Churchill Downs Racing Analysis — Sunday, November 10, 2019, by Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1- 1st #1 Hoboken has top notch breeding, by More Than Ready out of an Unbridled’s Song mare.  He’s had some time off, and he ran a good race even though he finished fifth. I think he’ll be in a good spot here dropping down.

2nd #5 Atmos is a son of Candy Ride who’s in a perfect spot now.  Dale Romans trains the four year old who’s only ran once. That was almost seven months ago, and my only fear for this one is that he will need an out or two to get fit.

3rd #9 Trebulski has made two starts, none were of much effort.  He hasn’t showed much in his first efforts, but this is a better spot for him.  He’s got decent pedigree, it would be nice to see him take a step up.

Race 2- 1st #4 Stuart Hall has had some time off.  I think he’ll be okay here even without an out to bounce back.  He’s got lovely breeding, by Pioneerof The Nile, and has one win this year from six starts.

2nd #3 The Moment Is Now won two back at Belterra, so coming here and expecting to win is going to be a little harder, but he managed a nice second place outing and earned his highest e-number of his career, a 96.

3rd #6 Monday Confession is a fellow Minnesota-bred, who finished second last out at Keeneland, and it was a pretty good race.  I think winning would be a bit of a challenge, he hasn’t won in a little over eight months, but he’s consistently on the board.

Race 3- 1st #5 Despina looks the most likely winner out of all of these fillies.  While she hasn’t won since June of 2018, maybe she can change her luck with a softer spot, better jockey, and her recent performances suggest she’ll be good here.

2nd #9 Fortressa is consistently finishing second place, she’s been second in her last four races each time.  She’s never raced at Churchill before so it could be a bit of a change in her performance. Chris Landeros is having a good meet this far.

3rd #2 Aspens Little Zip hasn’t shown a whole lot.  If your not winning at Belterra, Churchill is tough, so that’s not saying much.  Her only race at Churchill was a third place, and if she likes it enough, she can finish on the board.

Race 4- 1st #9 Arabian Story ran a really nice race at Keeneland last out.  Kentucky Downs wasn’t good for him, but his only other two races were good.  I like Corey Lanerie at Churchill a lot, and same goes for trainer Greg Foley.

2nd #6 Mt. Mitchell is in a better spot, he ran better last out too when he was dropped in class.  Ken McPeek is a great Kentucky trainer, and I think this one just needs a little bit of experience and he will be better.

3rd #1 Mica Bay is a Florida bred is coming from sunny California to a cold Kentucky.  His Del Mar races were decent performances actually. I do think he’s going to need an out or two since he’s been off a while, but his works have been really well.

Race 5- 1st #6 Spokeane Eagle is coming from California and has never ran outside of there.  He’s got eight wins, two seconds, and four thirds from twenty-three starts. Really a consistent horse, trained by Diodoro.

2nd #2 Cautious Giant has been around the block a time or two with fifty three starts.  I have faith he’ll do well here because this race is significantly easier than his last few have been.  He’s just ran in some tough company this year and it’s been way out of his league.

3rd #4 Red Clay Magic ran a really good race last out and that was his first win in seven months.  He was competitive this spring at Oaklawn and really likes that track, so I’m hoping he’ll go back next spring.  Good effort last out.

Race 6- 1st #8 Rushed hasn’t ran at Churchill and has spent over half of his career at Indiana Grand.  He’s coming off of a win and a second place finish recently and seems to be on par lately.

2nd #9 Chasingthegame had enough confidence from his win to earn him back to back victories recently, except for his Keeneland race.  That was a fifth place and it was a decent effort.

3rd #2 Ike Walker has reached near the bottom in levels for claiming.  It would be nice to see the Steve Asmussen trainee win, which is why I can’t take him on top.  He hasn’t showed enough consistency. He hasn’t won since August 2018 at Del Mar.

Race 7- 1st #3 Elle’s Town is trained by Mike Maker, ridden by Florent Geroux.  He’s got some top connections, and ran eighth last out, but a good eighth.  Earned his career best e-number of 100 which is what a lot of stakes winners earn.

2nd #2 Bentley’s Dream had nine months off, finished with a second place.  Then his next two races after were pretty tough, and he just wasn’t into it.  This spot isn’t any easier so there’s a little concern.

3rd #8 Even Beat has been in some monster allowance races.  He hasn’t had the best of luck and this is still a tough race, and this one is also trained by Mike Maker.

Race 8- 1st #9 We’re Still Here ran better with a class drop last out.  He ran well in the grade two Best Pal stakes. I think with a little bit of experience and a good pilot, (Tyler Gaffalione), he will be in better shape.

2nd #5 Americain Joey has four races and finished no worse than fourth place.  He brought $1,200 at a sale, and has earned nearly twelve times that without a win.  He’ll be ok, and it’s always fun to root for these underdog, cheap horses.

3rd #1 Devil’s Drama has ran once and had a second place finish.  Joe Sharp trains for owner Dana Aschinger. By Dramedy out of a nice mare by Candy Ride (ARG), she won some nice races in New York during her career.

Race 9- 1st #9 Night Ops is trained by Brad Cox, who as you’ve probably gathered, is a top trainer.  This one is multiple stakes placed. He was a $5K purchase and has now made over $220K, and is only three years old.  Talk about a nice run.

2nd #6 Pirate’s Punch is graded stakes placed.  He’s got a bright future, and since this summer has really improved since leaving California.  I think leaving and coming to Kentucky and Indiana has re-started his career.

3rd #2 Haunt is by Ghostzapper and was out of a stakes winner named Cheery.  He just started racing this year and has made over a $130K. This field is full of talent!

Race 10- 1st #3 Midnight Jostar was a total pinhook going for a $15K horse to a $175K purchase.  Eleventh place in his first wasn’t impressive, but he came back to run a nice second.  I always talk about horses needing experience and I think that’s the case for this one.

2nd #9 Bless the Kitten is a homebred for the Ramsey’s who finished fourth in his first race.  Still a respectable effort and I think this race will go more smoothly. Mike Maker trains and Florent Geroux rides.  Good connections.

3rd #8 Lastchanceatglory made an improvement last out, again, may just need a couple races.  The races he’s running in aren’t easy. By Goldencents out of a multiple graded stakes placed mare.  He’s bred to be a runner for sure.

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