What a blunder last week was! Today we look to avoid the rain and get back on the winning side! As you will all learn, I am not interested in top pick percentage or place and show wagers. My results will be posted every week showing the ROI of my top pick for each race that I send based upon a $2 win bet on my top choice. I will also recap my Play of the Day every week including how much was wagered ($15 max), amount won or lost, and running ROI for the Play of the Day.
I will also be breaking my Saratoga maiden this weekend for Whitney Weekend! I am going with my dad and some of my best horse racing friends I have met since I began capping, @Scatdaddybrad and @KatieOsbornKTO. Give them a follow as well and let me know if you’d like to meet up! If I am winning, I will even buy you a beer! If I am not, you can bank on @Scatdaddybrad having every winner so he will buy for you!
If you ever have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to me or shoot me a follow on twitter @BobbiNiggi
Good Luck today and let’s get some prices home!
*** All plays are listed for fast and firm. I will try to update should changes arise.
Week 2 Results
Top Choice ($2 to win)
Total Wagered- $18 Total Return-$0 ROI -100%
YTD Results
Total Wagered- $34 Total Return- $48.80 ROI- 43%
Play of the Day Results ($15 max wager)
Week 2
Total Wager- $15 Total Return- $0 ROI -100%
YTD
Total Wager– $25 Total Return- $64.80 ROI 159%
Race 1- (7,1,4)
Starting this race off with some presumed chalk. I landed on Keota here for a few reasons. First of all, Servis and Lezcano cant be ignored. Lezcano is riding extremely well right now and he stays on Keota even after this long layoff. The work pattern looks a little suspect to me but it is Servis so that is to be expected. I think this girl sits right off the pace and clears late running down Saez and the 8 who don’t look to have enough fitness.
Race 2 (8,5,2)
First off the claim for Gullo is always a solid angle. Add in the jockey upgrade from Irat to Saez and we have a live runner. LTO, this filly left us a little more to be desired but I think she fits this race well. Gullo has been having a VERY good meet and I look for this gal to stalk behind the 3 and clear late. Great post, hottest trainer, hottest jockey, and a slight cutback in distance should make her your winner.
Race 3 (3,9,1)
I am going to take a shot this race. Risky Mischief and some others are sure to take money but I landed on the 3, Mrs. Phelps. There is a lot to like here for me. Vega is 2-5 all time at the Spa with only one FTS and guess who rode it? My man Kendrick. The historical success, although small sample size, makes me believe that Vega gets his horses live and points for the Spa. Mrs. Phelps is also bred very well and has a lot of win early pedigree on the dam side. This will likely be my play of the day. If I can get anywhere near the ML on this debut runner, I will be making a big bet.
Race 4 (2,7,5)
Going back to back here with another price. Donk has been getting a little warmer after his rough start in the east coast. Sterling Beauty finally gets back to the distance where she has done her best work and showed the most. She also gets a massive jockey upgrade to Jose in this spot. The pace should heat up a bit today she should sit in a perfect spot to clear late.
Race 5 (9,4,3)
Theme of the day is TOUGH. Big race here as it ends the early Pick 5 and begins the carryover Pick 6. I am going to use the @scatdaddybrad method of handicapping here for my top selection. I didn’t like any of the other horses, so I landed on #9. The pedigree on the dam side doesn’t suggest much here, but it also doesn’t suggest much for any of the other horses on turf in this race. I landed here because I thought the first two tries the 9 had were very respectable. Didn’t look bad in either start and was very slow out of the gate first time out. Franco is going to need to get going to get this one home, but this would be my best guess as the winner in this race. The Ward horses can obviously both win as well but I didn’t love their dam pedigree and Ward has been less than spectacular this year outside of Keeneland.
Race 6 (7,4,6)
Second of the back to back baby races brings another tough one. I saw a lot of horses who I could make a case for in this spot, but ultimately landed on #7. The mare is out of Arch who I have always been a sucker for and the siblings are 3-6 sprinting 6F or less on the dirt. The dam was also 1-1 as a 2 year old so the win early pedigree is clearly there. 2nd dam also won as a FTS. I like the work pattern heading into this and Assmussen and Santana know how to win first out.
Race 7 (3,1,2)
Christ. Not getting any easier. I had a bit of trouble figuring out the pace dynamic in this race having not seen the CB overseas shipper run. From everything I have looked at, it makes me think this one wants to big longer. It is hard not to respect these horses when CB ships them over. Ultimately, I went with #3. Kreesie should be fairly far back but I have a feeling 2 is going to get sent and get into a duel with the 1 and set some quick fractions. If that does happen, I want my money on the Donk runner. Said no one ever at Saratoga. But really, that’s my top choice. Jose gets the mount here and this filly has been respectable in quite a few nice races that came back strongly. I think she has the best closing foot and if it heats up, this horse has a huge chance. *Insert Chad Brown by 12 in hand
Race 8 (11,10,5)
The deeper I get into this pick 6 sequence, the tougher I realize it truly is. This is another race where I could make a case for quite a few horses. Ultimately, I landed on #11. The first thing that stuck out to me watching the replays was how game this horse looked two back. He was passed and then rallied again and showed some serious grit. I love seeing that in a horse. Although her last two races were both out of the money, they were deceptively good races IMO. I see this horse sitting 1 or two back off the lead and getting a perfect stalking trip in what shouldn’t be too fast of a pace. Having the hottest pilot in America right now surely wont hurt our cause either.
Race 9 (2,1,3)
This stakes race did not come up near as tough as I thought it would. There doesn’t appear to be much speed at all, so I am landing on Mr. Inconsistent, Talk Vueve To Me. For those of you who follow my articles on Wednesdays, you know I was against this horse two weeks ago when he lost as an 8/5 favorite. What changed? Well, not much except for the pace dynamic. I don’t fully trust this horse and his inconsistencies, but a return to near top form should win this race in wire to wire fashion. The other main contenders are the 1 and the 3 but I don’t see them being forwardly placed enough. Should they be near the front and we somehow get some pace, those would be my first choice. However, I don’t see any sort of pace duel and think Talk Vueve To Me goes wire to wire today.
Race 10 (10,2,11)
We end the day with yet another doosy where I was able to make a case for a bunch of runners again. These maiden claimers are always the toughest races for me so I tend to revert to mainly trip handicapping. I want the 2. No the 10. Actually 11. OK, OK, OK. Final answer—#10, Cairo Queen. Kirian only has one win this meet which is a little troublesome, but he has been close a bunch of times. This girl gets back on the turf for a second straight try and should have a little more to chase this time around. Looking at her previous race, the fractions were ridiculously slow and she had no prayer of making up any ground late. The pace should be much quicker in this one and Dylan Davis, who has a $6.20 ROI this meet with Kirian, should be sitting a few off the pace and be able to make a run late. I am confident this one will at least hit the board at a nice price.
I always say I like to do these analysis because I enjoy teaching people why I landed on or against a certain horse. I am against the Chad horse big time in this spot today for a few reasons. First of all, his last out he took the horse to Monmouth for a low level MSW race to try to get the horse some confidence and the horse didn’t respond. Now, CB ships back up to the Spa and drops in for a claim. Those who follow me often also know of my disdain for Castellano. This horse does have a lot of talent but I will not be playing it and will let him beat me today. When I am alive in the pick 6 for the scoop and this horse knocks me out, you will hear me cussing all the way from Kentucky!
This card took my brain for a wild trip. It was very challenging and I hope we can make the preparation worth it! Lets get hot and stay hot! Good luck gents.
Wednesday 7/31 Play of the Day
Race 3
$6 win 3
$2 Exacta 3/1,4,9
$1 Exacta 1,4,9/3