Closing weekend at Santa Anita. Even with all the drama this year and the fact the winter/spring season is a long one, I certainly will miss it until the return in October. Very excited for Del Mar though, always one of my favorite times of year and will be spending plenty of time where the turf meets the surf.
It’s been a pleasure bringing you the early pick5 each weekend, and happy we hit a few together. Last weekend was a big one, where I went 5:4-0-0 with top picks in the early pick5. My single, did not come in though for the sequence after an odd ride where he was sent to his normal lead tactics on a speed favoring track. Regardless, was a good day if you were playing along the card. I am determined to finish the meet strong here this weekend.
No 5F Turf sprints today, which have been easy money, simply use inside speed and you are good. We saw it again yesterday in the 5th with a $40 winner in Awesome Heights, I was all over him. Will look to take advantage tomorrow. Todays card is a bit trickier, and has 5 Turf route races today, including two stakes. The 5 dirt races are comprised of 4 sprints and a stakes route. The early pick 5 is comprised of smaller fields where we see 6-8-4-9-6, but the late pick 5 has stronger fields with 9-8-11-9-12 and thankfully with 10 races, no connecting races in the pick 5’s.
Pick 5:
2,4,6/ 2,4,5,7/ 2/ 1,2,5,8,9/ 2,4,5 ($90) and 2,6/ 4/ 2,4/ 1,2,5,8,9/ ALL ($60)
Race 1: 4.5 Dirt Sprint for 2YO’s. $50k MDCL
2-6-4 (Win Bet on #2)
Daily Double 2,6/ 4
Will split this field in determining the horses that will be used. Top pick will be 4-1 ML #2 DK’s Crown. Take a look at the replay of his debut where he broke inward sharply to begin the race, was then quickly shuffled to last, and then when mounting a move on the turn was forced 6W. Went off at 7/2 then and Mendez is even better 2nd time out with a 47% win rate and $7.40 ROI. Clean trip will make a big difference today, look out. Also using first time starter for Adam Kitchingman #6 Bad Beat who gets the outside post in a small field for a trainer known to send early (bullet work from gate on 6/14) evidence of speed too)so expect this horse to be on or near the pace. AK is 24% for 2YO first time starters. Finally will use the the fav as we,, with the #4 Bob’s Bluesman who exits a debut race that produced 3 next out winners (the top 3 finishers)! Do not like the 0-17 for Brinkerhoff for MD2nd starters but things get abit easier with the drop from MSW (17% angle).
Race 2: 1M Turf, Allowance 50k, FM 3+
4-7-2-5 (Win/Show Bet on #4)
Tri: 4,7/ 2,4,7/ 2,4,5,7
Very competitive group here with 6 of the 8 horses with a “8” top on Thorograph, the other two with a 9, and 10. I prefer horses on or near the lead fr this course unless it’s an apparent pace meltdown, which I am not seeing here with only one horse over 100 for TimeForm on Early speed, the #4 Ruby Trust (another for Adam Kitchingman). I went to the tape for Ruby’s last race which were at similar conditions last month, but you have to think AK was not happy with Franco setting a fast past at 1:10 while getting periodic pressure up front. Was inside of the pressure, but that horse applying it (Dearborn) folded on the turn while Ruby Trust went on with it to hit the board. Now, I am not seeing many that would apply pressure here up front today, so I expect an easier lead and I am sure the plan is to repeat the splits from his win two back where she was loose and set comfortable fractions to kick home strong. I do not like the jockey choice here, as Roman is 6% on Turf and 7% routes, not his specialty, but does do better with horses on the lead. 2nd choice is #7 An Eddie Surprise for leading owner Reddam who has improving figs and a strong strong of works. Last race sat a perfect trip off a hot pace and looked like the winner before a hard closing Don’t Blame Judy caught her in deep stretch. Horse should be just off Ruby Trust and if she can catch her and we don’t see a hot pace, should be safe from a repeat of last out. I’m torn on the Lerner horses to be honest, like him a lot an he has been on absolute fire this year winning at a 34%, but both of these horses come in from the Pender barn (suspended), whom Lerner learned under, and like Peter Miller, horses under or coming from known EPO/Super Feed barns have not faired well since med changes. The #8 has not been competitive since these changes, and the #1 in jumping up in class off a win right after the changes were made. I will take a pass on both. #2 Trustini will be used, as this horse closed into a speed bias track on a slow pace on 6/9 following some crowding at the start. Will likely be 6-1 or better here as Beyer figs do not do the race justice. Van Belvoir off the claim hits at 24% and $3.58 ROI, great value here and being inside on this course helps. Finally, will also use #5 Zuzanna, a horse that is has been right there at the wire in the last 3 (2 1st’s and a 2nd) with notes like “game”, “driving” and “willingly” in her run lines telling of a competitive and fit horse. We may be a little deep here, but on these Turf Routes, where the variant his higher, it’s strategic.
Race 3: 1M Dirt, STKS $100k Cal Bred FM3+
#2 Starr of Quality *Single*
Small four horse field, but a key play for me will be ML fav, #2 Starr of Quality for Bill Spawr who is 28% win rate in STKs races. Last out, ran in the G2 Santa Margarita stakes against Paradise Woods who dusted the competition, but gets a small cut back from 9F to 8F today, has the best Thorofig top by 3points vs. this bunch. Lieks this track, career here is 12: 5-1-2, and has been working well since the G2 effort 2 months back with 6 straight 4F+ works in slow fashion which is typical of Spawr. The risk here is Coco Kisses getting loose on the lead and finding a breather, but I will play against that as this dirt track has not been playing well for those looking to go gate to wire, especially when routing. Coco also has 1 route in her career, where she faded to 5th after setting the pace and no route success in dam and sibs, and sire is only 8% at 1M or better. SINGLE on the #2 here.
Race 4 1M Turf $25K CLM
5-9-2-8-1 (spread)
Looks like a potential contentious pace duel between the #2 and the #6 for this race based on early Timeform US figs of over 110 each. Will only use the #2 here as the #6 is prone to fading and I liked the effort for the #2 Outlaw in January at a mile on turf here at the 50K claiming level, losing by 2 after setting the pace early but showing some gameness in the stretch. The other thing to look at here is the 3YO’s who are facing older, still a little early for me to not pay attention to this as the 3YO’s are up against it, so will dismiss the 4,6,and 7, using only the #5 Royal Insider of the 3YO bunch. This horse debuted last year going 1M on Turf, before then meeting up against the likes of Extra Hope, Nolo Contesto, Gray Magician, and Omaha Beach on dirt in his 3 tries. He then did not take to the all weather track at GG, and returned to dirt in April at SA for a win at the 25k Claiming level and was claimed by R3 Racing with Doug O’Neil. They returned the horse to turf in their first effort for a good 2nd place on soft turf. Now, he gets firm turf today and has been up close in both races with Doug, I like the set up here today and with 6 works and a race in 7 weeks, should be fit and ready. 2nd choice is #9 Mr. Magico who has been a plodder but figs keep improving. He gets a big jockey upgrade today in Prat, and Powell has had a solid meet with 21% win rate (39% with Prat! In 23 starts). Also using the #8 Fortune of War, who will be good value and will look to get his trainer on the board at Santa Anita this meet (0-12) but gets red hot turf jockey Velez ($3.03) and figs fit amongst this group. Finally, as a spread race, using #1 Holy Ghost, although not a big fan of the value here with the 5/2 ML.
Race 5: 6.5F Dirt, OC20k NW1X, Cal Bred
4-5-2
Happy this race is not connecting the early and late P5 as this is a tough one. Race is loaded with speed, and the best late kick is getting blinkers and Pedroza (both signs to expect the horse to show more early speed today). Going with top pick #4 Satrapa who folded after sitting off a fast pace and dueling with Wild Bean the last race, but this was after a 9mo layoff. 2nd off the layoff for Palma hits at 33% $4.40, and has 6 works and a race in 8 weeks, including 2 very strong works following the last race, one being B+ graded. Will need to catch the speed here with some late kick. #5 Wild Bean also working well and will be used, appears that he wants the lead and does not have success when chasing. Will be a challenge to get to the lead, but by chance he does, will want on the ticket. Will also use #2 Posterize off his 7 length MSW win and has been game on all dirt sprint tries.
EARLY PICK 5 off to a good start with a $10 top pick winner to begin the sequence. Lets hope Ruby Trust can bring home the early double which pays $100 on a $2 play.
Late Pick 5: 1,4,7,9/ 1,4,6/ 1,8,9,11/ 5,7,8/10 ($72) & 1,4,7/ 1,4/ 1,2,5,8,9,11/ 7,8/ 2,3,4,10 ($144)
Race 6: 1 1/8M TURF $200K Snow Chief Stakes
7-1-4 -9
Quite a bit of early speed in this one today as well, and at the 9 furlongs, could set up for someone off the pace. No one in this bunch has gone 9 furlongs and 3 runners have never gone 2 turns, making this a tough test for the 2,3, and 5 so I will be dismissing these from consideration. Top pick is #7 Desmond Doss who won his maiden race in closing fashion over a speed bias turf track where he caught a hot pace. A little concerned with the lack of 1M+ in his pedigree but has been working lights out. Also using #4 Irish Heatwave who is 4:2-0-1 at Santa Anita and despite winning in a long duel in the last race, has been more of a stalk and pounce type which will be better suited today. #1 Our Silver Oak showed strong late kick in the last against a slow pace (same race as Irish Heatwave) to lose by a nose. Has a good chance to turn the tables today on the #4 with more speed likely and the extra furlong. 0 for last 9 brings obvious concerns but I like the work pattern since last race and comes in fresh with a turf/Route specialist as a trainer in the Northern invader Wong.
Race 7: 6.5F Dirt, MSW65k FM 3+
4-1-6
#4 Road Rager went fast on debut, where she sat a half off a 46 second ½ before taking control at the top of stretch. Was headed mid stretch and immediately fought back and battled to wire, showed a lot here. Was DQ’d in the end, questionable but came down to Gryder continuing to whip left handed when drifting to the competitor. The extra furlong is a risk here, as is the fact speed has not held on this track, but man I loved the fight, a must use but wont single. #1 Valencia is ½ to 4x stakes winner Etched, who put up a “2” TG fig as a 2YO in dirt sprints before going on to a successful stakes winning dirt router. Mandella not one to excited about first time out at 12% win clip, but attracting Prat here (J/T 20%) is interesting. #6 Blue Moonrise will likely be more of a router, but don’t ignore here. Last race was in January when coming in 2nd to Flor de la Mar in her breakout debut. Strong works and Baffert 24% off the layoff.
Race 7: 1M TURF, $100k G3 Wilshire STKS FM 3+
11-1-9-8
1, 11 Win/Show
She will need to work out a trip from the wide post, but I am going with #11 Tapped as the top selection here. Returned following an 18 mo. layoff to face big time competition in an OC80k in April where she ran an impressive 2nd ahead of emerging star Causeforcommotion. Next out, Baltas raised the stakes and raced her on dirt in the G2 Santa Maria against the best older females in this division finshing last of 5. Gets back to turf today where she has a good turn of foot and it appears there will be enough pace to run at today. Expecting big improvement with 3rd off long layoff and 5 good works under her belt. 6-1 would be a gift. Speaking of layoffs, #1 Ollie’s Candy will get her 2nd off the 10 mo. layoff, a profitable move for Sadler $2.76, where she was thrown into the G1 Gamely off it and appeared to need the race. 2 bullet works since gives me confidence that there are no issues and should be fitter for this one today. Another steal at 5-1. Will be playing against Storm the Hill who won this race last year and had a great 2018 campaign. Was shut down in November and returns today with some subpar works that have me concerned this may be too tough of a test off the layoff and as the fav, no value to be had. Prefer the first two. I will include a long shot here as a speed horse, in case speed holds and the turf remains favored towards speed. #9 Ippodemias Girl for Andrew Lerner appears to be the only one who wants the lead, and last out off the 6 mo. layoff stole the race in this fashion at the same distance.4 year old, 2nd off the layoff for one of the hottest trainers out there should improve further today, and if allowed to relax, could steal again at a price. Finally, nothing wrong with #8 Don’t Blame Judy who showed a vicious close on hot fractions on a speed bias track.
Race 9: 6.5F Dirt, OC40K N1X
7-8-5
Late Double 7/10 COLD
You have to expect that the two Bafferts wont get caught in a speed duel here, as the race shape is going to be such an important factor in this one. You know I am not a fan of the 3YO’s vs. older, despite this being the 2nd time I am going there today with my top pick #7 Cruel Intentions. This may be that special 3YO from Baffert that suddenly begins to make noise in the summer. Full brother to 5x SW Spiced Perfection has had 6 consecutive works leading up to today including back to back bullets (one from the gate) before having the last work be an easy one, always a good sign. The 5/29 work was in tandem with #5 McKale, where each matched strides to each earn the bullet. Just in case we do see a pace meltdown here, and due to how the track has played, protecting with #8 Cats Blame who has the best late kick of the bunch and last time going 6.5 mowed down a good group late.
Race 10: 1M TURF MSW 65k
10-2-4
SH5: 10/ 2,4/ 2,3,4/ 1,2,3,4,7/ ALL
Top Pick is #10 Parsimony for Reddam/O’Neil/Mario connections. They have always been high on this one, and they stick to the MSW division despite being 0-11. But, look at the horses he has run against, Sparkyville, Roadster, Gunmetal Gray, Omaha Beach, Vekoma to name a few. Has 5 2nd’s in 11 starts and last race was closing into the winner late despite being off a one week rest, into a slow pace, and against a bias. Single on main ticket. #2 Sly has been getting a lot of buzz for his works in the mornings and should show good speed today. Throws blinkers on, a profitable move for Mandella at $2.40. The threat to steal the race if the #2 doesn’t go, is #4 Takeo who comes out of 2 very good races that included One Bad Boy and Proud Pedro as the winners. TimeFormUS early/late combo is the best of the bunch and looks like we will get a big price. Include in him in exotics.