(All selections are made for FAST & FIRM conditions. Follow me on Twitter for adjustments to the Fair Value Odds line after scratches.)
Value Capping, in a nutshell, is the art of selecting horses that you like, that the public shouldn’t, preferably running against flawed favorites. If 1 or 2 runners of your choices meet the Fair Odds line, consider a win bet & key-boxing them with the field in exactas. Horses are listed in preferential order. More weight needs to be given to those at the top of the list when considering risk to reward. If more than 2 runners exceed their Value, I recommend passing on the race. Remember, betting every race (save for a recreational wager) is financial suicide! Wait for your price and learn to develop a sense about the wager ‘feeling right’ before pulling the trigger. Never feel pressured into betting a race. There are plenty of races each day from which to choose from! I’ve graded the horses A – C for those of you that prefer multi-race wagers and use a tool such as DRF Ticketmaker to structure your bets.
RACE 1
Certainly, everyone’s attention will be on the major Derby prep races, but it’s days like these that you can find value off the beaten path. The opener at Tampa may provide just that as there are plenty of contenders with no standouts.
5 – High Multiple (3/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 10/1
2 – To Your Health (9/2) A ….. 14/1
6 – Blessed At Mass (2/1) A ….. 10/1
3 – Smart But Foolish (5/1) B ….. 12/1
7 – My Charming Clyde (6/1) B ….. 13/1
8 – Great Plan (10/1) C ….. 15/1
RACE 2
Not much pace pressure projected for this sprint and leading trainer Gerald Bennett sends out the favorite who has the best early pace figures of the group while making his 3rd start off a layoff.
4 – Parrkaveli (2/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/2
2 – Early Deligh (5/1) B ….. 6/1
7 – Fog Warning (5/2) B ….. 11/1
8 – Hebgone (8/1) C ….. 20/1
RACE 3
Camacho rides the favorite for Bennett, and she’ll offer no value in a short field. I would tread lightly when trying to beat her, but again, we’ll let the odds determine what we do. The 5 making her 3rd start off the layoff interests me as she may be the best ‘value’ on the board. Perfectly willing to pass if we don’t get our price.
2 – Silly Factor (7/5) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1
3 – Drinks On Maggie (9/2) A ….. 7/1
6 – All Good Times (2/1) B ….. 8/1
5 – Pure Blarney (12/1) B ….. 7/1
RACE 4
Unless one of the first-time starters step up in a big way, this looks like a 2-horse race that offers little value. Maybe a recreational bet on one or both of the (well-bred) firsters, but another race I’m willing to pass.
8 – Irish Mail (7/5) A ….. Fair Value Odds 7/2
6 – Zumbya (7/2) A ….. 6/1
1 – Kiss the Spider (8/1) C ….. 25/1
5 – Archipelago (12/1) C ….. 30/1
2 – Not Necessarily (5/1) C ….. 25/1
RACE 5
First-time starter Good Morning Jack goes for top connections off a solid work tab. 4yo son of Adios Charlie should be good enough to beat these, but always stay open to what the board is giving you and make your plays accordingly.
6 – Good Morning Jack (4/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/2
1 – Togie (5/2) A ….. 5/1
2 – Warhavoc (10/1) B ….. 19/1
3 – Courting Moonlight (5/1) B ….. 12/1
7 – Luis Two Guns (15/1) C ….. 50/1
9 – Discreet Man (12/1) C ….. 50/1
RACE 6
Interesting race to watch, not so much for value players. The public should have this one pegged, but we’ll see if one of our horses can drift into our price zone.
4 – Hardly Mate (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 5/1
1 – Ordinary Love (3/1) A ….. 7/1
7 – Solarte (7/2) A ….. 8/1
6 – Sugar Cane Girl (4/1) B ….. 13/1
RACE 7
Perfect Pitch returned from a layoff and turned in her best pace figures. She was claimed in that event, was given some time and now returns at a significantly higher level (yet well below the level she had been facing.) Confident move by new connections. Aside from her, the race is wide-open so demand your price.
2 – Perfect Pitch (5/2) A ….. Fair Value Odds 9/1
1 – Kinky Sox (4/1) B ….. 14/1
7 – Cape Laa Di Da (3/1) B ….. 13/1
4 – Showboating (10/1) C ….. 15/1
9 – Shimmyshimmy Shake (6/1) C ….. 14/1
3 – Turko Treat (15/1) C ….. 15/1
6 – Music and Lyrics (8/1) C ….. 16/1
RACE 8
Plenty of contenders but most are low odds. We’ll wait and see how the betting goes. Remember, don’t force anything. If you’re getting your price on a horse that’s at or near the bottom of your contenders, be cautious. (They’re at the bottom for a reason!)
6 – Mas Chikilin (2/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 6/1
7 – Homefield (5/2) A ….. 6/1
5 – Bear Field (5/1) A ….. 6/1
4 – Elzabe’s On Board (9/2) B ….. 10/1
1 – Saison (15/1) C ….. 20/1
8 – Community Court (20/1) C ….. 20/1
9 – Fran’s Worrier (20/1) C ….. 55/1
3 – U.S. Coast Guard (12/1) C ….. 60/1
RACE 9
An absolutely wide-open turf event with a vulnerable favorite! Not to worry. We don’t have to try to pick a winner, but rather look for the value among the contenders. The only problem is that it’s so wide-open, with almost every horse a contender, it may produce more than 2 value plays. If that’s the case, simply pass the race.
10 – Giacallure (8/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 13/1
3 – Great Harbour Cay (3/1) A ….. 15/1
8 – Geh Schnell (15/1) A ….. 12/1
7 – Croce d’Oro (9/2) B ….. 14/1
1 – Japonski (5/1) B ….. 17/1
4 – American Deluxe (15/1) B ….. 18/1
6 – General Macarthur (15/1) C ….. 19/1
5 – Blarp (7/2) C ….. 20/1
RACE 10
Another wide-open race that presents plenty of opportunities to find value. The 7 with Camacho looks like the one to beat and is a possible single in your multi-race wagers (if you need to tighten up your tickets.) No matter what, in a race such as this, I’m going to demand value. As a matter of recommendation, both Pick 5 sequences look very good on the card!
7 – Naughty Girl (4/1) A ….. Fair Value Odds 8/1
3 – Happy Lady (5/2) B ….. 16/1
9 – War Beauty (5/1) B ….. 13/1
4 – Juanandora (6/1) B ….. 15/1
2 – Toki (5/1) B ….. 14/1
11 – Grandmary (10/1) C ….. 15/1
8 – Legacy Girl (6/1) C ….. 45/1
Best of Luck!
@LightningJay_