Hello Horseplayers and racing fans! Back for another exciting Sunday of racing at Gulfstream. Following a pretty successful group of picks last week, I’m hoping to continue the momentum with this great 10 race card. As always, we will have an eye on the weather for those Turf races and I will try and update my twitter feed with any changes. It should be a great day of racing, so let’s get started!
Race 1 – 1 1/16 Miles Maiden Claimer on Turf for 3-year old’s and upward
This is a 9 Horse field
In handicapping this one, the horse that stuck out to me right away is the 2 Sunday Scheming. Not just because of the cool name for a Sunday race winner, but there are a couple of angles I really like, even in a Maiden claiming race. She’s coming 3 off of a layoff and dropping in class. This Wesley Ward trained fillie will probably be the favorite going in and you’ll get no argument from me as I do believe she’s the winner here. My other picks here are the 5 Bee Wings and the 4 Lady Larko. The 5 is dropping just a bit in class and even though she’s coming off a of 58-day layoff, this will be her 2nd race after being claimed back in March and trainer Jane Cibeli is 34% with 2nd after claiming. At an 8/1 ML I believe there is definitely some value in playing the 5. In watching her previous 2 race replays, I find that the 4 has a few characteristics I really like in a Turf route runner. She seems to have great speed, but I also think there is a bit more pace there than may meet the eye.
Race 1 Picks- 2,5,4
Race 2 – 5 Furlongs Maiden Claimer on Dirt for 2-year Old’s and upward
This is a 10 Horse filed.
With 5 out of 10 horses in this race being first time starters, you can imagine the possibilities here. The ML favorite is the 6 Say Cheese and she is coming off a really nice 2nd place finish in her debut effort. She battled gamely in the 4 ½ furlong event and looked sharp even though she was favored to win and came up just short. I’m going to have to give the nod here to the 3 Kirby however. I like the pedigree angle here with her Stake Winning Dam producing 5 winners from 11 starters. Couple that with a genuinely nice workout at 4fl on 06/07 and I believe the 3 has a real shot here. This brings me to my first longshot play of the day and it’s a bomb at 30/1 ML. The 10 Princess Nina. I like her for a lot of the same reasons as the 3, with a Dam producing 5 winners from 5 starters and what looks like a real bred in liking for this distance.
Race 2 Picks- 3,6,10
Race 3 – 5 Furlongs Claiming Race on Turf for 3-year old’s and upward
This is a 12-horse field with 1 AE and 2 MTO entries ready to go
If this race stays on the turf the favorite will more than likely be the 2 Cape Trios at 2/1. At first glance the 2 looks to be the one to beat for sure but there are a few things that I believe makes it a vulnerable favorite. The top concerns for me are the 5-month layoff and the suspect weak finishes 2 and 3 races back. Therefore, I’m going with a different top pick here in the 7 Fire Optic. You should get a better price than the 2 and, in my opinion, the 7 looks to be more fit. I also like the fact that the 7 has Zayas up and he is 50% in the money on this type of early running style horse. My other picks here are going to be the longer priced 10 Speed Star at a ML of 12/1 and the 1 True Heiress. The 10 has the type of running style that may benefit from a quick start and that is definitely a possibility here with the amount of early speed horses in the field. Even at 5 furlongs, if the 10 can stay close and the pace is hot early, he may be able to come from off the pace and get them late. The 1 was super impressive in watching his replay of his last start. He was bumped pretty hard early and still won driving away. Like the 10, the 1 also could benefit from a speed duel and busted pace.
Race 3 Picks – 7,10,1
Race 4 – 1 Mile Maiden Claimer on Dirt for 3-year old’s and upward
This is an 8-horse field
This filed has one first time starter in the 3 First Salvo and the ML favorite is going to be the
6 Superhighway. The 6 certainly looks to be dominant, at least on paper, and is set up nicely here to be the winner. I’m going to go a different direction here though and take the 4 Woodhaven Kid as my favorite for this one. I like that the 3 year od gelding is dropping a bit in class and trainer Patrick Reynolds is 33% on 2nd time Lasix which box the 4 also checks. On top of these angles the 4 had very rough starts in both of his first 2 races, being bumped at the start in both and bumped again later in his last. I think this horse has a lot more to offer and we may see it if he can stay out of trouble early here. My other pick is the 5 Voicesinthedarknez and the 1 The Bless One. The 5 has nice speed and last time out showed a bit of a kick outside to go with it. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo is 50% In the money with horses matching this running type and trainer Brian Lynch has beaten the favorite 26% of the time. The 1 has something that I can’t quite put my finger on that leads me to believe he could be there at the end in the money. His only race so far has been on turf and he was very well bet in that debut. Even though he has quite a long layoff, I believe he’s going to like the dirt here, and with the addition of blinkers I think he’s going to be a lot more comfortable. I’m expecting a much better race from him this time out.
Race 4 Picks – 4,5,1
Race 5 – 1 1/16 Miles on Turf Claiming for 3-year old’s and upward which have never won 2 races
This is a 12 Horse Field
I’m going with the chalk in this one as I really do like the 12 Youshouldbesolucky, the ML favorite at 5/2. I think the 12 just has too much going for him here including, what I feel is important in turf routes, class. Even though the outside post positions are doing poorly in this one, I’m still not discouraged in my believe that he is the winner here. I do find some value in my other picks, however. My next pick is the 5 Hero Up. From watching his last race, I think this colt has some real potential and if he can be rated just a bit may have enough to be there in the end. A lot is going to depend on the pace of early and whether or not Samy Camacho can save a little here. My next pick is the 6 Spinning Kitten. The 6 can pick up the pieces from off the pace a bit if the opportunity presents itself and I like the fact that he ran 2nd last time out against arguably a slightly better field.
Race 5 Picks – 12,5,6
Race 6 – 1 Mile on Dirt Allowance OC for 3 year old’s and upward
This is a 7 horse field
I really like the 5 Roman Empire in this one. After a strong 2nd place finish last time out at 1 1/16 mile, I believe the 5 benefits here from a slight drop in distance as well as a drop in class. You have to believe that Pletcher will have this colt ready to go and in looking at the field pace wise, I believe that the race could very well unfold just the way the 5 wants it. My other picks are going to be the 7 Gray Beau and the 1 Espresso Caliente is going to by another longshot play here. The 7 has a great combo of speed and pace and right now I would even give hi the nod in class. The 1 I believe is going to be overlooked by a lot of bettors. Not a lot to look at on paper besides a really nice workout at 5 furlongs on 06/10. In watching some replays of the 1 I really think that the race could come to him in a way that will suit.
Race 6 Picks – 5,7,1
Race 7- 5 Furlongs on Turf Claiming for 3 year old’s and upward
This is a 12 horse filed with 4 AE ready to go.
I’m going with the 7 Venerate for the win in this one. Not only do I like his turf speed numbers but I also like the turf pedigree. The Dam has 5 winners from 5 starters including 2 turf winners and a stakes winner. Looking at his replay from last time out he was pinned in a bit and even brushed in the stretch leading to an unspectacular 6th place finish. I believe with a better trip this time out the 7 is a winner. My other picks here are going to be the 12 Mr. Edgar and I’m taking a longshot play with the 9 El Gran Cacao. I think the 12 bounces back from a walk off last time out to finish strong here for trainer Jorge Delgado. The 9 will be underestimated in my opinion and should remain a good price. He is returning to a sprint from a 1 mile affair on turf and had a ruff trip last time. I also like the 9’s pedigree and I believe an in the money finish is more than possible here.
Race 7 Picks- 7,12,9
Race 8 – 7 Furlongs on Dirt Claiming for 3 year old’s
This is a 10 Horse field
I’m going away from the ML favorite here and leaning on the 2 Jettin Out. Even though the 2 is coming up in class I believe he is right where he should be. He is coming 2nd off of a layoff which is an angle that I do like as well as his over all running style which I believe suits this distance and field well. If jockey Victory Lebron can keep him close to the pace early I see him finishing strong at the wire for the win. I also like the 9 Makabim. He is coming off of a 2nd place finish a 1 mile and I think the drop in distance will work in his favor here. My last pick in this one is a bit of a longshot with the 6 Northbrook at 15/1. Another horse dropping in class that has win at this distance on his record. The 6’s chances will depend a lot on the early pace of this one but if he can be rated a bit, I think a finish in the money is in order for him here.
Race 8 Picks- 2,9,6
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs on Dirt Allowance OC for 3 year old’s and upward
This is an 8 horse field
The ML favorite 6 Flora Fantasy is the horse to beat in my opinion. I can’t really find any vulnerability with her in watching past races although, I do believe she will be challenged. The 8 Fillupcohensapiker is my next pick in this one. Even though she’s coming off of a 3 month layoff I think her class and running style will ensure her a strong finish. My last pick in this one is going to the 3 Sweetly Maid. I like her for a lot of the same reasons as the others, but I would also give her a plus due to the returning to a dirt sprint angle, coming back from a 1 mile affair on turf. I think she fits in well speed wise and should be in good form here.
Race 9 Picks – 6,8,3
Race 10 – 6.5 Furlongs on Dirt Claiming for 4 year olds and upward.
This is a 10 horse field
This is your typical “last race of the day” race and could be a wild one. I look for a fairly fast start with the 7 and the 9 getting out early but I think it’s the 5 Millionaire Runner who gets home first here. I have an angle that I like in these odd distance sprints that have early speed in the field, and that’s to go with a good closer that has late pace and the 5 certainly fits the bill here. My other picks are going to be the 4 Nacho Papa and the 7 French Quarter. The 4 is coming up in class for this one and is coming off a win at 6Fl, in watching the replay I noticed a nice long drive by the 4 that showed a bit of closing ability as well. The 7 definitely has the speed to win here and if he can avoid an early speed duel should be right there in the end as well.
Race 10 Picks – 5,4,7