Saturday December 8th at Turfway Park
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Race 1: MC 30000, One mile on the Polytrack, For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Post Time: 6:15 PM EDT.
Selections: 2B-7-1A
(2B) Foggy Kitten: Although this daughter of Kitten’s Joy has yet to stretchout beyond six and a half furlongs, her pedigree suggests that she should be able to handle the increased distance easily. Luan Machado, the top jockey thus far at Turfway (24% win rate from 29 starts) gets the call to ride for Ward today. Additionally over the past three years Ward has done well not only with runners returning to racing after layoffs greater than 90 days (22% win rate) but also with runners transitioning from maiden to maiden claiming races (29% win rate from 100 starts). Finally over the past 14 days, Machado has won with four of his five mounts for Ward all the while posting a positive $5.00 R.O.I.
(7) Golden Loch: Not only does this daughter of Midas Touch make a major drop in class today for trainer George Leonard III, but she also appears to be working fairly well over the track at Turfway. Leonard boasts an impressive 25% win rate and $7.35 R.O.I. with runners making the transition from maiden to maiden claiming races over the past three years.
(1A) Hope So: The barn of trainer Wayne Catalano sends out this daughter of Bodemeister hoping that her third time racing at a mile on a new surface will go better than her first two efforts over turf and dirt respectively. Hope So is dropping in class today and gets blinkers added for the first time so perhaps that will sharpen her focus and allow her to be a bit more competitive against weaker competition than she’s previously faced. Catalano has been winning at an 18% rate (52% in the money finishes) with runners entered into maiden claiming races for the first time.
Race 2: Clm 5000n3L, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 6:44 PM EDT.
Selections: 4-5-7
(4) You’re the Reason: The Mick Ruis trainee likely needed her most recent race after a nearly 14 month layoff and figures to have the advantage in this race following the class drop. Her last two works have been quite sharp, Ruis has done very well with runners dropping two or more class levels (67% win rate and $3.80 R.O.I.) and it’s very encouraging to see leading Turfway jockey Machado get the call to ride today.
(5) Ringin in the Rain: This Get Stormy filly has already won once at this meet over six and a half furlongs and if she can give a similar effort today, she could very well win again; though I’m not particularly enthralled with the short layoff and slight class hike she’ll encounter today. Over the past three years Crawford has been winning at a 14% rate with runners that won their last race.
(7) Jills Passion: This four year old daughter of Pass Rush has shown decent early speed in the past and while she could be dangerous if she gets loose on the lead tonight, look for her to likely get caught down the stretch and have to settle for a minor award instead.
Race 3: Clm 5000, 1 1/16 miles on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 7:13 PM EDT.
Selections: 4-9-5
(4) Primed for Talent: This son of Talent Search has hit the board in four of six starts at Turfway, finished in the money in four of eight tries at tonight’s distance, and owns the highest last out speed figure (79 Bris Speed Rating (BSR)) amongst the entire field. Additionally, this year he has been fairly competitive when racing at this class level for Smith (23% rate in claiming races over the past three years). Look for this one to be running late with a good chance of hitting the board and possibly winning this race.
(9) Plain Tales: This son of Kipling will be dropping down in class today to a level at which he has found some success; additionally he will be stretching back out to one mile, a distance at which he has finished in the money in 11 of 20 starts including six wins. Victor Lebron (19% win rate in routes this year), with whom he has finished in the money in three of his last four starts, gets the call to ride again today.
(5) Grand Ginjo: This son of Daaher cuts back in class and distance tonight to a mile for trainer Glen Thomason; Grand Ginjo has finished on the board in six of his nine lifetime starts at this distance. Thomason has been winning at a 25% rate with runners making their first start for him, but this five year old gelding does appear to be a bit overmatched and his running style is not exactly ideal for this race as there is not a whole lot of early speed present to help set up the pace for a closer. Use as an underneath play only.
Race 4: Clm 7500n2L, 1 1/16 miles on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 7:42 PM EDT.
Selections: 6-4-1
(6) Lord Revelstoke: This son of First Samurai goes out today for trainer Jimmy Corrigan and appears to be the one to catch; not only does he have good early speed but he also appears to be the lone speed in this race and if he breaks well and gets loose on the lead, he could be quite difficult to catch. Lord Revelstoke does drop in class today, his most recent work back on November 30th was quite sharp, and Corrigan has done very well over the past three years with runners transitioning from dirt to all weather surfaces (35% win rate with a $2.76 R.O.I.).
(4) Daringly Bold: This very well bred son of Bodemeister makes his first start today for trainer Rick Jordan after having finished a game third, beaten only by two lengths, in his most recent start at this distance last month at Churchill Downs. The 83 BSR that he posted in that effort is in fact the highest speed figure amongst the entire field at this distance. Provided Lagunes can give him a good trip, this one figures to be rallying late from off of the pace and looms as the biggest threat to upset the top selection.
(1) Time Traveller: Consider this son of Alternation as an underneath play only as he has yet to attempt today’s distance but has been racing competitively at a mile and against better rivals in each of his last three starts where he has finished second in two of those races. Brownfield has done very well with transitioning runners from dirt to all weather surfaces over the past three years as he has been winning at a 29% rate during that time period.
Race 5: Clm 5000n2y, 1 1/16 miles on the Polytrack, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 8:12 PM EDT.
Selections: 9-3-5
(9) Tenacious Sally: While this four year old daughter of Courageous Cat’s recent form over the all weather surface at Presque Isle Downs has not been great, a return to Turfway where she has hit the board in seven of her eight lifetime starts (including four wins) might be just the change she needs to return to her winning ways. Additionally the drop in class today only further helps her chances. Look for this one to be rallying late behind a likely solid pace upfront and consider her to be the most likely winner of this race.
(3) Stina: This daughter of Haynesfield has been somewhat competitive when racing at this distance in the past, having finished in the money in eight of her seventeen attempts at 1 1/16 miles. Although this will be just the second time she has raced over an all weather surface, if she can return to the form and pace-stalking ability that she displayed earlier this summer then she merits a chance to hit the board in this race. Over the past three years, Contreras has been winning at a 26% rate when shipping in runners to race and has finished in the money in 64% of those 140 starts.
(5) Liar’s Smoker: I have absolutely no idea what happened to this mare in her most recent start to elicit such a poor performance but prior to that effort she had been racing very well against similar class levels. If that last race was simply an anomaly and she can return to that form she previously displayed and show some of that good early speed once again, then she could be very dangerous against this field and will likely try and lead them for quite a long way. Perry Ouzts gets the call to ride again for Smith and over the past year he has posted a respectable 19% win rate when routing.
Race 6: Clm 5000n3L, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 8:42 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-3-7
(5) Honor Bar: This daughter of To Honor and Serve drops down in class today following a couple of even efforts against tougher company at Churchill Downs last month. If she can take to the Polytrack then she could be dangerous here. Over the past three years, Forster has done remarkably well transitioning runners from dirt to all weather surfaces as he has posted a 38% win rate along with a $5.98 R.O.I. when doing so.
(3) Shyla: Although it’s pretty apparent that this one would much rather be routing than sprinting, she has been fairly competitive against much tougher company as of late and thus that should account for something. Shyla will likely be found closing late in this race and could hit the board at a decent price. Garcia has been winning at a 22% rate with runners that went off as the betting favorite in their most recent start.
(7) Lunaris: This very well bred daughter of Orb goes out today for the barn of Ronald Brown. If she can return to the form that she showed back in September when sprinting at this distance then she certainly looms as a major contender in this race. Her most recent work back on November 29th over the track at Turfway was quite sharp and thus she would appear to be in good form coming into this race despite the 52 day layoff.
Race 7: OC 40000n2x, 1 1/16 miles on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 9:12 PM EDT.
Selections: 3-1-2
(3) Broken Promise: The barn of trainer Ethan West sends out this four year old son of Broken Vow tonight to face arguably his toughest test in awhile. Although he has yet to race over the Polytrack at Turfway, he appears to have an affinity for this distance as he has hit the board in eight of his twelve tries at 1 1/16 miles and has won four of those starts. Additionally he has won three of his last four starts and his pace-stalking running style figures to have him in contention throughout the entire race. West has done remarkably well in allowance races over the past three years having won 45% of them and having finished in the money 64% of the time. Consider Broken Promise the most likely winner of this race.
(1) Thirsty Actor: This son of Stay Thirsty has excellent early speed and the rail draw tonight should only further help his chances of being a major pace presence early on. Although he will be stepping up in class tonight, in each of his last three efforts at the $25K Optional Claiming level at Indiana Grand, he was quite competitive and in each effort nearly wired the field before being caught late down the stretch. Thus look for Thirsty Actor to try and employ a similar strategy once again tonight and see if he can either outlast the field this time or hang on to grab a minor award at the end. Hammond has been doing well thus far in the Turfway meet (25% win rate) and does very well transitioning runners from dirt to all weather surfaces (24% win rate). Finally, it is very encouraging to see the top Turfway jockey, Luan Machado, get the call to ride tonight as he has been on fire lately.
(2) Action Everyday: Although this son of The Factor was a bit overmatched in his last effort, he does drop down in class today and his form when routing over all weather surfaces (3/3 in the exacta) must be respected. Action Everyday has shown good early speed in his two most recent efforts over the all weather surface at Presque Isle Downs and if he can return to that form, then he will certainly be a presence on or near the pace early on. Danner has done well in the past with runners making their second start off of a layoff as she has been firing at a 20% rate and finishing in the money 80% of the time under those conditions. Although it may be a bit difficult for Action Everyday to spring the mild upset tonight, this one is a definite must use as an underneath play in this race.
Race 8: Mdn 18.5k, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Maidens, Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 9:42 PM EDT.
Selections: NO OPINION GIVEN