Turfway Park Friday February 15, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves strong coffee, playing against the chalk, asparagus spears, and first time geldings. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Welcome to an extended card of night racing at Turfway Park… Bomb’s Away.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – Claiming 8000 1 Mile 4YO&Up
7-3-1-2
An evenly matched group of $8000 claimers starts the card with essentially a rematch of a 1/26/19 Turfway Park race at these same conditions. Six of tonight’s seven runners were in that race. Since #3 Man of Blues won, it should come as no surprise that he is a slight ML favorite and could easily repeat that result tonight. #1 Cairn lost the head bob in that race and has been a pretty nice performer during this Turfway meet, even winning a $10000 claimer back in December. I’m leaning towards the newcomer in tonight’s race #7 Laflowmylaxbro. I find it encouraging that Samuel Bermudez chooses to stay with him over #2 Ian Smith and this 7YO has been an accomplished Turfway Park runner finishing ITM 8/11 starts. I think the outside post will help the cause.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n1y 1 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
6-3-1-4
I tried to find a reason to play against the ML favorite #6 Tenacious Sally, but I really couldn’t find one. She seems to be a notch or two above this field of low-level claimers. She is 8/9 ITM here at Turfway and is certainly the most consistent runner in the field. I am a little leery of the two month lay-off. If I was going to try for an upset, I would probably take my chances with #3 Sweet Rock. Her 12/28/18 Turfway race is good enough to win tonight and she is at least fit, as this will be her fifth Turfway start since the beginning of December. I don’t think there will be enough pace for her running style in this race, but I may let the tote board make that call.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 7500n3L 1 Mile 4YO&Up
4-5-2-7
#5 Just Be Frank is a deserving favorite in this $7500 claimer, but we may be able to catch a bit of a price with this field. #4 Just Another John is making a significant class drop tonight for a rarely seen trainer, Mitch Chandler. The “For Sale” sign might be up on this runner, but the class relief makes a ton of sense. There should be a bit of pace in this one mile affair for Just Another John to take advantage of his late running style and I like Gabriel Lagunes choosing to stay aboard over another runner in this race. #2 Supreme Venture could be of some value in this spot. Based on past running lines, he could be the lone speed and try to take them all wire to wire. I have concerns about the complete absence of all-weather races, but if he takes to the track at all and gets the front, he can try to wire them without any of the nasty Turfway kickback.
Race Four: 7:42 post – Claiming 5000n2Y 6 F 4YO&Up
8-10-3-6
#10 Flying Frank prefers this distance and has had some success here at Turfway. His last two races sure look like misfires, but I can give him a pass on the 12/20/18 effort because of the lousy post. I have more difficulty forgiving the last where it looked like he has the best of it until he flattened coming home. Luan Machado chooses to stay with #8 Beach Hut again tonight and this runner has been in decent form during the Turfway meet. He has moved up the claiming ladder since November and seems to relish the all-weather surface. I think he gets just enough early pace to allow for his closing move and the outside post helps. Editors note: my top choice #4 Hugh B. scratched.
Race Five: 8:12 post – John Battaglia Memorial Stakes 75K 1 1/16 Mile 3YO
3-8-2-1
Without question, the star of tonight’s card is #8 Somelikeithotbrown. Mike Maker looks to have a solid runner on his hands, perhaps even a star. Somelikeithotbrown returns to the track after a three month freshening from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, a race where he looked to have it won coming down the stretch. I think he is the best horse in the race, but I am going to play against him based on fitness and value. #3 The Mackem Bullet also has some graded stakes paydays in her running lines and she even faced Newspaperofrecord in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. I think she has the fitness advantage tonight as Wesley Ward put on an absolute show with her here at Turfway on New Year’s Eve. I think tonight is the perfect time for her to catch the other Breeders’ Cup runner a bit flat-footed. On paper, it looks to be a match race between these two, and I’ll take the lone filly tonight. If these two decide to burn a heavy pace on the front end, I wouldn’t discount the chances of #2 Dabo running them down in the lane. Dale Romans didn’t ship him up from Gulfstream on a lark.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 5000b 1 Mile 4YO&Up
6-4-3-7
#4 Kitten for Granny is the lukewarm ML favorite tonight coming in off of his recent 1/19/19 Turfway Park victory. The Kittens Joy family always takes money at the windows too, so he likely will be the post time favorite as well. He could win tonight, but this race looks a little wide open, so I am going to take a stand against him. #3 Dance Strike looks to be rounding back into form after a couple of misfires this past fall and he has demonstrated that he likes the Turfway all-weather surface. #6 Alpha Boy returns to the all-weather surface after running several races at Hawthorne. His last two races were near misses that picked up a check, but I think he might just be a little better than this field. Given his affinity for routing and experience on the poly, I am willing to overlook a rarely seen trainer and jockey in this spot.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – Claiming 5000n2L 6 F 4YO&Up
8-3-10-7
#3 Winter Rain graduated against a MC5000 field here at Turfway in his last race after a solid second place finish in his first all-weather try. He could certainly win, but this is his first race against winners and he drew the rail, so I am playing against him. #10 Wind Rhapsody has a few things working in his favor against this field. His last three races have been just a notch below his competition, but he has been hanging close against similar horses here at Turfway. I think he gets a nice jockey upgrade and an ideal post position to be in the mix at the wire. #8 Trenton Bridge didn’t appear to appreciate the extra distance asked of him in his last race, but his sprint effort against better on 12/6/18 is plenty good enough to get it done tonight. I normally hate these “one for lifetime” types, but I think the move back to a sprint and a return to Luan Machado might just give him the edge.
Race Eight: 9:44 post – MSW 18.5K 6 F 3YO
6-5-2-4
A very short field of 3YOs for this MSW and a winning effort by any of them would not surprise me. This is the type of race I normally skip at the track while I go get on Old-Fashioned, but I won’t skip it in my analysis. Obviously the two players are #5 Wise Legacy and #6 Hallelujah Hawk. I am pretty much against all of the other runners for various reasons, but I recognize the fact any of them could win because of their young age. I think that Hallelujah Hawk has run the best race of any of these runners in his last outing. He fought with the leaders and was forced wide giving him too much to do down the lane. Watch the tote board steam on #2 Pepper’s Concord. The statistics are against trainer James Spicer, but Euclyn Prentice took the mount; he may be live.
Race Nine: 10:11 post – Allowance 18500n2L 1 Mile 4YO&Up
8-1-2-9
There was absolutely nothing wrong with the debut graduation of #1 Cardiac Kitten here at Turfway on 12/1/18. For some reason, Wesley Ward hasn’t entered him since his victory and has chosen to work him seven times since his only race. I don’t know if that is significant or just an oddity. The works were respectable but not flashy. He is deserving of your attention. #2 Red Kite has been an improving horse over his last four races. It concerns me that he has run off a string of second place finishes and he just may not want to win. As much as it pains me to say, I think that Laura Wohlers may have finally figured out #8 Welles Crowther. I openly admit that I am not much of a believer in Wohlers as a trainer, but she is incredibly nice and good for the game. I love me some Mattress Mack. Welles Crowther ran a respectable race in the Forego on 1/18/19 after being bothered at the start. He ran evenly with some fine horses that night, but he never had a chance and he didn’t give up. I have always found this horse to be kind of flaky and temperamental, but he looked more mature last month. I’ll take him over the new shooter.
Race Ten: 10:40 post – Claiming 5000n2L 6 F 4YO&Up F&M
1-7-8-3
In a race where I really don’t like any of the horses, I suppose I have to take the one with the most upside. #1 Dhafeera has easily run the best races of any of these as evidenced by her 2018 running lines at Santa Anita. I have no idea how she turned into such a mess at the Fairgrounds, but she did. It concerns me a bit that she is dropping so much in class tonight, but I am going to put my trust in Brett Santangelo even though I loathe the jockey choice. I hate the post position as well, but if she runs anywhere near potential, she airs this group. #7 Carolina Reaper ran a huge clunker in her last race at the Mountain, so I am going to draw a line through that effort. A return to her 12/14/18 Turfway race has her in the mix and she certainly has the right pilot tonight.