the rest of these, so might as well make a reach to find a price horse to fill out the tris and supers. HEAVENLY PURSUIT is the only other class dropper in here. He finished 7 lengths behind the top pick in that race where none of the finishers could even see the winner at the wire. PURSUIT was with RED heading up the backside and then steadied sharply nearing the turn. He moves to a trainer that does very well with horses entering his barn, so it’s possible to see things go well enough today for him to grab a piece. Selections 6-5-2
Race 3.
Already talked about trainer Rosales record with first start off the claim. Well, here’s newly claimed DYF making his first start for the barn. DYF has put in 3 solid, if not spectacular, efforts sprinting here and now goes long. He won the only time he ran a mile on conventional dirt. It looks like the pace has to be hot in here, and DYF’s stalking style should have him in position to make first run when the leaders tire. LOOK AT MY STAR broke slow and finished a length behind DYF in their last sprint. He has a win on his record going a mile, though his recent routes have not been great. STAR rarely breaks well, so expect him to be in the back early, but there should be plenty of speed backing up to him late. On his best day he could pull off an upset. JOHNNY FIVE finished a little behind the top 2 in his last, but he raced extremely wide on the turn that day. JOHNNY has 2 wins and a second in 4 mile tries, so the distance won’t be a worry. He’s been with the leaders throughout in those mile tries, but he may need to settle back early to be effective in this race. Early Pick 4 players may want spread in this leg. The 7 horses in this field have combined for a grand total of 3 wins in 2020. Selections 2-1-5
Race 4
COASTAL TULIPS has run 2 big races this season. She romped in her first start by 9 lengths and left 2 of todays contenders far behind. In her second race, she faced the boys and chased a 43.80 first half mile before tiring the last 1/8 of a mile. There several in here who want to be on the lead, but it’s hard to believe they can get in front of TULIPS early. If she is truly the “speed of the speed” then someone will have to something no one’s shown much ability to do, namely, pass horses down the lane, if they want to win. SOMETHIN’BOUT IRIS couldn’t stay with TULIPS in their seasonal debut. She went wire-to-wire against cheaper last time out, but she showed a little closing ability last season which will be very valuable in here. She’s going to need TULIPS to be under heavy pressure from the start if she’s going to have a chance to get the win in here, but if she settles back early she’ll have a lot of tired horses to pass in front of her. FORTUNE IN SILK had a nice win against cheaper in a pretty good time last out. Both TULIPS and IRIS have beaten her at the meet, but her last says she may be on the improve. She also has at least hinted at being able to keep running if she doesn’t make the lead, so coming from just off of it could grab her a big chunk of the purse.
Selections 3-2-4
Race 5
CRIBBS has been involved in two tough pace battles against better in her first career starts. She drops into a group that should be a little better fit for her early lick. Surprisingly, the horses in this heat who have started have shown little speed. A clear lead in a 2 yr old race is generally the place to be and CRIBBS may find herself there with these. MISS VALOR broke a little slow in her first start and was under tight restraint up the backside. When she finally got a chance to run she was closing well. VALOR is bred to be lightning fast top and bottom, so it will be interesting to see how she is ridden in here. She’s had 4 moderate works since her first start, so fitness shouldn’t be a concern. She showed good ability in her first start and there’s every reason to believe she could improve enough to be a major player here. MS LYNN has appeared hard to handle early in all her career starts. Once straightened away for home she has shown a good late finish. She switches to a more aggressive rider for this one. If she’s able to be kept more in the race early she may be close by late.
Selections 6-7-2
Race 6
The drop from maiden allowance to maiden claimer can be a big one. LA PRINCIPESSA drops out of a rapid maiden allowance heat to meet claimers for the first time. Several of these are coming out of the same maiden claiming race and it was a slow heat, so PRINCEPESSA’s class drop may be a bigger drop than it looks on paper. She’s shown pretty good early foot in these tougher races and in a race that doesn’t show much other early lick, she may be long gone. CANCALE showed some promise in her career debut while running with several of these. She sat pretty close to the lead, raced very wide around the turn, made a move at the leaders at the top of the lane and then tired late. She figures to be close to an expected slow pace, and with the expected improvement from start 1 to start 2, CANCALE could be a threat. PINCHALINCH finished ahead of CONCALE in her last, but she saved ground every step of the way, and CONCALE lost ground every step. LINCH can’t count on saving ground from her outside post in here. She’s been an honest sort, with 4 seconds and a third in 8 starts, but we’ve seen what she has, while the top 2 still have reasons to show improvement here. Selections 2-7-8
Race 7
Looks like the front end is going to very crowded so looking for closers to take this one. HURRICANE FORCE has used his closing kick to run 1st, 2nd and 3rd in his three sprints at the meet. In his latest he was at least 6 wide on an inside biased track and just fell short of beating a horse who scraped the inside rail the whole way. Not a fan of the one hole, but, if the jock can find a way to avoid the tiring speed horses, he could pay a quick dividend to his new barn. SOLAR HEAT has had a rough Emerald Downs season. In his first start, at 40-1, he was full of run down the lane only to lack racing room from the 1/8 pole to the wire. In his second start he raced as far wide as it seems possible and ran 3rd at 25-1. In his 3rd start, at only 18-1, he broke slow and then proceeded to race wider than did in his previous race, and on an inside rail favoring track to boot. He gets a rider change for this and, with a little of the racing luck he deserves, he couple pull the upset. WILD WILD KINGDOM has put in two strong races at the meet. In his first sprint try, he ran 3rd behind 2 next out winners, then he won going long when he ran down a loose on the lead runner who will be favored in a race later in this card. He’s going to get a strong pace in front of him and dropping back to a sprint, he could make some noise late.
Selections 1-4-5
Race 8.
FATS DOMINUS worked hard to clear his pace rival in his last, only to have that rival come back and nail him on the wire. It looks like he’ll have a much easier time getting to the lead in here. He went the first 1/2 mile of his last in 46.1. In today’s race he could a couple seconds slower and still be on a clear lead. He’s going to be a tough customer to run down in here. GRAN FIESTA faced tougher in his last. He broke slow and couldn’t make up much ground in a race where the top two finishers ran 1-2 the whole race. With a good break and easier company he may be able to keep the leader in sight early in here. Going to be a tough task to run down the leader, but FIESTA may have the best chance. BANZE NO OESTE now has run 2nd or 3rd in eight straight races. He fell just short of catching FATS in their last start, but the pace scenario may work against him today. Good chance to run his ITM streak to 9 races.
Selection 8-6-7.
Race 9
Not much to hang your hat on in here, but WORK FOR CARROTS did follow up a dominating wire-to-wire maiden win with a solid off the pace 3rd place finish against better. CARROTS finish was even better than it looks as he raced on the far outside on a rail favoring day. CARROTS meets a less than imposing group here, and his versatile running style will fit well with his outside post. An effort similar to his last two gets the money. TRIBAL IMPACT also ran 3rd against better in his last. He has a stalking style that should go well here with a couple of less than stout speed horses figuring to be tiring late. The rest of this field hardly gets the blood flowing, so looking at a lightly raced contender for 3rd. CONTINUE ON VICTOR improved 33 1/2 lengths in his second lifetime start. He broke slow for the second time, then made a long sustained run on the worst part of the track to win going away. We’ve seen the best from most of these, but there’s no telling how much more VICTOR has to offer. Chance for part, maybe the whole thing. Selections 10-2-7
Race 10
Another race where it looks like it’s going to be difficult to win on the front end, so here come the closers. BISHOPS OF COMPTON is not a sprinter, so her close up sprint prep on opening weekend is noteable. Route races for the filly and mares at this level have been virtually non-existant, so the time away since that prep can be explained. COMPTON shows several works while she’s been waiting for a route race and the Ross barn is well known for their prowess at going sprint-to-route. Expecting to see a big finish from this one when the speed backs up. IF YOU WANT IT had to drop and run against the boys in order to get into a route race. Her race was quite good considering that the 2nd place came back to win and WANT IT raced far wide around both turns. Her new trainer made a timely claim as he gets to run back against the girls and in a race that will set up well for her late kick. Z’S SPERANZA ran a huge race against cheaper in her last start. The obvious questions are: Where did it come from, and can you count on her to do it again? Kind expecting a regression here, but outside of the top 2 picks, this race is full of need-the-lead types and one closing sprinter who has never run long. Z may get a piece of this by default.
Selections 7-6-5
Race 11
If you come to this race with a live Pick 5 ticket, here’s hoping this was your spread race, because there’s no one here you can be sure is going to fire any kind of big race. RENO ROY seems to be rounding into shape after being off since September of 2018. ROY showed good speed in his last while dueling from the outside of a 4 horse duel on an inside favoring track. He showed good closing ability when he was here as a 2 year old, but could easily be on the lead here as well. ROYS only route race was no good, but it was in a stakes, he had traffic problems and he went on a nearly 2 year vacation afterwards, so not going to hold it against him in here. SHERM looked liked he had some ability early in his career, but 12 races later here he is running with bottom level maidens. The drop to the bottom is always a strong factor, and the horses that finished ahead of SHERM in his last have all come back to run well, so upgrade his running line from that race. SHERM’s 2 route races have been credible and he’s getting a 5 lb weight break from most of these. Now or never time? COOLER THAN YOU has closed well in his last 3 sprints. That, in itself, is no guarantee he’ll take to stretching out to a mile, but his pedigree says he will. There’s a lot of shaky form in this group, so the sharp recent races COOLER has strung together make him a player here. Selections 5-4-2.