2019-2020 Aqueduct: 102: 22-21-20, -8.9% ROI ($204 wagered, $185.80 returned)
Race 1
6 – Stunning Munnings – her last two have been duds, but against much tougher than what she’ll face in here today on the class drop. She has some early speed, gets Carmouche and draws beautifully outside in the field of six. I like her chances to get back in the win column here. 6-1-3
Race 2
1 – Coach Villa – drops into claiming company from the ALW ranks today for a barn that connects with 23% of their runners off the 31-60 day break. He’s been pretty good over the Big A main in his seven career tries and should get a nice pace setup today with all the speed signed on. Price might drift up a touch from the ML, so this could actually be a nice value play come post. 1-6-3
Race 3
3 – Double Shot – pretty easy single for me here as the David Donk colt looked very sharp in his first two career starts. He’ll face a group littered with first-timers and non-winners of multiple races, and it looks like today is the graduation day for the young runner. 3-5-6
Race 4
1 – Mad Munnys – this is a bit of a value play for me, but I think he might catch first run at the two big speeds to the outside. He got a very similar trip last-out and got the money, and despite there being two other stalking types to his immediate outside I think a clean break can get him into the right spot on the turn. 10-1 ML is the tipping point for me, must-play. 1-4-2.
Race 5
2 – We Should Talk – Jeff Englehart claimed this gelding off a nice win right here at the Big A and bumps him up slightly today in hope of making it two in a row. He’s never missed the exacta in three tries at seven panels and might find himself on the early lead today. He can carry the speed at a nice price I believe. 2-4-5
Race 6
3 – Scuttlebuzz – another single in a maiden race, this one trained by Jonathan Thomas. The barn hits big on two key angles; 35% on the 61-80 day break and 33% with maiden second-timers. The debut came right before the new year over today’s 6.5F distance and he closed tremendously before finishing third, and he should be too much for this bunch to handle. 3-5-4
Race 7
5 – Captain Frost – a Linda Rice special! She’s taking an easy winner from the $8k claiming ranks and throwing him right back into pretty heavy allowance company here. Seems like an aggressive move, but she does well across the board in spots like this and gets Carmouche to takeover for Lezcano today. The colt is three for four at today’s distance and has all of those triumphs right here at Aqueduct. Watch the tote and follow the money on this one… 5-4-9
Race 8
2 – Patagonia – the Jonathan Thomas colt won very sharply in the slop over two turns on New Year’s Eve over this surface, showing the late-kick he’ll almost certainly need jumping up into stakes company this afternoon. I’m a bit worried that Leitone might get loose up front, but a few of the bombs have enough speed that they could make things uncomfortable. The works have been nice since the maiden victory and I think a forward move puts him very much in the mix here. 2-1-9
Race 9
7 – Flash Drive – comes in from Parx off a rough race and a few nice works prior, so I’m getting mixed signals heading into this. He does have good early zip in a field that’s lacking, so maybe he gets loose and doesn’t look back. He does have two wins locally and is six for 11 hitting the triple at the distance. 7-4-2
Have a great Saturday everyone!
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
Week 2 (11/9) – 10: 0-1-4, -100% ($20 wagered, zero returned)
Week 3 (12/7) – 10: 2-2-2. -53% ($20 wagered, $9.40 returned)
Week 4 (12/14) – 9: 5-1-1, +98.89% ($18 wagered, $35.80 returned)
Week 5 (12/21) – 9: 2-2-2, even ($18 wagered, $17.90 returned)
Week 6 (12/28) – 9: 0-4-1, -100% ($18 wagered, zero returned)
Week 7 (1/4) – 9: 4-0-1, +97.7% ($18 wagered, $35.90 returned)
Week 8 (1/11) – 9: 2-4-2, +18.9% ($18 wagered, $21.40 returned)
Week 9 (1/25) – 9: 1-1-2, -56.1% ($18 wagered, $7.90 returned)
Week 10 (2/8) – 9: 2-2-1. +11.1% ($18 wagered, $20 returned)
Week 11 (2/15) – 9: 2-2-2, +30.5% ($18 wagered, $23.50 returned)
GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 550: 127-109-94, -16.0% ($1,100 wagered, $923.80 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.1%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 60.0%
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)