Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski returning here for another Stronach Pick 5! Last week saw us losing $81 and I was irritated since we had all the horses for it, but the 9th at Gulfstream, I left that 7 out which cost us. The single in the last leg was rough, and the favorite won, but we knew it. This is an instance where ticket construction beat me. Let’s return this week though and get a win and some money on the board. The one thing you need in horse racing is a short-term memory. There will be bad beats and good beats, but it is the nature of the horizontal player.
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer- I’d love to hear feedback or comments on your thoughts on the races!
Laurel R8 3:49pm EST Allowance Optional $35k, 4 YO & Up 6.5F on Dirt.
Nice little field here and there are few ways to go. Appears to be some early pace here and if a duel ensures, it really opens it up for the closers which are the 4 and 6 primarily. Must figure the horse that gets on the lead here early will not be the first to cross the line. Think this race has a few horses coming in on good form, but I want to try and stay skinny to save costs for later.
8 MARCO ISLAND- Won last out for Trevor McCarthy in a pretty par performance for the horse. Mark Reid is doing decently lately, and the horse was steady in 2019. Going to be an obvious favorite, and depending on your feelings of horses later, could be a single.
5 WORKING ON A DREAM- Lightly raced horse and had a good work pattern before last out off the layoff. Hard to see a pattern on this horse that indicates any type of form given the inconsistent running. Could be injuries or other issues, but if the horse runs like it did in March or February 2019- probably wins easy here.
9 CERULEAN SPRINGS- This is more of a connections play for me than anything. Marilyn McMullen has a positive ROI over the Last 365 days and that is the same for Laurel and Dirt Sprints. Couple that with Forest Boyce on the mount- who is a positive rider for McMullen and we have a profitable combo that could show us intentions on this horse. 2 Back was a career type of performance for the horse at a slightly higher purse level, then regressed a bit last out. Its obvious the November performance took something out of the horse. Returns now after 3 weeks rest and could be in a well place spot to win for us today.
I should mention W W SPRINGTIME- Last out flopped badly and a career worst performance, tiring at 6F in the slop. This horse should be competitive today, but recent workout patterns confuse me, and I question what the connections intentions are here.
Santa Anita R1 4:00pm EST Maiden Special Weight $55k, 4 YO & Up, 5.5 on Turf
Nice light turf sprint to start the day for us at Santa Anita- small field though but it does not surprise considering. A lot of horses here off long layoffs that I feel comfortable fading so going to keep this race narrow. Only the 1 MALIBU CAT for Mark Glatt is positive off a layoff but there are other options. None of these horses can run at a PAR level for this race at Santa Anita, so there no real stand outs, but we have to take an opinion somewhere so, today I choose to fade the layoff horses.
7 RANEEM- Race 12 days ago on dirt for a payday, but I really like the race 2 and 3 back on turf for this horse. Add in Van Dyke on the mount for Baffert and I think we can assume intentions. Horse will be short so probably a logical single.
2 DANCE COSTUME- This is a first-time starter for Tim Yakteen with Joel Rosario aboard. With Yakteen, Joel is huge at a 4.32 ROI with 4 wins in 5 tries on turf. Hard to overlook intentions and readiness for this firster. The only knock I can come up with is Union Rags offspring are only winning about 3% of their first starts on Turf, and only 10% on Dirt. Not the best on the sire side for young runners on turf, but the Dam Costume Designer by Capote has the grass stats to make up for it.
Gulfstream Park R9 4:38PM EST, Allowance Optional $51k, 4 YO & Up, 8 F On Dirt
Nice big field here and need to be wide it feels like to cover this race. On quick glance if you want to stay narrow perhaps something like 1-3-4 cover you but, I will not be that narrow here. Not a ton of early speed in this route, so I do not expect a crazy pace setup which is unfortunate.
4 BLEWITT- I like this horse and think the horse is the fastest in the field, but 279 days is a huge layoff to come back from. What I do like is Johnny V stays aboard and knows the horse. No huge trainer and jockey angles here from a layoff perspective but sometimes a horse just has the class to win.
3 KID BOURBON- Last out at Aqueduct horse ran on good dirt and got into the winner’s circle. Tough to play a horse who is facing winners for the first time, but raw speed, the horse seems to have. Not a huge fan of Saez back on the mount, but as long as he lets the horse rate as he as shown to prefer, should be able to sit the pocket trip and win.
2 EKHTIBAAR- This horse appears to have a declining form pattern, but this is 2nd of the layoff and goes into Navarro’s barn for the 2nd start. Navarro has a way of getting horses to run gamely and huge and if this horse can get back to how it ran in the summer of 2019- I would hate to lose to it. I do think the horse ends up shorter than the 8-1 ML but with the connection of Navarro and Paco Lopez- that will not surprise anyone.
Horses that I might cover with but don’t like are 7- GRIT AND GLORY who if runs back to like he did at Saratoga can win, but recent form suggests that to be unlikely. The 1 GUMP and has shown to have speed to win at this level and very well could be competitive, but it seems like the horse has a form cycle that is not ready to win today.
Golden Gate R3 4:47pm EST Claiming $5k, 4 YO & Up, 5.5F on Synthetic
This is a nice little field that has some speed and some pressers. Considering it’s a short little sprint, no surprise here. I do not think the race sets up well the for the 7 CANDY CREW as the horse has been running off the pace lately,
4 POWER TIMES TWO- Last out the horse ran a best number for it after coming to this distance. Did the horse and connections finally figure it out or was it an anomaly. I am narrow early in this sequence and I think it will help me here, to include this horse as a just in case.
7 CANDY CREW- I like this horse and appears to have the most speed in the field, but the last 2 races the horse has come from off the pace. This race does not feel to set up for that but would be bad to include and lose to this situation. Horse has been getting faster in every start since returning to action in October, if this horse is going to win, this might be the best shot.
2 BILL’S HAPPY HOUR- This horse is coming in on a price and long term the form cycle has been declining. I do not think this horse wins today, but with over a month off and again, 2nd off a layoff, hard to not include here today.
8 HOT N’ FAMOUS- Excuse the last out ride from the layoff and looking further back, the horse has won at higher levels and is not a career loser like many in this field with 2 ins in 5 starts. We can perhaps blame conditioning for the effort on December 15th and look for the horse to be ready today. Workout pattern still suspect but if the were easing the horse back into action last out, then today could find a good price for us.
Gulfstream Park R10 5:10PM EST Allowance Optional, $16k, 4 YO & UP, 5F on Turf
Time to get paid for this sequence. This race stands to have quite a bit of pace and it will be interesting to see if any scratches change this situation. If it was longer, I would have to include the 1,3,4 as off the pace types, but I don’t think the race melts that far for them.
6 RICHIE’S SISTER- This horse has been up and down, running and laid off and is tough to know what we get today. Combination of Servis and Irad tells me this horse is game today. Unfortunately, the tell-tale for that, is going to be bet down heavy. I hate the workout pattern, but Servis is unorthodox with the patterns telling that this horse is ready. Good or bad favorite is yet to be seen but would have to lose in the last leg to the chalk. Horse is fast enough to win today.
7 GLORY ROLL- If the 6 doesn’t show up, this horse is sitting well with a pretty obvious form cycle occurring. If it repeats this horse should be right up front early and could win. At 10-1 ML I really like this horse and if odds hold, it could even be a win bet for me.
8 SWEET YARE N DIRA- Horse is 2nd off a layoff here and last out wasn’t a very good race. Saffie Joseph has been winning decently lately though and this has has ran fast enough in the past to win. If the pattern for Joseph to win off a layoff continues, then obviously this horse is a must use.
9 MISS AURAMET- Here is a layoff horse I can get behind. Been off for 344 days but comes back with Paco Lopez on the mount and the trainer, Edward Plesa Jr, is decent off the layoff for a 1.5 ROI. Only 6/42 though so without knowing much, must have had a good price get int. Horse adds blinkers today and has a good workout pattern in December/November of 2019. Will be very interesting to see how the horse comes out today with a good price.
My Play
This sequence feels like it could chalk out, so I am trying to be cost efficient in this play. The ticket I constructed is $64. This is pretty cheap for the sequence, and I may not have the best coverage, but if this sequence goes chalky, I would hate to be too deep. If you prefer cheaper options, I think singling the Baffert in the 2nd Leg or the Servis in the last leg would be decent wagering spots to single here and play something like a $16 with 2 singles or $32 with 1 single!!
R1- 8,9
R2- 2,7
R3- 3,4
R4- 4,8
R5- 6,7,8,9
Good luck today everyone!