Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski returning here for another Stronach Pick 5!! For the 4 weeks I have done this we are 1:5 but +$728. I got blown up last week in what ended up being a much tougher sequence with some nice prices. Went 3:5 on it but in all fairness, it did pay $19k for $1.
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer- I’d love to hear feedback or comments on your thoughts on the races!
Laurel R8 3:50PM EST Maiden Claiming $5k 8F on Dirt
Well here we go, a decent sized field to start this sequence off.
5 CALADAN- This horse is going to be short and could be a good spot to try and single to stay wider later in the sequence. Hard part here is I don’t love this horse but has enough positives I cannot toss. Farrior has been good off the claim at 25%, so I am going to trust that he saw something there and can capitalize.
7 UNEQUIVOCAL-Last out the horse ran well on muddy dirt for 8F. Returns today for Wayne Potts with Ruiz aboard who won last out with him. At a 6/1 ML in a race that is just ok, I think we give it a shot.
Gulfstream Park R7 4:03PM EST AO-Claiming $16k 8F on Turf for Fillies and Mares
4 TRILBY- Edgar Prado here for Hess Jr. and this horse has been running well coming into today. Won last 2 trips and keeps getting claimed. People like this horse and I see why.
5 LOVELY LUVY- Jose has not been able to get her to the winner’s circle but this is odd considering this will be the 3rd start since entering Navarro’s barn. Think this female is one to watch today. I am a little hesitant because the workout pattern that is published, I don’t like but I think the price here will help especially with me hating the favorite as I do.
3 HERE COMES JACKIE- Include or not include is the question here. Castellano is not my favorite jockey at GP, but this horse ran well last out just couldn’t finish. Appears to be rounding into the right spot for a win today, hopefully the price helps us out a little bit.
Golden Gate R3 3:44PM EST Claiming $8K 5.5 F on Synthetic
3 AALSMEER- Horse has done decent on synthetic but has been somewhat declining it feels like. Does the change to Desormeaux help or hurt today? I want to say hurt and toss but would hate to lose the sequence that way. I will let the sequence tell me how to play this race for coverage reasons.
1 GOING AWAY PARTY- ML Favorite and only been raced 14 times. A slight regression last out, could be because of the jockey change but returns to Hernandez today. When coupled with Calvario they make money and at a track like Golden Gate that is important to watch.
6 KING EDDIE- I want to include but was a steward scratch and then subject to a cancelled race. Form pattern is hit or miss with the horse either being ready and running huge or flopping lately. Which way it goes today must be seen. I think I let this horse beat me today.
4 CANADA- First time trying the synthetic and is going to be a big price. Good workout pattern happening and there is a good chance this horse is primed for today. Howey is winning 20% at Synthetic sprints so hard to pass up this price play here.
Santa Anita R4 4:29PM EST Claiming $16k 5.5F on Turf for Fillies & Mares
This field does not seem to be as close as initially thought on paper. There are probably a few that stand out that I can sneak by with.
1 NAUGHTY SOPHIE- Huge layoff here but the workouts are pretty good and worth a shot. 5/1 ML for Sierra with Tiago Pereira aboard. Risky play but the workouts make me feel more comfortable with it.
2 EMMY AND I- Interesting angle here, horse was coming from a layoff and went to Los Al for quarter horse workout race and won. Ok so how does that help us- early speed, sure. Fits well today I think and if can stay close early, can win today.
7 LOVE A HONEYBADGER-I don’t know what to make of this favorite today. Last out looked horrible but hopped the start, so perhaps we can forgive. At 9/5 ML hard to say yes, I must have this horse today, but doesn’t feel like a horrible favorite to try and fade.
Gulfstream Park R10 5:33PM EST Maiden Claiming $25k 8F on Turf for Fillies
Before scratches this is a great looking race, and one that I think you want to be covered in several deep. There is a good chance that I go narrower early on in this sequence to maintain coverage here but let’s look.
4 KAYSERI-Adds blinkers today for Mark Casse who is winning at 16% when he does this. Pedigree here fits well for the turf route and Tyler has been doing decent this meet. A must use here.
1 GEA-Irad on the rail at Gulfstream. I am not a huge fan of this but- I dug deeper and found that the rail is 1/16 in the last month. So that confirms my suspicion. I trust Irad more than I trust this stat, so I am going to ignore it and include here. She has run well and last out seemed to never really be in the race. Will have no choice but to engage here at the rail.
9 QUEEN LETIZIA- First time filly from Queen of Oz and Khozan who have been winning about 15% for their firsters. Couple that with Joel Ortiz who is 1-1 for Barboza Jr. and I am not sure how I can leave this horse off.
8 POLISHED COPPER- Ran ok as a 2-year-old with about average start last month to start the 3-year-old campaign. Good chance the horse needed that race to be ready to go and returns today in what should be better conditioning. Dam is putting out winners on the turf when they try it for a 2nd time and she gets LUIIIS SAEEZ today!
My Play
This feels like a big sequence and I am going to try and build this ticket for a decent cost as I usually do.
R1- 5,7
R2-4,5
R3-1,3,4
R4-1,2,7
R5-1,4,8,9
Total cost today is $144.00. I am still contemplating going single, single to start this sequence out. If you want to play and don’t want to drop $144 for a ticket. I think singling the 5 in either R1 or R2 could be a great way to save some money if you like them enough. I am not completely sold on either entry, so I am willing to pay a little bit extra ticket costs to not lose my mind.
This sequence is another great example of why people bet A/B/C Structure as you can maximize the 5 in either of the early legs and maybe play a 1.5x ticket going single single and still allowing yourself sanity coverage with the other horses as B’s.