As I write this on Friday evening, there is no rain in the forecast for Hallandale Beach Saturday or Sunday. Let’s hope so, because the card is tremendous on Sunday.
Race 1:
#14 Knokke By the Sea 8-1 ML (AE)
#3 Direct Approach 5-1 ML
#9 Karamchand 12-1 ML
#7 Montt 7-2 ML
#14 Knokke By the Sea will need a few scratches to draw into this field, but has good win early pedigree, has good turf pedigree, an goes for a trainer who does well first time out in the turf in maiden claiming races. In a race with a dearth of talent, this one should have a good shot he draw in. If Knokke by the Sea does not go, I will have to side with #3 Direct Approach, as this one took money FTO for a trainer who doesn’t win many in the initial try. After not doing any running, Serpe will drop, stretch out, and switch to the turf, all while retaining the services of leading rider Luis Saez.
Race 2:
#4 Candy Max 2-1 ML
#3 Rigo 15-1 ML
#1 Cape Marco Drive 7-2 ML
#4 Candy Max looks fastest in here, and has the foundation after tiring at a mile last time out.
Race 3:
#3 Federal Case 6-5 ML
#1 Moonster 5-2 ML
#4 French Revolution 6-1 ML
#3 Federal Case won FTO for Rodolphe Brisset who usually does not have them cranked FTO. Now switches to the Pletcher barn, and while Todd has had his problems with his two year olds so far this year, he still wins at a nice clip 2nd time out (31%). This one is cut out to be a good one as a 650k purchase and with any step forward should be able to handle this field.
Race 4:
#5 Return the Favor 6-1 ML
#8 Gran Bonita Chica 1-1 ML
#6 Si Te Vas 9-2 ML
#5 Return the Favor returned off the nearly three month layoff last time out and flopped as a big longshot. Takes a step down the class ladder and should be more fit 2nd time off the freshening. I also like that this one has a win over the Gulfstream park surface, while his two other rivals have done their best running out of town at GPW.
Race 5:
#7 Chatiment 20-1 ML
#2 Hollywood Strike 6-1 ML
#6 Raising the Flag 9-2 ML
#7 Chatiment has been laid up for 7 months, so obviously something went amiss, but this one ran some nice races toward the end of the championship meet last year. You will want to demand a price here, and based on the relatively low profile connections, this one should provide good value. You will always get 110% out of Juarez, and this will be the trainer’s first start of the year.
Race 6:
#9 Stock Trade 9-2 ML
#7 Gemologister 30-1 ML
#5 Exprompt (FR) 8-1 ML
#9 Stock Trade is the most consistent horse in here, producing beyer figures ranging from 74-80 in his last six starts. The only run at 7.5 furlongs on the grass resulted in a 4th place finish here last April, but this horse has improved, albeit slightly, since then and should provide a good account of himself.
Race 7:
#3 Bodexpress 20-1 ML
#7 Glory of Florida 3-1 ML
#6 Overdeliver 6-1 ML
#3 Bodexpress didn’t have much luck first time out of the box, but took some money in the debut, and did have some trouble at the start, while racing wide throughout. Positive jock switch from Paco to Saez for start 2, and Delgado has nice numbers 2nd time out (22%). I did find the #7 Glory of Florida very interesting, as this one has been working lights out for a guy in Sano who’s horses usually need a trip or two. I’d watch the board closely here, as this one is another son of Dialed In who could be Sano’s next Gunnevera.
Race 8:
#3 Clear for Action 8-1 ML
#2 Teryn it Up 4-1 ML
#7 Bail Out 7-2 ML
Not very enthused with any of the horses that have raced over the turf in here, so I’ll side with the potent Gaffalione/Maker team first time turf #3 Clear for Action after primarily racing on the synthetic at Woodbine. Maker has good numbers with this type of move (1st time turf 16%, synthetic to turf 24%) and this one should appreciate the surface switch and distance out of English Channel.
Race 9:
#8 Grace’s Drama 3-1 ML
#1 Queens Quarters 7-2 ML
#5 Cuckoo Cania 15-1 ML
I think this race runs through two of the trainers who dominate the claiming game in Florida, Victor Barboza and Gilberto Zerpa. I will side with #8 Grace’s Drama, who was going very well against similar before trying claiming crown competition. Barboza does well with 2nd off the layoff horses (24%) and should find the return to 6250 claimers to her liking.
Race 10:
#7 Souper Escape 10-1 ML
#4 Early Time 6-1 ML
#2 Comic Kitten 5-1 ML
#7 Souper Escape goes first time turf for Michael Trombetta, in off an impressive maiden score going a mile on the dirt at Laurel. This one cut out some fast fractions and pulled away to win comfortably that day, but out of Medaglio D’Oro and a Street Cry mare should find the turf even more to his liking.
Race 11:
#9 Paradise Retained 6-1 ML
#3 Lady Grace 2-1 ML
#1 Holly Hundy 20-1 ML
Jason Servis is in one of his grooves where he is moving horses up many lengths at Gulfstream Park (9 for his last 19 as I type this) and #9 Paradise Retained ran a respectable 2nd up at Saratoga. Servis excels with these types of layoffs (30%) and I won’t be trying to beat him here. The 6-1 ML isn’t happening, but I’ll take 5-2 if we can. I would throw the #1 Holly Hundy into your exotics if playing tris and exactas here. Mary Lightner is a small barn but she does relatively well with first timers, this one cost 180k at auction, and she attracts Saez. I would be shocked to see this one go off close to 20-1, but follow the board accordingly for clues if this one is a runner.
Good luck!