Laurel Park Racing Analysis — Sunday, November 25, 2018, by Jeff Byrnes

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Race 1: CLAIMING $12,500 – $10,500   One Mile
Picks: 5-9-2
Forty Acres (#5): Returned off a three month layoff to finish 3rd at this level last time out. Trainer is 18% when second off the layoff. Horse has five straight top three finishes with two wins. Solid work pattern coming in, the horse is a must use. 
Candy Asset (#9): Won at the $16,000 level last time out, drops in class and will get pace to run at. Trainer is 11% in last out wins and 50% in claimer repeats. Gets leading rider Victor Carrasco aboard for first time. Will be tough.
Bob’s My Uncle (#2): Throw out last race, tried grass for the first time and hated it. Before that, he ran five straight top 3 finishes and has a win at the $12,500 level. Two back, he changed tactics and stalked the pace to win. Will be coming late. 
Race 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000 Six Furlongs
Picks: 2-4-7
Readytotapit (#2): Has run most consistent of this group and beat a few of these last out. Ran top 84 Beyer last out. Has speed and can beat this bunch. 
Lippi Lorenzo (#4): Drops from $50,000 to $25,000 level today. Will get pace to run at. Trainer is 13% with two year olds. Good jockey/trainer combination. 
Stormin Hongkong (#7): Was 3rd behind Readytotapit last time out. Good jockey /trainer combination. Has speed, and could be at the advantage from the outside. Live pick. 
Race 3: CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000 Six furlongs
Picks: 5-7-2
Final Fear (#5): Drops to #14,000 in the lowest level of his career. Has hit the superfecta in six straight races. Will have pace to run at. Beyer numbers biggest among the group. Must use.
Caruca (#7): Drops from optional $25,000 to $16,000 claiming today. Has plenty of speed to the outside and will use it. Trainer is 20% when second off the layoff and 23% claiming races. If he gets a clear lead, look out.
Angelinas Star (#2): Broke her maiden at the $16,000 level three starts back. Has speed to the inside and has hit the board in all four Laurel starts. Could be an upset chance.
Race 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000   5 1/2 Furlongs
Picks: 11-13-6
Oddseverinurfavor (#11): Is dropping to the lowest claiming level of her career. Her previous lowest was $16,000 where she was second three starts back. She can sit or go to the lead. Trainer is 13% when dropping two classes down. Worthy longshot pick.
Justanarch (#13): Has speed to far outside, was a winner at the $5,000 but was disqualified three starts back. Beyer numbers most consistent of the group. Trainer is 29% when dropping from maiden to maiden claiming. Must use on ticket. 
Animalistic (#6): The two best races of her career have come at this level, with a second and a third. Beyer numbers among biggest of the field. Will have pace to run at today. Big chance. 
Race 5: CLAIMING $5,000 Six Furlongs
Picks: 2-14-12
Slewzer (#2): Has won two of her last four starts and won at this level last time out. Trainer is 24% in claimer repeats and 23% with last out winners. She has speed and an inside draw to save ground and get a good trip. Has also beaten a few of these in here today. Must use. 
Queen to Checkmate (#14): Two back she won at the $5,000 level before running bad at the $16,000 level. Trainer is 35% when dropping two classes and 26% in sprints. 14 post hurts but se will be stalking the pace and can get first run. Great percentage on jockey/trainer.
Kid Croft (#12): In two races at the $5,000 level, she has a win and a second. Beyer speed figures among the best of the group. Leading rider Jorge Vargas Jr jumps in the saddle for the first time. 
Race 6: CLAIMING $5,000  Six Furlongs
Picks: 3–8-4
Andrew’s Game (#3): Makes his Laurel debut and drops to lowest level in career. Trainer is 22% with horses second off the claim. Throw out Charles Town race, he did not like the bull ring. Before that he was facing tougher at Churchill Downs. Ran an 84 beyer three starts back. Upset chance. 
Swing Step (#8): Drops from $16,000 to $5,000 level today. Trainer is 11% third off the layoff. Will have pace to run at. Must stay clear to avoid trouble. 
Disco Express (#4): In the trifecta in all three starts at the $5,000 level. Pace will be in front of him and he will stalk. Beyer numbers among biggest of the group. 
Race 7:  CLAIMING $12,500 – $10,500 One mile 
Picks: 6-3-8
Salinger (#6): In five straight races he has run beyer figures of 74 or higher. Trevor McCarthy is back aboard and has the most success with him, with three starts and a win and a second. Drops in class. Trainer is 21% in sprints to routes. Big chance. 
Bay Hill (#3): Won a $25,000 claimer here two starts back and now drops to $12,500 today. Can sit off the pace and get first run. Good jockey/ trainer combination. 
Sandy Lane (#8): Returns to dirt after unsuccessful try on turf. If track comes sloppy, could be advantage. Only win came over sloppy track. Trainer is 20% with drop off claims. 
Race 8: CLAIMING $25,000 Six furlongs 
Picks: 4-7-3 
Wild Rider (#4): Has run Beyer speed figures of 84 or above in five straight races. Won at this level four starts back. Trevor McCarthy is back aboard to make this a huge plus. Has three wins in off track in case it’s sloppy. Must use. 
Bust Another (#7): Makes second start off five month layoff, where trainer is 20% off the layoff. Outside post will give him advantage to use speed. Beyer numbers in high eighties and nineties among last four races. Has four on the board finishes on off tracks. 
Cobh (#3): Won at this level two starts back with a 97 beyer number. Stumbled at the start last race and lost all chance. Trainer is 20% with horses third off the layoff. That win two back was in the slop. Weston Hamilton having great meet. Upset chance. 
Race 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000  Seven Furlongs 
Picks: 7-5-2
Star Seed Child (#7): The meets leading rider and trainer team up with this horse dropping from maiden $40,000 to $25,000 claiming. Trainer is 34% with second start horses and 42% with maiden to maiden claiming. She has turned in stellar works and could be best bet of the day. 
Oxhilirating (#5): Drops to maiden claiming in second career start. Trainer is 18% in first time maiden claiming. Also get blinkers for first time. Good jockey/ trainer combination. Has speed and can stalk. 
Brushing (#2): Returned off a ten month layoff to finish 5th at this level. I see him improving in her second start off layoff. Trainer is 12% with second off the layoff horses. The addition of Trevor McCarthy is a plus. Will get pace to run at, and will be flying late
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