Hello all and welcome back to the Spa for another Thursday. Last week we made a killing hitting 5 races out of the 9 on the card making it my best day of the meet thus far. The last two weeks have been solid so let’s stay hot here and keep it going! My twitter and stats will be posted below for the meet.
Twitter: @EdPiluso
Bet/Returned
$78/$108.40
No picks heading into the steeplechase as I will be skipping it myself.
Race 2: 7-8-5
#7 STRETCH THE TRUTH gives us some price potential here in the opener in a race that doesn’t really look too tough for a first time starter. This gelding has a collection of very solid workouts, especially in the past few weeks. The barn is 18% in the past 5 years with debut runners in dirt sprints. The pedigree is extremely solid and let’s take a shot here at 12/1 ML. #8 MALIBU LUNA ran a very solid race last time out here at the Spa 11 days ago. She broke from the outermost post in that race too and the barn is 29% with second time maidens at 2 years old in maiden dirt sprints over the past 3 years.
Race 3: 7-4-1
#7 TURF WAR is the pick here and we should really all know why, it’s the dynamic duo of Joel and CC. Joel has ridden 11 of Clement’s 15 winners this meet. The trip sets up well for her to stalk and finish strong which is what Joel is best at and his timing in turf sprints has been impeccable thus far. Clement is 4 for 5 with filly turf sprinters here at the Spa so far this meet and that last race looks to put her in good form. #4 LOST TICKET gained some ground and ran fairly well in the last race. JohnnyV retains the ride That was the best Beyer she has ever earned. She won over firm ground the last time she ran over it and she will get that today, decent price on the try again here.
Race 4: 2-6-4
#2 BLOOD MOON looks to be the real only speed in this race, getting a nice rider upgrade with an aggressive rider here. The last race he wasn’t able to hang on at the end but ran very well considering it was a decent pace he ran. That was the first race back on the dirt after a try on the turf and it was a career high Beyer. He should be improving at the trip here after the last race and the rider upgrade is massive earning him the top spot in this race. #6 GRIT AND GLORY was our opening day, opening race hero just getting up at the wire to give us a perfect 1/1 on the season. We’re really going to hope that he doesn’t do that to us here as we are putting him under due to a nice step up in class here. His Beyer’s are overall some of the best ones in the field and this is a small but tough field with no clear winner.
Race 5: 8-7-12
#8 BIG RED GIRL ran her best Beyer ever on the grass off the layoff at Belmont. She ran 3rd that day and made up a good amount of ground and will get the best rider of her career up today. She was also clipped on her heels in that race to finish 3rd was very impressive. The trainer hits at 17% in turf sprints and the jockey and trainer hit at 16% overall, at 8/1 ML this girl looks live. #7 FRENCHIE FROU FROU ran well in her only turf sprint and that was her highest Beyer ever. She does get blinkers on here to be closer to the pace, and a new rider in Tyler up. She does look very live at 6/1 ML but trainer percentages suggest a minor prize might be the best bet.
Race 6: 5-4-3
#5 OFF TOPIC is coming off a bit of a stinker coming from a long layoff. Irad and Todd have gone 9 for 15 this Saratoga meet together. She earned her career best Beyer figure when she got class relief. My only issue is her pace setup but if she’s as good as I believe she is then she should be able to overcome that fairly easily. #4 FOXTAIL won here over the dirt last week in a race taken off the grass. She’s already a two time winner at this meet and has never lost on the dirt, interesting as she may go to the lead without too much pressure.
Race 7: 2-3-10
#2 THIN WHITE DUKE ran well here on the turf at this distance last time out and did well considering the trip. The gelding was bumped at the start and bumped at the 3/16th pole, steadied, but still ran 2nd by only a length. A cleaner trip today which is highly likely would be appreciated as he definitely liked the grass and can perform. Manny retains the mount and has been on him for every races thus far. #3 IT’S A GAMBLE is a first time starter coming off a very decent workout. The trainer has an 18% stat with first time starters and is a very solid sprint trainer. Joel is also up at a nice price of 6/1 ML and he has been red hot with turf sprints.
Race 8: 6-1-3
#6 BRAY has run ITM in every race so far in his career and won last time out second off the layoff. Last race looked to have a similar pace situation to this one which it’s encouraging to see that. He’s run second or better at this distance in every race she’s run at it (3). Irad is jumping up here first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez who is 18% in first claiming races. Beyer’s are some of the best in this field and there is still room for this colt to improve. #1 QUIET OUT EAST is coming in third off the layoff today and has been improving Beyer wise. We see a very solid work that last time out and this gelding is 7 for 8 ITM on the grass and 2 for 3 ITM with a win at the distance. This guy is clearly better on the grass and at 6/1 ML he is very live here.
Race 9 Union Ave: 1-3-5
#1 RATAJKOWSKI won off the layoff in an ungraded stake last time out at Belmont and held off the on comers. Her having speed here from the rail is very enticing and she is fantastic in one turn races. Her Beyer’s are some of the best in this field, she has beat most of the runners in this field before as well. She’s done well here at Saratoga with a win and a place in two races. #3 MRS. ORB almost beat the top pick when she was coming late last time out. The pace does set up for her well here and she does have a right to improve here. Reason she’s under is the cut back in distance and she hasn’t won a race at this distance. She has talent and could be a nice price here for the under’s.
Race 10: 11-12-7
#11 SAINTE MERE EGLISE has a couple of nice races behind her and ran a decent work on the grass here at Saratoga. The breeding here is impeccable for the grass and she has some of the best Beyer’s of the field here of who has run. She’s only run on this turf course at the Spa in her career and at 6/1 ML she does look very live here to close out the day on what could be a very nice note. #12 PURE BODE ran a decent enough first race and can definitely improve here. The 12/1 ML price is very interesting as she has a solid Beyer compared to other runners at lower prices. Lezcano retains the mount and this one looks live.