Turfway Racing Analysis- Wednesday, Jan 1st, 2020- By Dennis trusty

Turfway Park The Daily Gallop Selections and Bets for Wednesday

Weather mid to high 30’s clear sky for the Wednesday races. Also, Happy New Year and Happy Birthday horses! Let’s start this decade off with some winners! Post time is at 1:10 pm!

Race 1 Starter Allowance for F&M 4 years old and up that have started for 5,000 or less since January 1st 2018 going 6 Furlongs

2 Looktheotherway 7-2 hasn’t been in for a claiming price of 5,000 for 2019 so must have been in for a tag of that condition in 2018. Ran last time out for 32,000 allowance optional at Hawthorne where she ran 4th. Won last 2 races ago off the claim by far has the best speed figures on the all-weather and just has a figure on the synthetic. And at this price I think will go off at 5-2 but that is still a good price for her.

4 Sky Vision 3-1 coming from the top barn in Canada in Norman McKnight, to the Shane Meyers stable. Last 6 races on the all-weather have been 5 wins and 1 second, last ran for 5,000 or under on July 17th which qualifies this horse and it was a victory. She doesn’t have better numbers on the poly than the 2, but has a better performance as of recently. Deserving 2nd pick here for me and also, I think being in McKnight’s barn helped this horse out a ton concerning me to see how she performs here.

10 My Dark Secret 12-1 I would rather endorse this horse who has been running in starter and non-claiming races in starter 5,000 vs someone like the 9 who has won for claiming 5,000 the last 2 races. And the reason for this is if this was 30,000 starter those horses are in a steeper price but 5,000 isn’t much so the fact they want to keep the 10 for running 3rd’s and 4th’s than put her in for a claiming tag speaks volumes to me here. Also has 4 on the board efforts at Turfway.

Selections 2-4-10

Bets $3 win and place 2($6)

Race 2 Maiden Claiming 15,000 for fillies 3 years old going 6 and ½ Furlongs

9 Cumberland Pass 12-1 I’m going to be honest this race is bad and I am taking a gamble with this first time starter here at this price off of 2 really good works the last two times on December 21st and 13th maybe she shows speed with A.C. Alex Canchari has ok breeding with Wicked Strong and Consolidato mare. Farfellow Farms kept her and David Rider trains.

10 Templement 12-1 coming out of the Laura Wohlers barn to Luis Jurado getting “the works” with first time lasix and blinkers, so they are expecting this to fix the horse and make her run better. And if not goodbye and putting her in for 5,000. If she can’t run when they “fix” her she isn’t going to run, it is kind of now or never for her. Lastly being a 110,000 dollar purchase someone saw something in her.

12 Winyah Bay 6-5 the outside post doesn’t concern me since that is where a lot of horses have been winning 2nd time on poly and 2nd time in for a claiming price where she ran 2nd is good for the Wesley Ward trainee. I just don’t like this horse at 6-5 but would for sure use this horse in a vertical play just can’t gamble on this horse.

Selections 9-10-12

Bets $2 win $6 show 9 and 10($16) why both because if 1 hits the board I am going to do well and if 1 wins then bingo! Also hope they don’t bet them down… wait why am I giving this out hehe! Kidding!

Race 3 Claiming 5,000 for 4 year olds and up to never to win 3 races in their lifetimes going 1 Mile

4 Gray Donovan 10-1 ran in cheaper races at one time in Northern Cali at Golden Gate. Has ran 3 times on the board out of 4 races in Ohio for trainer Larry Smith. Could be closing late for just a piece of it and at 10-1 that is a fair price for a shot with the horse.

10 Cruz Diez 10-1 the hardest trying jockey out there in my friend Rogelio Miranda (not just saying that I mean it) the horse always tries just not good enough Prime Power number on Brisnet has him picked 1st but out of 34 starts only 2 wins doesn’t sound promising.

7 Valid Storm the only thing I like about this horse is both his only wins were on all-weather and has a record of 7-2-2-0 on it. I don’t know the trainer in Antonio Meraz I do not like how the horse has ran in his barn has gone down in talent a lot since he claimed him from a 23% trainer.

Selections 4-10-7

Bets $2 win $5 show 4 and 10 ($14) again for the same thing last race if one gets there we did good and if they win I don’t want to miss it. This is a really untrusting race.

Race 4 Claiming 5,000 for 4 year olds and up which haven’t won a race since January 1st 2019 (RACES FOR 4,000 DON’T COUNT) (read the fine print). So someone starting the year off right! I like in these races who is dropping and good trainers.

10 Calm Pacific 3-1 this is perfect a good trainer in Grant Hofmans the 10 year old hasn’t seen the track but 3 times last year (that feels weird saying) and when he did it was for 10,000 now in for 5,000. Can’t get worse and did run 2nd for 10,000 at Belterra and gets Albin Jimenez on.

4 Lizzy’s Lure 7-2 has ran 2 hard trying 2nd’s with jockey Rogelio Miranda and he gets back on again beat the 3 horse last 2 times. The 3 is the only horse that has won on the year in this field but it was against weaker competition and it shows that he has trouble beating him for this. Not saying it is impossible but for this race I like the 4 more than the 3 out of the horses exiting the same race.

9 Howell Mountain 8-1 this horse is interesting meaning hasn’t been out so hasn’t done anything wrong in 1 start in basically 2 years. But you don’t get time off for good behavior picks up A.C. Alex Canchari(sorry buddy trying to that to stick and I can say that being friends with Alex lol) Dropping in from allowance to now this race if this horse is ok can win at 8-1 if not won’t do much. Just depending on how this horse is prepared and Ben Delong can get horses ready 2nd off the layoff 19% win percent.

Selections 10-4-9

Bets $2 win and place 10($4)

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight for F&M 4 year old and up going 6 and ½ Furlongs

1 Loving Moment 3-1 previously trained by Phil D’amato to Eric Reed off purchasing this horse at the Keeneland November Sales for 50,000 never been in for a race like this in California and last time at Keeneland. 3-1 this horse might be tough!

6 Frills 5-2 speed and fade last time with Declan Cannon and beat the 9 horse last time to run 2nd for the same condition, now with Alex Canchari a hare more aggressive I think might hold off the 1 horse and getting lasix back on again now. For Trainer Ben Colebrook.

9 Just a Look 9-2 the other Ben Colebrook trainee ran an okay race and if you like the 6 in this situation you have to use the 9 just because even though I am not doing that in a way I still am using this horse for my exacta.

Selections 1-6-9

Bets $1 ex 1,6-1,2,6,9($6)

Race 6 Claiming 15,000 Non Winners of 2 Lifetime for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up going 1 Mile

6 Going to Temple 5-2 jockey Crystal Conning rode this horse to a victory last time out to break the maiden at Turfway rolling late to pick up the victory. She is back on again for new trainer Emma Lyster from Brian Lynch going up from Maiden 7,500 to claiming 15,000(in for 10,000). I am just expecting this horse to like the poly just as much as the first time.

1 Dance the Day Away 5-1 I am just thinking to give that horse another chance because she made a middle move last time for the same condition. If this time she can sustain it she can pick up the victory and she always runs average with a lot of 3rd and 4th place finishes.

5 Rollover Risk 12-1 if you’re looking to get crazy, has back to back 2nd place finishes for cheaper but this field doesn’t look very tough and looks like some could be in for 5,000 anyway. Might be in really good form right now, looks like she could get a good closing trip, and John McKee was on a roll yesterday(last year) winning 3 races.

Selections 6-1-5

Bets $3 win 6($3)

Race 7 Claiming 8,000 for 4 year olds and up going 1 Mile & 1/16th

14 Opportunistic 12-1 won off the claim from 10,000 to 5,000 and was .80 cents to the dollar. Genaro Garica is phenomenal with these types of horse and if he gets in, I want this horse. I don’t think he will but if he does, I think even with the outside post that has been doing well so far, he can overcome it.

10 Purely Boy 7-2 I don’t like betting 11 year old horses but this one with the record of 26-12-4-2 on the all-weather you can’t argue with those results and closing from 11th to win last time is impressive. If the 14 isn’t I am betting this horse!

6 Approvethismessage 5-1 so far Steve Asmussen hasn’t done well but he gets this horse off the claim from winning last time at Churchill Downs. And now has been claimed two times in a row by two decent trainers now him, and has 4 races at Turfway two good ones with 2 2nd places.

Selections 14-10-6

Bets $2 win and $6 to show 14($8) if scratched $3 win and place on the 10 ($6)

Race 8 Maiden Claiming 5,000 for 4 year olds and up going 5 and ½ Furlongs

6 Shelter 10-1 I’m going to play pros and cons on this horse. Pros: not ran yet, so hasn’t done anything wrong. 95,000 dollar purchase price, and gets an under rated Sonny Sunny Leon. Cons: a 4 year old first time starter has been on the work tab since last year and is slow. No world beaters here so I am willing to do a small bet on him.

7 Link to Destiny 5-2 ran for 30,000 and ran a horrible race for Wesley Ward back in January at Turfway running 7th after breaking out on top at 5-2 odds. Came back in February and ran the same exact race for 7,500 improved by 5 lengths and hasn’t been seen since. I see this horse as if you think being in for the bottom is going to improve this horse by the class drop and few races go for it. Will probably be 6-5 or lower and that isn’t worth the risk.

11 Mr Opportunity 8-1 might show a ton of speed and hang on for a placing or could possibly draw away. Has always shown speed and in a race, you must do 1 thing to win: have the lead at some point and this horse is getting the lead. I am taking a small risk with this horse because he quits every time but maybe not today in this awful field.

Selections 6-7-11

Bets $2 win $6 show 6 and 11 ($16)

Grand total of 73 dollars! Let’s rock this new year and start off the year with a bang

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