Woodbine Race 3: The G3 Ontario Fashion, F/M, 6 Furlongs
1. Sav: She has been the model of consistency, hitting the board in 12 of 14 career starts. She makes her fourth start of the year, improving in each of her last three. I’m looking for her to it a good trip, just off the early lead. She’ll need to take another step forward and I like her chances to do that.
2. Victory Kingdom: This Australian bred filly is an absolute wild card in here. She took some play in her only North American start, which was an off the turf stakes race at Saratoga. Her form in Australia was better in the early part of 2019, but she tailed off in the second half of the year. She’s not impossible, but there are plenty of question marks.
3. Painting: The morning line favorite has a speed figure and class advantage over her five foes. She’s been second in her last four tries in graded stakes company. She’ll need some pace to close in to, and even then, I think she’s a little risky as a win candidate at a short price. I think she needs to be on the horizontal and vertical wagers, but she’s not a definitive single in my eyes.
4. Tomlin: She was most recently was second in an off the turf stakes race at Churchill. Her turf and synthetic form are decent, as she’s recently won a listed turf sprint stakes at Golden Gate. However, I think she’s not quite as good as some of the others in here, and if she goes off near her 3-1 morning line, I’ll be looking to beat her.
5. Sister Peacock: She’s your likely pacesetter in here, as she helped to carve out solid fractions in her last two starts. Painting finished in front of her last time, but that was at 7 Furlongs. She’s 2-2 at this distance today, and while Sav, will keep her honest, I think she’ll get an easier trip and turn the tables on the favorite today.
6. Magic Spell: She’s been battling in the same optional claiming/allowance conditions for a while, and now takes a step up, despite not really moving forward at that lower level. Sav has beaten her in her last three starts, and figures to finish in front of her again. If I’m searching for a longshot, I’d roll the dice on the Australian filly before her.
My Picks: 5-1-3