Race 1
2 – Policy Option – Chad Brown has two in here, and Javier is on a live one for sure, but I’m sticking with the white-hot rider in Irad Ortiz. Barn connects on 25% of their 2yo runners, 24% of first-turf tries and 22% when the debut is greater than a mile. Turf played fast on Friday so maybe look for a forward placement from the inside draw.
2-6-8
Race 2
8 – The Rock Says – he was impeded from the jump in his last try and very likely would’ve got the money if he was able to break clean. He has enough early speed to walk them in here, but is versatile to sit off if a pace develops. Keeps Saez in the irons and draws outside again, a position from which he’s already had some success when going two turns. 8-3-6
Race 3
2 – Dubai Bobby – made the debut going six panels on the Belmont lawn, but will switch to dirt today for Jonathan Thomas (who knows a thing or two about running horses on multiple surfaces – cough, Catholic Boy, cough). The inside draw should help after a tough debut that saw him rally nicely for third, and the barn excels with maidens making their second start (27%). 2-3-4.
Race 4
6 – Our Way – if you can excuse the last try at Tampa when he probably was going too far for his liking, then what you have is five straight 90+ speed figures and a horse that is usually involved in the lane. The downside is that he’s only made two starts in the last two years, but he got his legs warmed up in Florida and looks like a nice play at a price to steal this one from just off the pace. Jose Ortiz gets back on after riding him at Gulfstream two winters ago, so something must be appealing about his chances right? 6-4-2.
Race 5 – The Troy, G3 – $200k
2 – Disco Partner –UPSET ALERT!!! I’m taking a swing on the win end against heavy and well-deserved favorite World of Trouble, who I think will find just enough company on the front-end to set it up for this Christophe Clement closer who is more than capable of spoiling the party. He’s had trouble against the favorite in the past, but today is a new day and I think he’ll get his preferred firm surface. 2-1-5.
Race 6
10 – Dinar – Cherie DeVaux got her first Saratoga victory last Sunday, and I don’t think she’ll be waiting beyond today for her second with this $90k Union Rags purchase looking very live heading into start number three. The 7/26 work at Keenland was an absolute bullet, and he’s rallied nicely in each of the first two starts. Pace could get hot here, so look for this one to sit off and make one run from the outside slot. 10-6-8.
Race 7 – The Lure – $100k
6 – Say the Word – this is a tricky race, but I see the pace getting relatively quick to set up this Graham Motion runner coming off two very nice efforts in New York and Canada. This is a jump in class, but he seems like he’s moving forward, owns a victory over the Saratoga lawn and should go off at a very generous price. 6-2-5
Race 8 – The Test, G1 – $500k
4 – Trenchtown Cat – spreading here in the late pick 5, but I’m going to use the big price on the win end. Obviously not the most talented horse in the field, but I think there will be a perfect pace setup for her to sit off and pounce. Will be running away from the friendly confines of Gulfstream Park for the first time, but the 6/29 effort was a career-best and there might be one more level to find today… and she’ll need it. 4-1-3
Race 9 – The Whitney, G1 – $1mil
4 – Thunder Snow – I love this horse. I don’t care that he’s 0-America, and he’s performed very admirably stateside in his last three G1 attempts. This will be his first try going 1 & 1/8, but I’m not deterred as he will likely find himself close to the pace and he has that strong late-kick to stay in the lane. I think it’s possible Preservationist gets to the front early, and if anyone else from his inside goes with him it could set up my top choice and McKenzie for the stalk and pounce exacta. Great betting race, and here’s to the $16 Million Dollar Man. 4-6-8.
Race 10 – The De La Rose – $100k
6 – Zonza – this one fits the “other” Chad category, which is always dangerous in spots like this. She was sneaky good in the last attempt going 7F, and no doubt she’ll be sharper in her third start for the barn. Rosario gets the mount and should have her involved early, and we’re getting a big price for sure. 6-7-8
Race 11
An $80k ALW turf sprint to end the card and the late pick 5 will have me spreading big time. I like the 11 (Three Outlaws) coming off that last effort at the Spa from the undesired rail spot in a turf sprint, so I’ll play him to win. Using 1,4,5,6,8,11,12 to try and close out the late pick 5 and another great Saturday in upstate New York. Good luck everyone!!
2019 Saratoga
Week 1 (7/13): 11: 4-3-0, +47.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $32.50 returned)
Total – 11: 4-3-0, +47.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $32.50 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 338: 83-65-49, -17.2% ($676 wagered, $559.40 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 24.6%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 58.3%