Keeneland
October 17, 2019
A decent Thursday card here today, including the G3 Sycamore as race 8. Weather should be good as well.
Good luck to everyone!
Race 1
#8 Ahsad
This colt will be making career start number three today. His first two were okay. He ran decent on debut, even after running off pre-race. Last time out at Kentucky Downs he had a wide trip and still finished alright. I’m hoping for a clean, uneventful trip for him today. He’ll be looking to come from off the pace, but I think he will get a little pace to run at considering there are some stretch out sprinters in here. James Graham will be aboard today. He’s sneaking good with trainer Daniel Peitz, hitting at 26%.
#12 Strike Appeal
Obviously this is not a good post position, but I do give this guy a look. Mark Casse is adding blinkers for this race, and he hits at 23% with first time blinkers. If he breaks sharp I think he can get a forward position. He’s exiting a maiden race which produced the Breeders Futurity winner here at Keeneland a couple weeks ago, so we know that was a productive race. This will be his first start on the lawn, but I think he’ll be able to handle it. Corey Lanerie will be in the irons.
#11 Mr Matuschek
Again, outside post isn’t ideal. But he should also have a enough speed to be forwardly placed and overcome any post disadvantages. He ran quite well debuting at Kentucky Downs last time. Now Wesley Ward is removing the blinkers, which is a 30% angle for him. The added ground could also help this horse, considering that Galileo is on the bottom side of the pedigree. Tyler Gaffalione rode him last time, and he’ll be back on today.
Race 2
#3 Daring
This is not a real strong group here. This filly ran pretty well to break her maiden last time out at Churchill. She stalked the pace in a 12 horse field, and was able to draw away from the competition in the stretch. She is theoretically taking a step up in class here, but this isn’t a very strong race on paper. There is absolutely no speed in this race, so she should be forwardly placed and get a good trip. Brian Hernandez in the saddle.
#4 Hilltop Harmony
This girl is also making her first start against winners here. She beat a field of six others at Colonial Downs last time out. She sat off the pace and just got up for the win right before the wire. And she also beat a next out winner, so that race might be a productive one. That was also her first start for trainer Bob Hess. This will be second off the layoff today, and Hess is 23% with that angle. Ricardo Santana has the mount. He is off to a chilly start this meet, but we all know he’s due to get hot at any time.
Race 3
#6 Snap Hook
This gelding has never raced at a level this low before. He spent the summer up at Saratoga and did not embarrass himself. He draws outside, and might actually be the speed of this race. I think going wire to wire is a real possibility for this one. Corey Lanerie is the pilot today, and he’s been aboard for both of this guy’s victories before.
#2 Take Charge d’Oro
This horse is first off the claim for Steve Asmussen. Steve is about 21% off the claim, so that’s successful. This horse blew away a field of eight others at Churchill last time out. That race was a couple levels below this one, so this is definitely a tougher spot. He has proven to like this distance. He doesn’t have any early speed, but I don’t expect this race to have a fast pace, so he still shouldn’t be too far back early on. Ricardo Santana will be in irons.
Race 4
#2 Law of the Land
This was a really difficult race for me to sort through. Lots of options. I’ll settle on this guy for the top spot. He was slow out of the gate last time, but still closed pretty well, and got put up to 2nd through disqualification. This will be career start number two. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is almost 20% with second time starters. Plus, he’s adding Lasix for this race. This horse has a nice workout since that debut run. I think he’ll be able to save some ground, and he gets the red hot Javier Castellano to ride. Javier has finished in the money with 24 of his 35 mounts so far.
#11 Aficionado
This colt ran a good second at Kentucky Downs last month. That was his first start on the grass, and he seemed to like it. He’s finished with interest in both starts so far, so that’s something I like to see from a young horse. I do also like the angle of second time blinkers here. He has a tough post position today, but if he breaks well he could be forwardly placed and overcome the outside position. Rudy Brisset’s runners have been running well this meet. Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount.
#3 Lastchanceatglory
I’m interested in this horse stretching out on the grass today. His debut might not look great on paper, but he did finish okay. That race might the perfect type of setup for this one. Paul MaGee has had a few runners hit the board at the meet, and I think this horse could be good to use in exotics at a price. He’ll get lasix for this race as well. Gabriel Saez will be aboard.
#7 Final Breeze
I usually don’t talk about four horses in one race, but as I mentioned before, this race looks wide open paper. This gelding totally outran his odds on debut at Ellis Park on Labor Day, finishing third by just a half length. He’ll be getting blinkers today. Charlie Lopresti is the trainer, and we know that he can pop with a price every now and then at Keeneland.
*I would use many horses in this race in playing multi race wagers. Also a good race to try exactas and trifectas*
Race 5
#4 Peaches and Nuts
This filly was quite impressive winning her debut at Monmouth last month. It was a small field, but she basically won without ever being asked. The water definitely gets a little deeper here, but this girl might have a lot of potential. She’s now in the barn of Phil D’Amato, and he hits at close to 20% with horses first time in his barn. Florent Geroux was named to ride, but unfortunately he is injured, so there will be a replacement rider.
#3 Little Red Frog
This filly by Munnings will also be making career start number two. She beat a field of 11 others at Churchill a few weeks ago. She was pretty professional in doing so. She had an outside post, a fairly wide trip, but still grinded out the tough victory. Eddie Kenneally is good with young horses, so I’d expect this horse to run another good race. Corey Lanerie will be back in the irons.
Race 6
#1 La Signare
This horse has faced some pretty good runners in her past. She has been off since March, so the layoff is a slight concern. Trainer Brendan Walsh is 21% with horses first time in his barn, and he’s 12% off the layoff. This filly did run well off a break last year here at Keeneland, and she’s run well fresh in the past. If she can fire her best shot today, she’ll have a say in this outcome. Tyler Gaffalione will ride, he and Walsh have been very successful together.
#7 East Moon
This girl is coming off of her best lifetime race. She won an allowance race at Saratoga in mid August. All of her turf route races have been good, so if you just handicap off those, she fits with this group. She should be able to stalk the pace and get a decent trip. It looks like Tyler Gaffalione decided to ride my top pick in here, so Brian Hernandez will ride this filly today. He and Rusty Arnold have been a productive duo.
#9 Our Bay B Ruth
This Candy Ride filly is really coming into her own right now. She’s won two in a row, and has shown versatility. Her maiden win was gate to wire, and her allowance win was a sweeping move from the back to the front. So no matter how the race shakes out, I think she’ll be able to adjust. She shows up and runs every time, and today she gets the hottest jockey around, Javier Castellano.
Race 7
#7 Complexifier
This guy has been improving with each and every start so far. He ran okay at Saratoga over the summer, and he most recently broke his maiden at Churchill last month. He’ll be facing winners for the first time, but I still think this colt has the best resume in the race. He gets a good outside post today, so I think he can stalk the pace. Julien Leparoux rode him in the maiden breaker, and he’s in the saddle again today.
#6 Letsstaypositive
This is actually a filly taking on the boys, which is not at all unusual for trainer Wesley Ward. In fact, this girl broke her maiden against the boys here at Keeneland in the spring. The problem is, she hasn’t raced at all since then. Ward can have them ready off a layoff, but I’ll probably play against her in this spot. I expect her to show speed. Tyler Gaffalione aboard.
Race 8
#7 My Boy Jack
I’m going to take a little shot with this guy. I think his last couple turf races have been okay, and that was a decent field he faced at Kentucky Downs last time. To no surprise, there isn’t much pace in this race. So I’m hoping jockey James Graham can at least have him mid pack in the early going, just a few lengths off the lead. This is mostly a field full of closers, so we’ll need a little luck and a clean trip. Keith Desormeaux trains.
#10 Marzo
This is mainly a pace angle. I think this gelding could be one of the speed players in here. His breeding would suggest that he might be alright at the distance, and trainer Mike Maker is no stranger to winning turf marathons. Again, with Florent Geroux being unable to ride, look for a replacement rider to be named. No matter who it is, I think this guy can be used in exotics at a price.
#5 Focus Group
This Chad Brown trainee is definitely the biggest name of the bunch. His last six starts have all been against graded stakes company. He only has one running style, which is drop to the back and make one big run. Because of that, I do think he might be worth taking a small shot against. He’s not a win machine, and he is very much trip and pace dependent. Jose Ortiz has the mount, and he is very familiar with this horse.
Race 9
#2 Poseidon’s Passion
This is not a very strong collection of maiden claimers. I’ll give this filly a look in the top spot. Her debut race at Arlington in August got a decent Beyer for the level, then last time just proved to be too far. I think the cutback will help, and hopefully she will settle a little better than last time. Trainer James Gulick doesn’t have a big stable, but he is 8 for 43 this year, so that’s nearly 20%. Sophie Doyle will be aboard.
#8 Heroic Officer
This is a homebred for the late, great Marylou Whitney. Her first start she really didn’t do any running, but she did wake up a little last time against that claiming group. She could actually be one of the pace players in here, because even though this is a sprint race, I do not see much early speed on paper. Ian Wilkes trains this one, and Julien Leparoux will ride. Julien is having a very nice meet so far.
#6 Our Lizzy Lou
This filly will also be making career start number three. They still appear to be trying to find the best distance for her. She ran kind of even going 6F on debut, but a mile seemed a little too far last time out. The cutback may help now that she has more fitness under her belt. Randy Morse trains, Miguel Mena will ride