Churchill Downs Saturday November 23, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves pumpkin pie, Tony Soprano’s horse Pie O’ My, American Pie, and eating humble pie. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various horse tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race Six: 3:36 post – Allowance 50000s 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
6-4-3-1
Wesley Ward’s #1 Stage Left is surely the quickest of these horses, but I have lots of questions regarding the stretching out to 8.5 panels. He has had most of his success sprinting against slightly better company and #6 Dr. Hipp has won three times routing a field wire-to-wire. I can’t see a scenario where Dr. Hipp doesn’t keep pressure on Stage Left even if he doesn’t make the lead. That said, Dr. Hipp does have “The Stangler” aboard for the second consecutive race, so anything is possible. It is also interesting that Wesley Ward has chosen the ten-pound bug boy Vimael Torres, making only his third Churchill start this meet, for Stage Left. Ward knows his mount needs all the weight relief he can get for him to wire this field. In the immortal words on my buddy Ken “Head” Yeager, the only instruction Torres is going to get from Ward is “go fast and win, don’t fall off.” The pace dynamics are going to determine the winner of this race and I expect a meltdown between the two previously mentioned horses setting this up for a closer. #4 Mo Zone has been facing better horses than the others in this field and he had a troubled start in his last race. I’ll rely on Corey Lanerie to negotiate a better trip today.
Race Seven: 4:06 post – MSW 95K 6 F 2YO
11-2-5-3
The late Pick Five starts off with a complete puzzle if you don’t embrace the 6/5 ML favorite #11 Gold Street. This Steve Asmussen runner has finished second in his last two races, narrowly headed in his last on 10/19/19 against better company than this field. He is a complete stand-out on paper so he will only need to navigate a clean trip from the eleven hole. The other experienced runners don’t look like much with the possible exception of Wesley Ward’s #6 Frontana, who was an early scratch. Five baby boys are making their first appearance today and most of them don’t look usable based on statistics and training patterns. The tote board could show some steam for #3 High Proof (based on his 11/7/19 workout),the Ghostzapper #5 Major Fed, or the high-priced Pioneerof the Nile #8 Profusion, so pay attention to the early action before you single Gold Street in the Pick Five.
Race Eight: 4:36 post – Claiming 10000b 6 F 3YO&Up
10-5-2-3
Sixteen were entered and eleven will run, so make sure you look at the AEs that have drawn into this low-level claimer. As with most claimers of this level, we’ve got some horses headed in opposite directions and an opportunity for some creative handicapping. I’m not saying that #2 Belmonte will win, but trainer Larry Demeritte is 3/3 ITM at this Churchill meet with two wins, so you can rest assured this one can win. I do have some pause in using him if the track is sloppy because of his past disdain for an off going. #5 Zypto is a definite must use, but I wonder why Zayat Stables and trainer Mike Maker are entering him for a $10K tag coming in off of a recent 10/23/19 win at Keeneland. He certainly hasn’t been a world-beater in his brief career, but he was a $110K KEENOV purchase and picked up a check in three of his four lifetime starts. Weird… just weird. 4YO #10 Pryor doesn’t seem to like Churchill Downs very much as evidenced by his 1/5 ITM record, but he does love the slop as he has cashed a check in all three off-track races, including his career-best performance at Oaklawn Park on 2/18/18 where he beat Lionite and ran well enough to get entered in the Rebel next time out. He will have to run a big race from the far outside to win, but I wouldn’t be completely surprised. Most of the money should land on Mr. Monomoy, so I will press the entry.
Race Nine: 5:06 post – MSW 95K 1 1/16 Mile 2YO
4-5-7-12
This group of juvenile colts features a few runners that have flashed a little talent in their early career. Steve Asmussen’s #4 Excession seems to have improved in each of his first four races and his 9/14/19 race was a compromised trip where he finished a mere two lengths behind Maxfield. He is the class of today’s field, but his price will reflect it. #5 Tiny Danza ran so well on 10/18/19 that his connections has placed him back in MSW company and his workouts since that second place finish have been quite good. Speaking of good workouts, #7 Pow Wow Prince ran a bullet on 11/1/19 and followed it up with another cracker on 11/16/19. This Norm Casse runner hasn’t received much backing in his first two starts but he appears to be improving quite well.
Race Ten: 5:36 post – Allowance 97000n1x 1 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
17-6-14-2
Six of the eighteen entered horses have scratched from this race as this race was moved to the main track due to the weather. That means we have a chance to see an unusual winning number getting their picture taken as #17 Fireball Shot draws in as a MTO for trainer Philip Bauer. He just caught a similar field of runners on 11/7/19 over a sloppy Churchill Downs strip where he finished third to a pretty good horse in Scars Are Cool. It should be noted that Fireball Shot ran on the lead that entire race only to give up the lead near the wire while trying to go nine panels; he only needs eight today. #6 Chewing Gum ran so well in his Halloween Churchill Downs race that washed off the turf that his connections left him in today’s field after the announced surface change. His last race was plenty good enough to get it done today and Julien Leparoux stays aboard for trainer Billy Mott. If this race was being run last year, the hands-down winner would have been #2 Pony Up as evidenced by his graded stakes placings. He hasn’t been much since leaving the Todd Pletcher barn and entering him in a race originally carded for the sod was probably an attempt to get him back to the surface where he won.I was at the Sir Barton on 5/19/18 where he ran a distant fourth behind Axe Man, Title Ready, and Prince Lucky on a very sloppy surface. That race is a pretty good summary of his career: he has faced much better than most of these horses but probably doesn’t like the slop. #14 Going for Gold drew in as an AE not a MTO, which I find interesting. He finally broke his maiden, his second consecutive try on the lawn, in his last race on 11/3/19. His only off-track race was a close second as a 2YO, so the connections must think he’s got a real shot drawing in on the off-track. It does look like he has returned to the form of his early career.
Race Eleven: 6:06 post – MSW 95K 1 1/16 Mile 2YO
2-12-8-4
The racing secretary didn’t do us any favors by carding a baby race in the Pick Five finale, but here we are. Did Tyler Gaffalione jump off the John Oxley owned/Mark Casse trained $290K purchase #4 Race Driver and the high-priced Sol Kumin $450K purchase #8 Blood Moon for the ML favorite #12 Elite Class?If so, why did leading rider Corey Lanerie jump off Elite Class for #2 Gold Endeavor? If you can follow the musical saddles, you might find the winner of this race as all four of these horses make the most sense. I must say that it looks like Gold Endeavor woke up in his last race on 10/27/19 where he washed off the turf for the main track. Food for thought. Blood Moon finished well behind Gold Endeavor that day as the odds-on post-time favorite. Tyler Gaffalione rides an awful lot for trainer Brendan Walsh, so I must believe he got the call when Corey jumped ship to the Helen Pitts trained Gold Endeavor. I’m following Corey.