Looks like the Niggi Rain Dance is back in action today! Cant catch a break!! As you will all learn, I am not interested in top pick percentage or place and show wagers. My results will be posted every week showing the ROI of my top pick for each race that I send based upon a $2 win bet on my top choice. I will also recap my Play of the Day every week including how much was wagered ($15 max), amount won or lost, and running ROI for the Play of the Day.
I had a blast during my first trip to the Spa this past weekend. Only thing that could have made it better was more winners! I was luckily able to meet a handful of twitter followers and cappers and am super grateful for that opportunity!
Last week the rain screwed us again as I was not able to update my picks for the surface or scratches. We had a lot of top choices hit the board at some decent odds but only 1 top pick winner. I am going to try to submit picks later in the day going forward to avoid these issues! We roll on!
If you ever have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to me or shoot me a follow on twitter @BobbiNiggi
Good Luck today and let’s get some prices home!
*** All plays are listed for fast and firm. I will try to update should changes arise.
Week 3 Results
Top Choice ($2 to win)
Total Wagered- $18 Total Return- $6.60 ROI -63%
YTD Results
Total Wagered- $52 Total Return- $55.40 ROI– 7%
Play of the Day Results ($15 max wager)
Week 3
Total Wager- $15 Total Return- $0 ROI -100%
YTD
Total Wager– $40 Total Return- $64.80 ROI 62%
Race 1- Going to pass on the jumper race.
Race 2 ( 8,1,7)
Starting off this race with what should be a square price. There is a lot to like about Bears Mafia in this spot but all my notes keep saying that I think this horse wants a bit longer. I landed on 8 here mainly as a pedigree play and how this horse got into a bit of trouble in his first race. The sprinting pedigree on the dam side is extremely good and couple that with the trouble he got in, I could see Klesaris getting the win here.
Race 3 (3,4,2)
Qian BC will likely go off as your post time favorite and I am not going to fade the horse, but I think others offer more value in this spot. I kept coming back to #3, the only filly in this race. She ran a pretty nice race first out and takes a slight cut back in distance. Also gets a huge jockey upgrade from Cancel and a nice weight break. I think this horse certainly has a shot at a decent price.
Race 4 (6,7,4)
The scratches in this race made my play a bit easier here. I landed on #6, Decorated Ace. First and foremost, I play a race based on how I see the pace playing out. Secondly, I always look for trainers and jockeys who are pointing towards certain meets. Dini is 1-1 this meet and Decorated Ace is his second runner. This horse ran a pretty big race here a couple weeks back and I love seeing Lezcano stay on.
Race 5 (5,7,2)
Today may be the day for #5, Saratoga Beauty. These connections don’t often fire first off the claim but this horse looked extremely good while I was watching the works. I kept coming back and landing here every time. Saratoga Beauty doesn’t have a ton of win early pedigree but the dam has foaled 4 winners out of 5 horses. The dam also won in the slop and the rain is supposed to be coming down right around post time for this race. I am going to take a shot here.
Race 6 (4,7,2)
Going to be tough to fade the Navarro juice here and I will certainly be including if I play any horizontals, but I think Neverland Rock is worth another look here. This horse continues to improve and actually ran a better race than Elektronic last out even in defeat. He has experience on softer turf and I think another improvement will have him right there at the end.
Race 7 (8,7,5)
Quick Entry never had a shot last race and he stumbled badly out of the gate so I am willing to forgive that effort. I don’t claim to know much about owner trends but I also thought it was interesting that this horse was owned by Marylou Whitney Stables so you have to think they were pointing here. This guy is making a huge drop in class and absolutely fits in this spot!
Race 8 (8,3,9)
I see a lot of “wise guys” all over Crea’s Brooklyn Law. I have bet that horse quite a few times and I think it is a big time hanger. I promised myself I wouldn’t land back on it again, so tread carefully. I am going to take a shot with the Diodoro runner, #8, who hasn’t gotten a good trip in its last 3 tries. He was bumped hard at the break last time out and was against a pretty big closer bias the two tries before that. With a clean trip here, I think Franco can keep some momentum going and find the winners circle!
Race 9 (2,4,9)
I am not going to try to beat the Kimmel runner in this one who looks to be sitting on a huge race and should get a perfect pace setup.
Race 10 (8,10,6)
Wednesday 8/7 Play of the Day
Race 3
$10 win 3
$1 Exacta key box 3/2,4
$.50 Tri 3/2,4/2,4