Tampa Bay Downs: Friday, Jan. 18, 2019
Been sick as a dog this week, but I still got Friday’s card at TAM in. I did better last week (two winners), but I still have a long ways to go just to break even.
RACE 1: CLM $5,000N2Y, ONE-MILE 40 YARDS, DIRT, FILLIES AND MARES 4 YEARS OLD AND UP
#1. SACRED CANYON won last time out at this level and at this distance. Trainer Justin Johns bats a .22 winning percentage with horses that won last time out. Jockey Ronnie Allen gets the call and he has won a majority of Johns’ races the last two meets. Johns also owns this mare and he’s 11/42 .26 winning percentage and .57 ITM % with horses he owns. Beyers are improving too.
#2 DESCARDO placed ITM in six of her last seven races. She has competitive Beyers (all in the 50s) and is five-for-five at TAM. Jock-trainer combo (Ricardo Feliciano-Benny Feliciano) is also one of the best at this track.
#4. MY SOLITUDE also won last time out. It’s also trained by Justin Johns who’s an ace at winning second time out (see above). Beyers are lower than SACRED CANYON and DESCARDO, but worth a look. Jockey Pablo Morales is also (93 16 11 9 .17) at TAM this year.
#6. COLORINCOLONEL also won last time out and earned a high Beyer of 57. Don’t know much about trainer Al Lichoa, but leading jockey Samy Camacho is aboard, so that merits something. Could see a lot of chalk her way. She was the betting favorite her last two races.
MY PICKS: 1-6-2-4
RACE 2: CLM $12,500, 6 FURLONGS, DIRT, FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
Jockey Samy Camacho is aboard #2 RESIDENT. So that means something. Placed ITM in his last three races. Has respectable Beyers in high 60s. Trainer Gerard Ochoa is 27 .19 AVG. ROI $3.20 with horses coming off 31-60 day lay offs. Also 9 .22 AVG. $3.33 with horses that won again second time out.
#5. PHISH FAN is a consistently good runner. Trained by Tom Monte and ridden by Antonio Gallardo (148 27 30 21 .18), who’s having a great meet at TAM. Gelding place ITM in 11 of 12 races. Just lost last time out by a nose. He’ll be up there again to pick up the pieces. Hopefully a win.
#6. SINGANOTHERSONG has the best Beyers among all the entries (ranging from 74 to 86, all in sprint races). Trainer Jorge Navaro does well with horses coming racing second time off a 45-180-day layoff (118 .33 AVG. ROI $1.74) and even better when switching from turf to dirt (51 .35 AVG. ROI $1.48).
MY PICKS: 6-5-2
RACE 3: CLM $8,000N2L, MILE-AND-SIXTEENTH, DIRT, FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
#2. MUSTANG POWER placed in his last two races at TAM. Trainer/Owner Chad Stewart is 4/26 with a winning percentage of .15 and ITM of .42. Jockey Ademar Santos is his go-to jockey as well 4/32, winning percentage of .13 and ITM of .34. Not bad. Gelding is making his third start at TAM and Stewart does well after his horses ran twice at the race course 10/56 winning percentage .18 and ITM .46.
#4. PERFECT JOE has some consistently high Beyers but seems to be a hit-or-miss gelding. Daily Racing Form notes that trainer Carlos Silva is 17 .29 AVG ROI $3.20 with horses that won last time out.
#6. LIGHT BREEZE doesn’t stand out other than the fact the gelding won its first race two back. What’s intriguing is Samy Camacho will be riding for trainer Kathleen O’Connell. Let’s see if Camacho can shake things up with this horse. Watch the odds.
MY PICKS: 6-2-3
RACE 4: CLM $10,000, ONE MILE 40 YARDS, DIRT, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP
#3. ALL GOOD TIMES won last time out and finished third two back. Ran two back-to-back solid Beyers, 61 and 52. Looks strong compared to the other entries. The trainer-jock-owner combination of John Rigattieri-Pablo Morales-John Rigattieri and Stephan Derany is a good angle play as well.
#5 GINGERMORE also comes in here with solid Beyers in the 60s. Throw out her last race. She’ll bounce back in this one. Use in your exotics.
#6 STORMBEAM is intriguing. Trainer Nick Caruso is coming out with all the karma moves: First race after a claim, switching from a sprint to route (14 .29 AVG. ROI, a whopping $6.01!) and two sprint races to route race he’s batting .50 percent. Watch the odds. This horse could go off at a nice price.
#9 PATRIOTIC ENDEAVOR hasn’t made it yet to the winner’s circle, but she’s been very close. Mare has placed ITM in her last four races and her Beyers are consistently in the 60s. I like her chances as well in a very loaded field.
MY PICKS: 9-6 (boxed)- 3-5
RACE 5: MAIDEN $16,000, MILE AND A SIXTEENTH, TURF, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UP
Yeah, it’s the first race on turf for the day, but I’m still skipping this one. No one stands out and the majority of trainers are batting under .10 in the major categories. You can analyze this ‘til your blue in the face and still not come to any conclusions. Watch and enjoy!
RACE 6: MAIDEN $10,000, FIVE-AND-A-HALF FURLONGS, DIRT, FOUR-YEAR-OLD MAIDENS
Again, I’m gonna sit this one out for the same reasons I said above. It’s anyone’s race and in those races I usually skip so I can save money. Remember, you don’t have to bet every race. Exercise discipline. It’s good for you, LOL.
RACE 7: OC$32K/N2X, MILE AND ONE-SIXTEENTH, TURF, FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
The marquee race of the day. #3. MISSPENT YOUTH is a shipper from Kentucky, so he’s face tougher horses. He’s also done well up there. The gelding has Beyers in the low 80s, had one bad race two back, and placed ITM in several races. Notice he’s been two or less lengths off the winners. So he’s close. He’ll see lesser at TAM. I think he might slip under the radar.
#5. HUNTSTOWN is a shipper from Indiana. Gelding has done well in the Hoosier State, coming in second in a $150K stakes race on Nov. 6. Samy Camacho is riding too. Good shot it hits the board, IMO.
#9. HAPPY WANDERER, the turf specialist, placed fourth in her first race at TAM but also was two lengths behind the winner. Geldings Beyers look strong as well. Horse come from the Illinois circuit. Race better at AP this fall too.
#10. COLTRANE gets a second chance on the turf at TAM. Gelding faced tougher company in an OC$62K and faded. Goes down in class today and that should help.
#11. MUGGSAMATIC just missed the winner’s circle in his last two races. He lost by a neck last time out and by a nose two back. He ran a 92 Beyer last time out as well. Kathleen O’Connor is the trainer and Gallardo is back for the ride. I think this time he finally makes it to the winner’s circle.
MY PICKS: 11-3-10-9
RACE 8: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $27,000, SIX FURLONGS, DIRT, THREE-YEAR-OLDS
I like #4. SCORESWHENHEWANTS. Jockey Dan Centeno is aboard (96 18 11 33 .19) and trainer Arnaud Delacour is a maiden special weight specialist (83 .20 AVG. ROI $1.77). Colt posted a 61 Beyer in his first race and placed third. He’s the obvious favorite.
MY PICK: 4
That’s it for this week. Enjoy the snow!